HTTP://WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK
---------------------------
The new front
Somali warlords await US rematch
JONATHAN CLAYTON, MOGADISHU
IT IS little more than a dusty track now, lined by a few breeze blocks and huts with corrugated roofs. Pieces of the twisted mass of metal and rotors remain, but the bullets and carnage are long gone.

It is difficult to imagine that this was the place where, in 1993, American foreign policy was irrevocably changed.

Thanks to Hollywood, however, this corner of Mogadishu, one of the world’s most godforsaken capitals, is back on the map. Black Hawk Down, which opened in Britain last week, tells how the world’s greatest superpower lost a high-tech helicopter to a ragtag bunch of rebels in this dilapidated maze of poverty-stricken streets.

Another crashed two miles away as elite Rangers botched an operation to arrest the henchmen of Mohamed Farah Aideed, the Somali warlord who dared take on America’s might. In the ensuing battle, 19 American soldiers and more than 500 Somalis died.

The film has brought back bitter memories just as the Bush administration prepares for vengeance in the Horn of Africa. It is seeking to avenge not only the lost soldiers but also the 224 people who died in the bombing of US embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam in 1998 and those killed in the September 11 attacks on America.

As long as a decade ago intelligence experts were linking Islamic radicalism in the region with the influence of Osama Bin Laden. The CIA now believes it has enough evidence — much of it provided by Aideed’s son — to justify a possible return mission to Somalia.

Most of any action would probably be taken by a proxy force, probably the Ethiopians. They are implacably opposed to the transitional government in Somalia which is said to retain links with groups linked to Bin Laden’s Al-Qaeda network.

“I am pretty sure there will be some sort of intervention — maybe a snatch, maybe air support of an Ethiopian-led ground offensive — within the next few weeks,” said one senior diplomatic source.

The sense of anticipation has intensified as American and British warships patrol off Somalia’s coast, searching for Al-Qaeda fugitives. The CIA has beefed up its presence in the region, and the SAS has carried out reconnaissance.

The US intervention in 1993 was intended to shore up a United Nations peacekeeping effort that was struggling to keep food aid out of the hands of Aideed and rival clan factions. On October 3 Black Hawks swooped into the middle of Mogadishu in an operation to seize two senior lieutenants of Aideed at a large house where they were meeting.

The mission was meant to take one hour; instead the Americans were surrounded by thousands of Somalis and took 15 hours to extricate themselves. The bodies of dead Rangers were dragged joyously through the streets.

Intelligence reports claim Bin Laden called Somalia his “greatest victory”, saying: “It is true my associates fought with Farah Aideed’s forces against the US forces.”

CIA agents have increasingly turned their attention to the group Al-Itihaad al-Islamiya (Unity of Islam), thought to be responsible for a string of attacks on aid workers during the 1990s.

The agents have found themselves indebted to Hussein Aideed, whose father was killed in a clan battle in 1996. The son studied at Fort Lauderdale military academy and served as an American marine. He is now based in Ethiopia and, according to diplomatic sources, recently handed over his father’s files to Washington.

Two of Bin Laden’s senior operatives — Mohamed Atef, killed in Afghanistan, and Mohamed Sadeek Odeh, recently jailed for life for the embassy bombings, are known to have visited Al-Itihaad training camps in Somalia in the early 1990s.

The Somali government claims the camps have long been destroyed, but intelligence sources said two of the group’s big players could still be in the country: Hassan Dahir Aweys, one of its former military leaders, and Abdi Hassan Turki, wanted in connection with the embassy bombings. Either would be a tempting target for the Americans.

The latest developments in both Hollywood and Washington are being closely watched by the local warlords. One of the elder Aideed’s closest associates, Ali Hassan Osman Ato, said he wanted a “cut” from the profits of the film, in which he is depicted as the former leader’s financier.

Far from the heroes portrayed in Black Hawk Down, many of the Americans were distinctly cowed. One television tape circulating recently showed Rangers taking refuge from the fighting in a Koranic school. Terrified children and teachers tried to take cover, but several were caught in crossfire while the troops trampled over their wooden writing boards.

It is thought most unlikely in Mogadishu that American soldiers will be seen again in the deadly labyrinth of back streets, or that westerners will be welcome in the foreseeable future. Somalis are too proud to see any commercial potential in the film. “Go away,” shouted one man whose home was destroyed in 1993. “We don’t want you here.”

 

Bomb assault ‘a waste of effort’
A LEADING US government consultant has warned that an Afghanistan-style assault on presumed terrorist targets in Somalia might prove “an expensive and pointless exercise in rearranging rocks”, writes Tony Allen-Mills.

Ken Menkhaus, a North Carolina-based academic who advises the CIA, the Pentagon and the State Department on Somalia, said last week that only 10-12 Somalis had significant links to Osama Bin Laden’s Al-Qaeda network.

In a briefing paper, he claimed that reliable US intelligence was “exceedingly low”, increasing the risk of a repeat of the botched American intervention in 1993.

Washington believes that Al-Itihaad, the radical Somali Islamist movement, may be helping to hide fugitives from the Afghan war. Menkhaus acknowledged that some form of American action in Somalia might become “necessary”. But he claimed an attack would have more to do with the “politics of symbolism” than with overcoming any genuine terrorist threat.

In the briefing paper, obtained by The Sunday Times, Menkhaus said there were no Al-Itihaad bases or camps worth bombing. “The handful of bases they held are abandoned,” he said.

A more realistic scenario might involve US special forces or their local allies launching “snatch and grab” operations to seize terrorists. Menkhaus said local authorities in Somalia were falling over one another to co-operate in the hope of securing both cash and political recognition.

“Any non-Somali foolish enough to flee to Somalia stands an excellent chance of being turned over by his ‘hosts’,” the paper said.

An assault against President Abdulkassim Salat Hassan and his precarious so-called Transitional National Government – regarded by some analysts as a front for Al-Itihaad – would be a mistake, said Menkhaus. “The TNG is not a Somali version of the Taliban.”

The best bets for American action were surveillance and a drive to enlist the support of a small group of wealthy Somali businessmen, who are the real power brokers in the country.

 

==^================================================================
This email was sent to: archive@jab.org

EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.a9WB2D
Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED]

T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail!
http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register
==^================================================================

Reply via email to