HTTP://WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK ---------------------------
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/23_09_02/art17.asp The Daily Star (Lebanon) September 23, 2002 [A pro-Washington perspective, but an indication of how advanced the West's new Great Game in the 'Eurasian Balkans' [Zbigniew Brzezinski] has advanced.] Crisis in the Caspian: US-backed pipeline could intensify Russian threats to Georgia Washington unlikely to give Moscow freer hand, even in return for support against Baghdad Ed Blanche Special to The Daily Star -If Moscow makes good on those threats, the rapport it has built with the United States, the pipeline’s staunchest advocate, since Sept. 11, 2001, will be jeopardized. -[G]iven the differences between Washington and Moscow over the Bush administration’s plans for “regime change” in Baghdad, Russia’s construction of a nuclear reactor in Iran and its involvement in Tehran’s ballistic missile program, what happens in Georgia could prove to be fateful indeed for the future of the US-Russian rapprochement and Western efforts to find alternative sources of energy to lessen dependence on the Middle East. -Russian military commanders, angered at Putin’s post-Sept. 11 agreement to allow US forces into the former Soviet republics in Central Asia and the Caucasus as part of George W. Bush’s war against Al-Qaeda and the Taleban, are urging deeper and heavier attacks into Georgian territory, citing Bush’s policy of pre-emptive strikes against terrorist groups. The Russians are also concerned as US forces deployed in five Central Asian states following Sept. 11 are showing signs of digging in for a long stay, partly as they will be needed to help stabilize Afghanistan and to contribute to “nation-building” in those former Soviet republics Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan also happen to sit atop vast quantities of oil and natural gas. General Tommy Franks, head of the US Central Command responsible for Afghanistan, said last month that US forces would remain in Afghanistan “for a long, long time.” None of this will help ease the confrontation looming in the Caucasus. -US leaders see Shevardnadze’s fate as vital in the strategic, oil-rich region because Georgia has been the most Western-oriented former Soviet republic other than the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. -For Western oil giants like BP (the key operator in Azerbaijan) and ChevronTexaco and ExxonMobil (majority stakeholders in Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field) the Caspian is one of the few regions in the world where foreign companies can own a piece of the action. British Petroleum’s mid-September laying of the first section of a $2.9 billion pipeline to carry Caspian Sea oil through Georgia to Turkey’s Mediterranean coast, a project that will diminish Moscow’s influence in the energy-rich region, coincided with mounting Russian threats to take military action against an alleged Chechen rebel stronghold in Georgia. If Moscow makes good on those threats, the rapport it has built with the United States, the pipeline’s staunchest advocate, since Sept. 11, 2001, will be jeopardized. Sept. 11 marked a sea change in Moscow’s relations with the West, but at a price the US and Europe muted criticism of alleged Russian atrocities in its floundering, costly “anti-terrorist” war against Islamist Chechen separatists, soon to enter its fourth year. That Western silence may now end. And given the differences between Washington and Moscow over the Bush administration’s plans for “regime change” in Baghdad, Russia’s construction of a nuclear reactor in Iran and its involvement in Tehran’s ballistic missile program, what happens in Georgia could prove to be fateful indeed for the future of the US-Russian rapprochement and Western efforts to find alternative sources of energy to lessen dependence on the Middle East. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared in a blunt warning to the embattled administration of Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze on the anniversary of the suicide attacks on the US that if Tbilisi did not move against the Chechen rebels and “international terrorists” holed up in the Pankisi Gorge on the 80-kilometer border with Chechnya, Russia reserved the right to send its forces in to destroy the rebel stronghold. The Duma, lower house of Russia’s Parliament, backed Putin and said Moscow should cut off economic aid and electricity supplies to energy-starved Georgia for failing to destroy the Chechens in the gorge. On Sept. 12, Putin said in a letter to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan that UN Security Council Resolution 1368, approved following the suicide attacks on the US, gave Moscow the right to attack Chechen rebel bases in Georgia in self-defense. “If the Georgian authorities do not undertake concrete actions aimed at destroying terrorists, and if militants continue their raids into Russia from Georgia, Russia “will undertake appropriate measures to counter this terrorist threat,” he wrote, implying that if America could attack Iraq, Russia could take action in Georgia. There was widespread speculation Moscow was seeking a quid pro quo from Washington withdrawing Russian opposition to a US strike against Saddam Hussein in return for the Americans looking the other way over Georgia. US Under-Secretary of State John Bolton declared in Moscow earlier this month that no such deal was possible. The Bush administration has warned Moscow not to take unilateral action, with State Department spokesman Philip Reeker declaring on Sept. 13: “We take strong exception to statements by President Putin threatening action against Chechen targets on Georgian territory.” Whether the Russian threat was diplomatic posturing remains unclear. But Russian military commanders, angered at Putin’s post-Sept. 11 agreement to allow US forces into the former Soviet republics in Central Asia and the Caucasus as part of George W. Bush’s war against Al-Qaeda and the Taleban, are urging deeper and heavier attacks into Georgian territory, citing Bush’s policy of pre-emptive strikes against terrorist groups. The Russians