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http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1031119367001&p=1012571727166 Financial Times September 17, 2002 Demands of EU and Nato temper Slovak poll fever By Robert Anderson and Stefan Wagstyl -The west said Slovakia must abandon Mr Meciar or jeopardise its chances of securing its much-desired membership of Nato or the EU. -A western diplomat in Bratislava says: "Yes, we have interfered in the internal affairs of Slovakia. We have done so successfully." -The demands of EU and Nato entry will also limit the new government's freedom of manoeuvre on policy. With or without Mr Fico, accession will continue to dominate policy-making. At an election rally in the industrial town of Nove Mesto at the weekend Vladimir Meciar, Slovakia's veteran political strongman, harangued the government and talked warmly of his love of the family, the church and the soil of Slovakia. At the end of his speech, a woman called out: "I know a lot of families where they hang your photograph next to the Pope's. Please don't give up." After four years out of office, the former prime minister is fighting to make a comeback in parliamentary elections this Friday and Saturday. But he is losing - and he knows it. He pleased the crowd in Nove Mesto, but has looked tired and irritable elsewhere. At one point last week he lashed out at a journalist who asked awkward questions. Any hope Mr Meciar harboured of returning to office has virtually been destroyed by a very public diplomatic campaign by the US and the European Union. Western officials made clear Mr Meciar's authoritarian behaviour in his last government in 1994-98 disqualified him as a political partner. The west said Slovakia must abandon Mr Meciar or jeopardise its chances of securing its much-desired membership of Nato or the EU. Leaders of other mainstream parties have isolated Mr Meciar. While he continues to lead Slovakia's largest political party, HZDS, he will almost certainly be excluded from any governing coalition. A western diplomat in Bratislava says: "Yes, we have interfered in the internal affairs of Slovakia. We have done so successfully." The diplomatic pressure has contributed to turmoil inside Mr Meciar's party, which in the summer split, with a breakaway faction led by Ivan Gasparovic, once one of Mr Meciar's most loyal lieutenants, forming a new party called the HZD. According to opinion polls, the HZD could take 6 to 8 per cent of the vote, taking HZDS support down from more than 25 per cent to below 20 per cent. However, the ruling centre-right coalition has failed to take electoral advantage of Mr Meciar's troubles. Mikulas Dzurinda, the prime minister, has won praise overseas for his reforms, including privatisation. But with unemployment at 19 per cent and allegations of corruption widespread, few Slovaks want to give the government any credit. The coalition partners - consisting of Mr Dzurinda's Slovak Democratic and Christian Union (SDKU), the Christian Democrats (KDU), and the ethnic Hungarian SMK - are expected to win around 30 per cent of the vote - some 5 percentage points less than in 1998. With voters fed up with the established parties, the big election winners are likely to be two new personality-based movements - Robert Fico's SMER and Pavol Rusko's Ano. The dynamic Mr Fico has made the largest gains, occupying the political centre with a mix of populism and clever campaigning financed by wealthy business people who used to back Mr Meciar. The 37-year-old lawyer has made contradictory promises - pledging to work for EU entry, for example, while annoying Brussels by demanding a re-opening of certain negotiating chapters. He says he appeals to all Slovaks, but has made ugly remarks about gypsies. Like many Slovaks, he retains a hankering for the protective state of communist times, but his economic advisers promise market reforms. Whoever the real Mr Fico may be, voters love him. From zero three years ago, SMER's opinion poll support has reached 17 per cent - about equal to Mr Meciar's. EU diplomats say that despite his populist outbursts, Mr Fico could be an acceptable and even an effective prime minister. Mr Rusko, a television magnate often called Slovakia's Berlusconi (after Italy's prime minister Silvio Berlusconi) has also capitalised on public disaffection with established politicians but with less success than Mr Fico. With his liberal economic programme, Mr Rusko is a possible ally for the ruling centre-right coalition. Opinion polls give him 9 per cent. The ruling coalition will need the support of either Mr Fico or Mr Rusko or both. Mr Fico has set a high price for his backing - the prime minister's office. Mr Dzurinda and his colleagues say ruling with a majority of one is better than dealing with Mr Fico. But this is campaign talk. In the post-election bargaining, promises made in the heat of battle will be set aside. Jan Figel, chief negotiator with the EU, said post-election negotiations would be very tough. However, international deadlines will concentrate minds. Bratislava wants a government in office for Nato's Prague summit in November, when Slovakia hopes to be among several countries joining the alliance. It also needs new ministers in place for EU entry negotiations planned to finish by the end of the year. The demands of EU and Nato entry will also limit the new government's freedom of manoeuvre on policy. With or without Mr Fico, accession will continue to dominate policy-making. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! 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