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http://www.turkishdailynews.com/FrTDN/latest/feature.htm#f1 [FYI] Turkish Daily News March 18, 2002 -In the 1990s, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Turkey, with its strong economy and military, found itself as one of the centers in a vast region stretching from the Balkans to Central Asia, and started to perceive itself not as a marginal European country but as a pivotal Eurasian one. There is no doubt that our statesmen found themselves in an exaggerated exuberance in this period on Turkey's regional role. -"From the Adriatic to the Chinese Wall" became a motto at that time, as the politicians from this region frequented Ankara. Our government backed these countries in economic terms as much as it could, and spent efforts on their memberships in major international organizations. Grabbing the opportunities provided by globalization, our businessmen invested money in this region and increased their trade volume there. One can say that in that period Turkey came to become a strong pivotal state. Turkey still continues to play very important roles in this vast region.... Turkey moves from marginality to center Seyfi Tashan In a 1926 address to the Turkish Parliament, the then Foreign Minister Tevfik Rustu Aras defined Turkey's foreign policy objective as "becoming a regional center." In an effort to realize this objective and in line with the principle of "peace at home, peace in the world," our state, from the first years of the republic until the break out of World War II, initiated a rapprochement era with Greece, signed a non-aggression pact with the Soviet Union, forged the so-called Sadabad Pact, solved the Hatay dispute with Syria, extended a helping hand even to Afghanistan, was invited to join the League of Nations, and took steps in the direction of being a respectable power center in its region. The enormous threat created by a German-Italian alliance in the pre-World War II era led Turkey to seek alliances to guarantee its security, and hence it signed an alliance treaty with Great Britain and France. Turkey also tried to protect itself from aggression through its policy of neutrality during the war years. In the immediate years that followed the war, Turkey acted with great diplomatic skill to be acknowledged as being on the winning side. In the post-war era, Turkey relied on the U.S.-led NATO, and acted, as part of the Western bloc, in its foreign policy in the face of the Soviet threat. In fact, Turkey's importance for the Western bloc stemmed from its strategic position, as the West was aware that without maintaining the security of Turkish territory, it was impossible to guarantee the security of either the Middle East, or the Mediterranean and even Europe; one can say that Turkey's importance to the West was regarded as being a forward base in the region for the West. Despite the West's indifference to Turkey on the Cyprus issue, which Turkey deems as very important, and the famous Cyprus letter by then U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson, Turkey fulfilled all its responsibilities for the Western alliance for the sake of preserving its security. For the same security reasons, Turkey, together with its Western allies, pursued a policy of balance in the Middle East, which was not in fact in line with its true interests, and the intervention in Cyprus was put on hold until 1974 due to restrictions imposed by international conjuncture and Turkey's own military insufficiency. The West's interest in Turkey started to decline in parallel with the emergence and development of the détente period with the Soviet Union. Hence, Turkey was punished with a brief period of an arms embargo in 1975, and Greece was accepted into the European Economic Community (EEC) despite its disputes with Turkey. In the meantime, internal chaos, clashes between leftist and rightist groups, and the collapse in the economy turned Turkey into a marginal state, truly dependent on the West's assistance. In the 1990s, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Turkey, with its strong economy and military, found itself as one of the centers in a vast region stretching from the Balkans to Central Asia, and started to perceive itself not as a marginal European country but as a pivotal Eurasian one. There is no doubt that our statesmen found themselves in an exaggerated exuberance in this period on Turkey's regional role. "From the Adriatic to the Chinese Wall" became a motto at that time, as the politicians from this region frequented Ankara. Our government backed these countries in economic terms as much as it could, and spent efforts on their memberships in major international organizations. Grabbing the opportunities provided by globalization, our businessmen invested money in this region and increased their trade volume there. One can say that in that period Turkey came to become a strong pivotal state. Turkey still continues to play very important roles in this vast region, despite the fact that the "euphoria" of the 1990s has now come to an end, that we started to see the facts in a more realistic manner, and our economic capabilities weakened seriously after the latest crises. On the other hand, in addition to the benefits the geography and our relative strength, we also have to emphasize that Turkish foreign policy faces several problems stemming from the same factor. Our history is ranked first in the list of these problems. Under the boundaries drawn in Lausanne after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire during World War I, great numbers of Turks and people of other nationalities, who converted to Islam during Ottoman rule, were left out of our boundaries. In addition to this, as a result of huge migratory inflows into our country after the Russians reached the Balkans and the Caucasus in 1868, friendly relations between our people and the fleeing people of these regions were formed. Especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the freedom, rights and security of these people emerged as a foreign policy issue for Turkey, and hence Turkish soldiers were sent to Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina. Although the suffering of Turkish-origin people in Bulgaria has been alleviated to a major extent, problems of other Turkish communities in the former Yugoslavia Federation territories, Greece and Iraq are still continuing. The 40-year-old