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http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=13407

Stars And Stripes
March 5, 2003

Jones takes wait-and-see attitude about Turkey
movement 
By Jon R. Anderson


-U.S. officials are waiting to see whether Turkish
leaders can regroup in time — and before U.S. patience
also runs out — to push through parliament approval
for positioning about 60,000 American troops, 255 jets
and 65 helicopters for an invasion of northern Iraq. 
-Defense officials, speaking Sunday on condition of
anonymity, said Gen. Tommy Franks, who would command a
U.S. war in Iraq, had not decided to give up on
Turkey. Franks told The Associated Press last week
that his war plans are flexible and take into account
such problems.
-Some 3,500 U.S. troops — many of them from the
Germany-based 1st Infantry Division and 21st Theater
Support Command — already are in Turkey to lay the
groundwork for a U.S. invasion force.
-If the door is closed to heavy armored units rolling
through Turkey into northern Iraq, lighter airborne
units such as the Italy-based Southern European Task
Force could be used to seize airfields to open an air
bridge into the region. 
-“Maybe they would just turn a blind eye and pretend
not to see...."
-Another option, said one senior Pentagon official, is
to shift the fleet south off the coast of Israel to
move strikes through an air corridor across Jordan.





ISKENDERUN, Turkey — Marine Gen. James Jones, the
commander of U.S. forces in Europe, said he is waiting
a few days to “see how diplomatic differences resolve
themselves” in Turkey before giving up on an option of
assaulting Iraq through northern Turkey in the event
of war.

With U.S. war planners eager to begin any invasion
before searing heat turns the Iraqi desert into a
blast furnace, time is running out. 

U.S. officials are waiting to see whether Turkish
leaders can regroup in time — and before U.S. patience
also runs out — to push through parliament approval
for positioning about 60,000 American troops, 255 jets
and 65 helicopters for an invasion of northern Iraq. 

One of the most pivotal decisions is when to give up
on the Turkish ground option and to shift forces south
to bolster units already assembling in Kuwait, Jones
said in a briefing Monday at his headquarters in
Stuttgart, Germany.

Defense officials, speaking Sunday on condition of
anonymity, said Gen. Tommy Franks, who would command a
U.S. war in Iraq, had not decided to give up on
Turkey. Franks told The Associated Press last week
that his war plans are flexible and take into account
such problems.

White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said Monday the
United States would prevail in a conflict with Iraq,
regardless of whether Turkey cooperates.

Turkey fears that if it does not allow U.S. troops it
could lose a $15 billion package in grants and loans
promised by Washington to compensate it for any losses
incurred in war. Fleischer said that “no final
judgments have been made” about the package.

Prime Minister Abdullah Gul refused to say Monday
whether his government would resubmit to parliament
the resolution to authorize the U.S. deployment ahead
of a possible war in Iraq. Gul will be in Doha, Qatar,
on Tuesday and Wednesday for a meeting of the
Organization of Islamic Conference, likely delaying
any vote at least until Thursday.

Meanwhile, a fleet of more than 40 cargo vessels
carrying tanks, fighting vehicles and other hardware
from the Texas-based 4th Infantry Division is stacking
up in the Mediterranean. It would take about a week
for those ships to instead transit the Suez Canal and
steam around the Arabian peninsula before they could
begin unloading in Kuwait’s already tightly squeezed
ports, say military officials.

Some 3,500 U.S. troops — many of them from the
Germany-based 1st Infantry Division and 21st Theater
Support Command — already are in Turkey to lay the
groundwork for a U.S. invasion force.

It’s unclear whether those support troops already here
would be reassigned to help out in Kuwait or simply
return to Germany. 

>From the air

Another key consideration is whether Turkish officials
will permit U.S. warplanes already based in Turkey to
be used in an all-out assault against Iraq. 

If the door is closed to heavy armored units rolling
through Turkey into northern Iraq, lighter airborne
units such as the Italy-based Southern European Task
Force could be used to seize airfields to open an air
bridge into the region. 

Reports have also pointed to the 101st Airborne
Division (Air Assault) using its massive fleet of
helicopters to repeat its 1991 Gulf War “left hook”
deep into Iraq with an even longer-range sweep into
the north.

In either case, airpower would play a critical role in
protecting and assisting those troops. More than 50
warplanes from Incirlik Air Base in southern Turkey
currently are patrolling Iraq’s northern no-fly zone
as part of Operation Northern Watch, said Air Force
spokesman Maj. Bob Thompson. 

“In order for us to do anything other than ONW, we’d
have to have a change of mission,” Thompson said. “For
that to happen it would take an order from our
president and coordination with our allies. And since
Turkey is our host, they would have a lot to say about
that.” 

While Turkey allowed use of its bases for the U.S air
war during the 1991 Persian Gulf conflict, Turkish
officials said no during more recent campaigns such as
the 1996 air blitz dubbed Operation Desert Strike as
well as Operation Desert Fox in late 1998. 

“If Turkish air bases are going to be used for the
conduct of actual combat operations, another vote in
parliament would be required to approve that,” said
Ilter Turan, professor of political science at Bilgi
University in Istanbul. 

“That is going to be a difficult question for the
Turkish authorities,” added retired Turkish aviator
Maj. Gen. Riza Kucukoglu. A graduate of the U.S. Air
Force War College, Kucukoglu said it’s one thing for
officials to allow the regular airstrikes that take
place under Operation Northern Watch, “but quite
another to allow a major air war.” 

“Maybe they would just turn a blind eye and pretend
not to see, but it is very possible that another vote
would be required,” Kucukoglu said. 

The same sensitivities could even complicate the use
of carrier-based warplanes passing over Turkey into
Iraq. 

Another option, said one senior Pentagon official, is
to shift the fleet south off the coast of Israel to
move strikes through an air corridor across Jordan.

That option is problematic given the Arab-Israeli
tensions, he said. 

>From the sea

The carrier Theodore Roosevelt has recently joined
fellow big deck Harry S. Truman in the eastern
Mediterranean, said 6th Fleet spokesman Cmdr. Bob
Ross. That puts about 100 Navy strike fighters in
range of Iraq. 

With question marks over Turkey, Ross said, “a key
issue for us is tanker support.” 

Officials had been hoping to base air-to-air refuelers
in eastern Turkey to gas up attack aircraft just
before crossing into Iraq. The tactic allows longer
loiter times and deeper ranges for strike missions. 

“We do have other options open,” said Ross, “and we
are exploring them now.” 

Meanwhile, carrier pilots are getting familiarized
with the skies over northern Iraq. Pilots from the
Truman have been integrated into Operation Northern
Watch during recent missions, Ross said. 

At the same time, operations in Northern Watch have
become more aggressive. 

Pilots have been expanding their target lists to
attack units that could be used against U.S. forces
invading Iraq.

Last week, ONW fighters attacked long-range artillery
launchers south of Mosul, in an unprecedented strike.
Until then, only anti-aircraft sites and command and
control centers had been targeted. 

On Saturday, in another first, ONW units blanketed
northern Iraq with 240,000 leaflets warning Iraqi
troops that units threatening coalition forces will be
“attacked and destroyed.” 

— Contributing to this report: Stars and Stripes
reporter David Josar and The Associated Press. 


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