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STRATFOR Indonesia: U.S. Capitalizing On "New" Rebel Group =================================== 23 July 2002 Summary Washington is using the alleged emergence of a new Islamic militant group in Southeast Asia to begin resuming military training with Indonesia. The United States wants to maintain stability in the country and keep it from being exploited by al Qaeda. Analysis After a full year in office, Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri is becoming politically weaker domestically, relying more and more on the military. At the same time, Washington has found an opening to resume military ties with Indonesia. The Jakarta Post marked her one-year anniversary July 23 by criticizing her indecisiveness and lack of military and economic reform. However, at the same time the U.S. Senate has voted to renew military cooperation with Indonesia through the International Military Education and Training program, which had been terminated due to violence surrounding the East Timor independence referendum in 1999. Although a ban on weapons sales and other military assistance would remain, if the U.S. Congress renews the training program, it would be a first step toward fuller ties. Despite past reticence, Washington will work with Indonesia's armed forces to keep the country -- home to more than 200 million Muslims -- on an even course and from becoming a sanctuary for al Qaeda. The program would also further empower Indonesia's military -- long criticized for human rights abuses -- at a time when it is stepping up its anti-separatist campaigns and when its importance to Megawati has grown. Arbi Sanit, a political analyst at the University of Indonesia, told the Jakarta Post that "in terms of democracy, we are seeing a regression." Indonesia's government is already a fragile system standing on a warped definition of democracy. The military is the strongest link maintaining cohesion among the country's 17,000 islands. Last month Megawati supported former military commander Sutiyoso in his re-election bid for Jakarta governor, despite criticism from within her own party, in order to ensure stability in the capital and continued backing from the military. Rather than reform the military, Megawati is moving closer to the armed forces, including supporting plans for a renewed assault against separatists in Aceh. Under Megawati, the government has also made steps to once again centralize power. On July 19, the Straits Times reported that, in an alteration of the autonomy laws, the government was shifting power from regents to the governors. With both Washington and Jakarta now regarding stability as the top concern in Indonesia, an alleged new Islamic militant group may help tighten ties between the two countries. Indonesia's police chief said last week that a group called Nusantara is now operating in Indonesia and other Southeast Asian states. The sudden appearance of the heretofore unknown group -- whose purported international influence would make it ripe for ties to al Qaeda -- is certainly convenient, as it gives the United States an excuse to become more involved in Indonesia. It also likely prompted the Senate -- after months of consideration about whether and to what degree to re-engage with Indonesia's military -- to approve a resumption of training with the country's armed forces. And moving against a "new" militant group allows Jakarta to avoid the internal uproar that would result by cracking down on an already active local faction Approving a meager $400,000 for the International Military Education and Training program in 2003 is not a significant degree of help, but it is a start. The Pentagon is determined to ensure that the government in Jakarta does not collapse, and it cares less about how Indonesia's military might use the training in eradicating the Free Aceh Movement and similar rebel groups. --------------------------- ANTI-NATO INFORMATION LIST ==^================================================================ This email was sent to: archive@jab.org EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.bacIlu Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================