Cyprus problem has become more and more complicated over time, posing a vital issue to be tackled by Turkish foreign policy. In addition, the number of Turks in western Europe has reached 4 million as a result of emigration from Turkey, which has been going on since 1961. Although these Turks face several problems in the countries in which they are live, one should not ignore some positive and important developments for them. Some 62 consulates have been now serving our people in western European countries and some 50,000 Turks in these countries set up their own businesses to become employers. As a central player, Turkey forged and created positive relations with its neighbors despite all the disputes. The Black Sea Economic Cooperation pact, which includes such countries as Russia, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia and Bulgaria, and in which Greece was included as a favor, has been serving the interests of the region successfully, though in a modest manner. The Economic Cooperation Organization, which was merely a joint organization with Iran and Pakistan at the beginning, is now capable of bringing together Azerbaijan and several countries of Central Asia around one table. Turkey is also a participant in the Mediterranean cooperation organization of the European Union, Balkans Stability Pact, and plays an active role in the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC). The entry of Turkey, a member of the Council of Europe and Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), into the EU has been expected as a natural development, yet the membership bid is pervaded by an atmosphere of uncertainty for reasons partly stemming from Turkey and partly from the EU. The norms and structure of the EU have been changing in a dynamic way. The so-called Copenhagen criteria, which was introduced in 1990 for former Eastern bloc countries and, as such, non-existing in 1987, when Turkey applied to the union for full membership, placed Turkey in behind these countries in the list of EU candidates. Although a candidacy status has been secured, a serious uncertainty pervades the future of relations and whether Turkey will be granted full membership status some day. If the EU's Cyprus intentions, formulated in its officials' remarks that Greek Cyprus will be accepted as member to the represent the entire island, happen to be realized in practice, the possibility for Turkey's accession into the union might disappear totally. One should answer these questions here: Could Turkey abandon its political objective of becoming a part of the EU? Or would the Customs Union with the EU, which was originally established as an economic community, be enough? Will NATO membership be enough in the future, as it was in the past, for the maintenance of Turkey's role in European security? Will Turkey still be able to maintain the will and effort necessary to fulfill the objective of "reaching the contemporary level of civilization," as expressed by Kemal Mustafa Atatürk? Answers to these questions are of vital significance for the resolution of domestic and foreign policy problems facing Turkey. Whether an EU member or not, Turkey's restoration of its "regional power" status depends first of all on its internal peace and growth of its economy. We should note here that for the pivotal states to play their role successfully, they should be powerful all the time. A strong pivotal state can spread its influence over neighboring areas, but a weak pivotal state can be subject to foreign powers' extending their influence onto its territory and face the risk of being broken apart. Another point that we should keep in mind is that elements of national power will not be enough to be successful in international relations of the modern day. Just as our political geography requires us to maintain military power as big as our geography, we also know from our history that many wars were won at the negotiation table, and several other wars won on the battlefield were lost again at the table. Although our diplomats are well-educated and skilled personalities, the lack of sufficient expert personnel, deficiencies in logistic capabilities, inadequacy of moral support for them, and finally the fact that the amount of budget allocated for the Foreign Ministry is half of 1 percent of the national budget stand as restrictions for the diplomats' full use of these skills and capacities. The share of funds for diplomacy and political promotion of our country, which is now a pivotal state, should be increased. I also would like to emphasize one more point that should be kept in mind. It should not be forgotten that states at the periphery of a big and strong pivotal state would resist, and form alliances with outsiders and even plot against it in order not to come under its sphere of influence. That means Turkey has to be very careful and responsible in its relations with all its neighbors, from the weakest to the strongest. Policies in regard to these countries should reflect this carefully and responsibly. To put in another way, in addition to strength, a pivotal state should also possess the foresight and discretion in order to maximize its status, to increase its influence and keep away from unnecessary alliances. Before concluding, I want to touch on a very important point: Turkey is on and in the middle of a fault line which crosses between developed, industrialized, democratic countries, respectful for human rights, and other countries which are theocratic, autocratic, backwards in terms of the economy and development. For several decades, Turkey has been trying to align itself with the camp of developed states and shaped its domestic and foreign policies to serve the achievement of this objective. We have witnessed efforts on the part of domestic and foreign circles to push Turkey to the other side of the fault line. We should not make any mistake even in matters that may seem trivial, while we try to achieve our objective, by struggling against these efforts. With its big military power, qualified manpower and rising cultural values, Turkey, a center of multiple civilizations, will continue to develop fast, once it overcomes its current crisis, and continue on its way as a country whose growth befits its region. Seyfi Tashan, the head of the Ankara-based Foreign Policy Institute __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! 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