HTTP://WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK --------------------------- STRATFOR The Mysteries of Saudi Troop Deployments Unusual reports of Saudi troop movements along the northern border with Jordan have raised several questions. The movements -- ostensibly in response to an Israeli military buildup or, as Riyadh claims, a routine military maneuver -- more likely reflect the government's growing concern with domestic instability. Analysis The official Saudi Press Agency confirmed April 23 that Saudi troops were deployed over the past two weeks to the northwestern region of Tabuk. The deployment included 8,000 troops, or a total of eight brigades, equipped with missile launchers and driving armored personnel carriers, Agence France-Presse reported. Several explanations for the deployment are possible. An unnamed Gulf military official quoted by AFP said the maneuver came in response to an Israeli military buildup near the Jordanian border. The Saudi Press Agency denied this claim, asserting that the deployment was routine. Another, more likely possibility is that the movement was triggered by a wave of political unrest that swept through Saudi Arabia in early April. Although the reason for the deployment remains in question, it does illustrate the growing import of even the smallest events in the kingdom. Despite an appearance of calm, a well of dissatisfaction with the royal family bubbles just below the surface of Saudi society. How deep this dissatisfaction runs and how widespread it is remain unclear, but what is certain is that the government in Riyadh recognizes the danger and is responding with several unusual maneuvers to quell dissent. But using the armed forces to launch a security crackdown of some sort, even if in response to increased dissent, would abrogate the House of Saud's social contract with the nations' many tribes and invite political and social chaos. The recent deployment doesn't necessarily indicate a forthcoming crackdown, but it does raise concerns about stability in the region. Tabuk is in Saudi Arabia's northwestern quadrant -- just south of Jordan and west of Sakakah, the scene of recent rioting. It is home to the Northwest Area Command at King Abdul Aziz Military City. It also hosts the Royal Saudi Land Forces 7th Armor, 8th Infantry, 12th Armor and 14th Infantry brigades; the RSLF Airborne School and Brigade; the RSLF Armor Institute and the King Faisal Air Base with the F-5 2nd Squadron. There is also a U.S. Military Training Mission based outside the city. If Riyadh were expecting trouble in the region, reinforcing the military units in Tabuk would make perfect sense. Given the tense situation in the region, the claim that the troops were sent in response to Israeli military activity near the kingdom's border with Jordan is also, at first glance, plausible. According to AFP's Gulf military source, the Saudi military was responding to Israeli air force activity near the border. But Saudi officials claimed Israel was massing troops along the Jordanian border, The Associated Press reported April 23. It is highly unlikely that Jordan would not have responded in some way to an Israeli buildup, and nothing in the way of diplomatic protests or military movements has emerged from the Hashemite kingdom. Israel did raise the security alert level in the southern Negev region -- which is separated from Saudi Arabia by only a 15.5-mile strip of Jordanian territory -- on April 9, about the same time the Saudi troops movements began. But a number of potential explanations exist for the security alert, which came during the Israeli military offensive in the West Bank. For instance, Israel reportedly plans to open an internment camp for Palestinians outside of Beersheeba in the Negev. Trouble with Palestinian gunmen in Gaza also may have triggered the alert, as could reports of Egyptians carrying explosives and trying to cross into Israel from the Sinai Peninsula. The Saudi deployment to Tabuk is too far from the border with Iraq or any other Gulf states to suggest that problems with those nations prompted the movement. A second possibility is that Riyadh sent forces to the region to scout out potential al Qaeda hideouts. Unconfirmed rumors surfaced last year that Osama bin Laden and his supporters were using the mountainous deserts of Wadi Rum, south of the ancient Jordanian city of Petra, as sanctuary. Tabuk is about 62 miles south of the Jordanian border, with easy access to the valley, and indirect evidence ties bin Laden to the area. In the late 1960s, after his father died in a helicopter crash, bin Laden traveled to Tabuk to live with his mother. Moreover, one of the men involved in the 1998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania -- Mohammed Sadiq Howaida, also known as Odeh -- is from Tabuk. More recently, bin Laden mentioned the region specifically in a video statement broadcast by the Al-Jazeera television network in December, asking "What will stop Israel from killing our sons tomorrow in Tabuk, in Al-Jawf and around these areas?" And at least one imam, or prayer leader, in the region has been fired, arrested and ultimately released for supporting bin Laden. With his talks with U.S. President George W. Bush imminent, Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah may have welcomed the idea of searching the region so he could point out to Bush that the Saudi government was in fact taking measures to root out al Qaeda supporters. Riyadh's unwillingness to cooperate in the hunt for al Qaeda and the number of Saudis allegedly involved in the Sept. 11 attacks have strained relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia. A third, and perhaps the most likely, possible purpose for the deployment concerns mounting internal dissent. Sporadic protests broke out all over Saudi Arabia in early April, stretching from Dhahran, Damman and Qatif in the east to Riyadh and Jeddah in the west. In the northern city of Sakakah -- in the Al-Jawf province mentioned by bin Laden -- there were conflicting reports of a protest numbering either 300 or 3,000, during which rioters threw stones at police and security forces were forced to use tear gas to restore calm. Protests are illegal in Saudi Arabia, and the outbursts -- though ostensibly triggered by the Israeli offensive in the West Bank -- also hint at emerging opposition to the Saudi government. Interior Minister Prince Naif specifically mentioned the Sakakah rally in a speech a few days later, dismissing it as the work of a few passionate youngsters demonstrating solidarity with the Palestinians. But he also warned that the government would not tolerate further protests. The reason behind the troop movement remains unclear, with more questions than answers at the moment. It could have been contingency planning, it could have been routine maneuvers, it could have been aimed at intimidating the region's population and maintaining calm. Ironically, the range of possibilities crystallizes the number of problems plaguing the royal family. At the moment, it is too early to tell just what is behind the troop movements. But the incident is too interesting and important to ignore, so STRATFOR invites readers to send insights regarding these events. Please send your messages to [EMAIL PROTECTED]. --------------------------- ANTI-NATO INFORMATION LIST ==^================================================================ This email was sent to: archive@jab.org EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.a9617B Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================ |
