HTTP://WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK --------------------------- China Thinking Seriously About U.S. Nuclear Threat
22 March 2002 Summary
Chinese state media ran an article March 21 hailing President Jiang Zemin's dedication to and trust in China's strategic missile forces. The report reveals Beijing's growing understanding of the seriousness of the recent change in U.S. nuclear doctrine. With its limited nuclear deterrent, China will now become much more conscientious about the issue of U.S. missile defense. Analysis State-run Chinese media issued a report March 21 outlining the importance President Jiang Zemin places on the nation's strategic missile forces. The article, "Forging the Republic's Shield of Peace," opened with a 46-year-old quote from Mao Zedong: "We not only need more airplanes and cannons, but also need atom bombs. In the world today, we cannot do without this thing [atom bomb], if we do not want to be bullied by others!" The report, jointly drafted by the Xinhua news agency, the People's Daily, the Liberation Army Daily and China Central Television (CCTV), is part of Beijing's response to the changing nuclear doctrine of the United States. China's leaders now clearly understand the seriousness of Washington's shift in nuclear policy and are anxious to remind the United States that China -- unlike North Korea, Iraq or Iran -- possesses significant second-strike capabilities. China maintains a relatively small nuclear arsenal compared to Russian and U.S. nuclear force. Although Beijing can now tout its Second Artillery unit as "capable of dealing a self-defense counterblow to, and in-depth conventional counterattack on, the enemy," as the article claimed, U.S. missile defense plans pose a particular problem for China's strategic planners. If the United States is serious about using nuclear weapons -- and Beijing believes it is -- a U.S. missile defense shield could mean the difference between China being on or off the viable target list. Chinese leaders expressed shock and anger at the U.S. Nuclear Posture Review that was leaked in early March. The review reportedly listed China as one of seven countries against which Washington was prepared to use nuclear weapons. At the time, Beijing was already reeling from the stationing of U.S. military forces in Central Asia, expanded U.S. military exercises in Southeast Asia and Washington's "double standard" in the war against terrorism. For Beijing, China's inclusion on the list of nuclear targets was just one more example of U.S. hegemonic goals and Washington's desire to contain China. Beijing has now apparently reassessed the U.S. nuclear threat and determined that it is very real. Washington is fighting a war, and in wartime political niceties often fall by the wayside. Yet Beijing is not yet in a war with Washington and has little desire to enter one, so the joint article offered an opportunity to deliver a message to the United States that China can and will retaliate against any tactical nuclear strike on its territory. China's ability to respond militarily to an actual nuclear strike, however, is limited. Unlike Russia, which still has thousands of nuclear warheads, China's arsenal is measured in the hundreds. Furthermore, China maintains some 20 to 24 silo-based Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) and a smaller number of submarine-launched nuclear-capable missiles (SLBMs). China is also developing truck-mobile ICBMs and a new generation of SLBMs. These would expand the country's second-strike abilities by making it harder to target China's nuclear assets. Even with the new systems, which are set to go into service over the next few years, China's retaliatory capabilities are small. Beijing's nuclear deterrent could be further eroded by U.S. plans to build and deploy missile defense systems. Right now, China's nuclear forces remain large enough to serve as a deterrent in all but the most extreme cases. If the United States were to deploy a successful system capable of knocking out incoming missiles, even in limited quantities, that equation would shift. Beijing is left with limited options. It is unlikely to bow to Washington, but neither is it capable of challenging the United States militarily, politically or economically. China cannot engage in an arms race with the United States: Washington already has a massive head start, Beijing doesn't want to go the way of the Soviet Union and China lacks the financial or technical resources for such a race, if it even wanted to engage in one. With China's leaders understanding the seriousness of Washington's altered nuclear doctrine, missile defense will become an even more important issue in Beijing. --------------------------- ANTI-NATO INFORMATION LIST ==^================================================================ This email was sent to: archive@jab.org EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.a9617B Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================ |