are also concerned as US forces deployed in five Central Asian states following Sept. 11 are showing signs of digging in for a long stay, partly as they will be needed to help stabilize Afghanistan and to contribute to “nation-building” in those former Soviet republics Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan also happen to sit atop vast quantities of oil and natural gas. General Tommy Franks, head of the US Central Command responsible for Afghanistan, said last month that US forces would remain in Afghanistan “for a long, long time.” None of this will help ease the confrontation looming in the Caucasus. Georgia’s intelligence chief, Avtandil Ioseliani, alleged last week that Russia was planning to infiltrate a special unit of pro-Moscow Chechens across the border into the Pankisi Gorge to provoke bloodshed that Moscow could use to justify a major operation in Georgia. Russian officials denied that but conceded that Moscow would like a “security zone” up to 40 kilometers deep into Georgia territory shades of Israel’s so-called “security zone” in South Lebanon until May 2000. Georgia’s deputy minister for state security, Lasha Natsvlishvili, flatly rejected such a proposal, saying it was tantamount to Russia demanding it control a large swathe of Georgian territory almost to Tbilisi itself. As the crisis has deepened, Moscow has mounted air strikes against the Chechen bases in Georgia several times in recent months. In August, European observers confirmed Georgian reports that Russian combat jets and helicopters had crossed into Georgian territory at least twice to bomb the gorge. An overt, unilateral Russian attack would threaten to reignite unrest in a region where security is tentative at best and where ethnic rivalries are deep and strong. Most Georgians resent the presence of Russian soldiers manning two bases in Georgia a holdover from the Soviet era and the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two regions bordering Russia that have been de facto independent states since separatists fought Georgia’s military to a standstill in the 1990s. Tensions in the Caspian and its environs have been building for some time. Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, three of the Caspian littoral states, staged large-scale naval maneuvers in August in what was intended to reassert Russian influence in the region at a time when Moscow is in dispute with Iran over how the Caspian’s riches can be divided. The exercises were the biggest Russian maneuvers in the region since the Soviet collapse more than a decade ago, involving 10,000 personnel, 60 warships and 30 combat aircraft. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov announced during the exercises that Russia and some of its Caspian neighbors such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, which have signed agreements with Moscow on sharing resources in the land-locked region may form a new military defense force in the region. He said that due to regional “threats,” the situation “dictates a need for cooperation among our neighbors in the Caspian.” Construction on the 1,750-kilometer pipeline from Azerbaijan’s Baku oil fields through Georgia to Ceyhan on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast, one of the longest pipelines ever built, sharpens the focus of turmoil in the Caucasus on Georgia. It is certain to intensify Moscow’s animosity toward Shevardnadze’s government, which is struggling to maintain order in the former Soviet republic, beset by worsening economic decline and political feuding. The prospect of a major Russian military incursion remains uncertain, despite Moscow’s saber-rattling, and there has been speculation that Putin’s tough talk was intended to appease military commanders increasingly frustrated at their forces’ inability to crush the Chechen separatists. But Russian accusations that Georgia is harboring Chechen rebels are becoming increasingly shrill. Under pressure, Shevardnadze ordered an intensified operation by his ill-equipped military against the Chechen rebels, but that has cut little ice with Moscow, which has long sought to get rid of Shevardnadze, particularly since he has cultivated close ties with the US. Washington views Georgia as a key ally in the unstable Caucasus and will not permit any Russian action that would further destabilize the country. US leaders see Shevardnadze’s fate as vital in the strategic, oil-rich region because Georgia has been the most Western-oriented former Soviet republic other than the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Although US-Russian relations have warmed considerably since Sept. 11 and Moscow had seemed to be easing its opposition to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, Washington remains fearful that Moscow seeks to sabotage the project to reassert regional control. For Western oil giants like BP (the key operator in Azerbaijan) and ChevronTexaco and ExxonMobil (majority stakeholders in Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field) the Caspian is one of the few regions in the world where foreign companies can own a piece of the action. In the Middle East, oil industries are state-owned and in Siberia, where mineral riches remain largely untapped, Russian companies hold all the cards. So turmoil in the Caspian and Caucasus would probably give Big Oil pause for thought, if not pulling out altogether, leaving Russia to dominate once more while billions of investment dollars are redirected to regions such as West Africa and South America. The stakes are mounting daily for everyone. Russian action in Georgia now could undercut Bush’s crusade against terrorism as he seeks to secure international support for going after Saddam, and enflame the crisis in Asia as well as the Middle East. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Finance - Get real-time stock quotes http://finance.yahoo.com --------------------------- ANTI-NATO INFORMATION LIST ==^================================================================ This email was sent to: archive@jab.org EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.bacIlu Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================
