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China nukes to be pointed at U.S. - - - - - - - - - - - - By John J. Lumpkin Jan. 9, 2002 | WASHINGTON -- China is expected to have between 75 and 100 long-range nuclear missiles pointed at the United States by 2015, roughly quadruple the current number, according to a CIA report released Wednesday. Many of those intercontinental ballistic missiles will be on mobile launchers, helping China maintain a nuclear deterrent against the vastly larger U.S. missile force, says the report, titled "Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015." Echoing earlier intelligence estimates, the report also says North Korea and Iran will probably have long-range missiles capable of reaching the United States by 2015. These assessments have been used to justify U.S. plans for multibillion-dollar missile defense systems capable of shooting down a limited ICBM attack on the continental United States. The report draws together information and analyses from the CIA and other U.S. intelligence. Currently, China has about 20 silos with CSS-4 nuclear ICBMs capable of reaching the United States, the report says. It also has a few medium-range, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and probably one submarine from which to launch them. The Chinese military is developing three new missile systems, all of which could be fielded by 2010, the report says. The Chinese may also be able to mount multiple-independent re-entry vehicles - MIRVs - on its older silo-based missiles. These enable a single missile to launch warheads at several targets, vastly increasing potential damage. China sees an expanded ICBM force necessary to overcome a U.S. missile defense system, maintaining its ability to strike the U.S. mainland. This would provide a deterrent during a conflict over Taiwan. While U.S. officials insist the missile defense program is to defeat strikes by North Korea and other "rogue" nations, some of those proposed defenses might have been sufficient to shoot down all 20 Chinese ICBMs. Eighty missiles would be too many, however. China also is expanding its short-range ballistic missile force, and will probably have several hundred by 2005, the report says. These are armed with conventional warheads which could be used to bombard Taiwan from the Chinese mainland. North Korea, meanwhile, has halted missile flight-testing until at least 2003, although it continues to develop the Taepo Dong-2, a two-stage missile that would be capable of reaching the western United States. North Korea also probably has one or two nuclear weapons that could be mounted on those missiles, the report says. Iran, meanwhile, might be able to test a long-range missile around 2005, the report says, but more likely won't have the capability to do so until 2010. The report reflects some differences of opinion between U.S. intelligence agencies, with one unidentified agency arguing that Iran won't be able to test missiles able to reach the U.S. mainland even by 2015. Its projections also assume each country's political direction will not change significantly during the next 13 years. Ongoing U.N. prohibitions prevent Iraq from importing most of the equipment and expertise it needs to create an ICBM, the report says, but if those were lifted, Iraq could rapidly develop such weapons with substantial foreign assistance. Russia's strategic missile force will continue to get smaller, but Russia will still have far and away the largest nuclear missile inventory capable of hitting the United States, the report says. Terrorists aren't expected to employ long-range missiles to deliver nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction on the United States, the report says. "Ships, trucks, airplanes and other means may be used," it says. Associated Press http://www.salon.com/news/wire/2002/01/09/china_nukes/index.html ==^================================================================ This email was sent to: archive@jab.org EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.a9WB2D Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================
