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The New York Times
March 4, 2003

Top general plans to shock Iraq into surrender 
By ERIC SCHMITT and ELISABETH BUMILLER 

 
-[M]ilitary officials have said the plan calls for
unleashing 3,000 precision-guided bombs and missiles
in the first 48 hours of a short air campaign, to be
followed quickly by ground operations.
-"If your template is Desert Storm, you have to
imagine something much, much, much different," General
Myers said, issuing a warning to journalists who plan
to cover any war from Baghdad. "I would just be very,
very careful about how you do your business." In 1991,
allied aircraft conducted a 39-day bombing campaign
before ground troops moved into Kuwait. Commanders
this time plan a nearly simultaneous attack by land,
air and sea.
-"But we can't forget that war is inherently violent,"
he said. "People are going to die. As hard as we try
to limit civilian casualties, it will occur. We need
to condition people that that is war. People get the
idea this is going to be antiseptic. Well, it's not
going to be."
 
 
 


WASHINGTON, March 4 — The nation's top military
officer said today that the Pentagon's war plan for
Iraq entailed shocking the Iraqi leadership into
submission quickly with an attack "much, much, much
different" from the 43-day Persian Gulf war in 1991.
Gen. Richard B. Myers, the chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff, declined to give details. But other
military officials have said the plan calls for
unleashing 3,000 precision-guided bombs and missiles
in the first 48 hours of a short air campaign, to be
followed quickly by ground operations.

 
"If asked to go into conflict in Iraq, what you'd like
to do is have it be a short conflict," General Myers
told reporters at a breakfast meeting. "The best way
to do that would be to have such a shock on the system
that the Iraqi regime would have to assume early on
the end was inevitable."

General Myers gave a stark warning that the American
attack would result in Iraqi civilian casualties
despite the military's best efforts to prevent them.

He said disarming Iraq would define victory, not
capturing or killing President Saddam Hussein. He also
added that American forces would open a second front
from the north against Iraq, with or without Turkey's
help. "It'll be tougher without Turkey, but
nevertheless it'll happen," he said.

With 200,000 American military personnel in the
Persian Gulf and 60,000 more on their way, General
Myers declined to give a timetable for war other than
to say that the military was ready to attack on
President Bush's order.

But several diplomatic and military issues remained to
be resolved, including the possibility of a second
resolution on Iraq from the United Nations Security
Council. Officials said the United States was likely
to call for a vote next week.

Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said today that he
was "increasingly optimistic" about securing a
majority of nine or more votes on the Council. "We
don't know whether we have nine votes or 10 votes, or
more," he said.

The White House was also trying to keep pressure on
Turkey, saying that Turkey would not receive $15
billion in grants and loans now that its Parliament
had turned down a request for tens of thousands of
American troops to use the country as a base to attack
Iraq.

"The particular package that we've been talking to
them about was predicated on assistance and
cooperation in any plan for the use of force against
Iraq," said Ari Fleischer, the White House spokesman.
He said the White House was not willing to increase
the amount of the grants and loans to try again to
secure Turkish approval.

With the northern-front issue unsettled and one
leading alternative — deploying the 101st Airborne
Division from Kuwait — still one to two weeks from
being in place, some military officials said any
attack could be delayed until late March.

That could fit with emerging diplomatic and military
timetables. A vote late next week in the Security
Council would roughly coincide with the arrival in
Kuwait of many of the 101st Airborne's helicopters.
Other units in Kuwait could deploy north sooner, if
needed.

Administration officials said a vote on the Council
resolution effectively authorizing an American-led
attack on Iraq could come next week, after Hans Blix
and Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei, the chief United Nations
weapons inspectors, report to the Council on Friday on
Iraq's compliance with United Nations demands that
Iraq disarm.

Mr. Fleischer said today that the administration
planned to call for a vote "shortly after" the
inspectors' report. Administration officials say Mr.
Bush could order an attack soon after a United Nations
vote. But President Bush has repeatedly said that he
will disarm Iraq with a "coalition of the willing"
even without Security Council approval.

"The choice is Saddam Hussein's to make," Mr. Bush
said again today.

Western diplomats said Russia was considering whether
to offer its own resolution, perhaps in an effort to
break the deadlock between France and Germany and the
United States.

The intervention of President Vladimir V. Putin of
Russia could raise the diplomatic ante for President
Bush as he seeks Security Council endorsement for war
while also trying to avoid a divisive split among
allies and post-cold-war partners.

The Russian foreign minister, Igor S. Ivanov, said in
London that Russia probably would not abstain from a
Security Council vote, which diplomats interpreted as
a warning to Washington that it had to compromise and
give the inspectors more time.

A veto from any of the permanent members of the
Council would kill a second resolution. Along with the
United States, they are Britain, Russia, France and
China.

So far, France, China, Germany, Syria and Russia are
opposed. The administration counts on four Security
Council votes, its own and those of Britain, Spain and
Bulgaria. Six nations — Pakistan, Chile, Mexico,
Angola, Guinea and Cameroon — remain undecided.

Mr. Fleischer and Mr. Powell also left open the
possibility that the administration would not call for
a vote if it did not have 9 votes among the 15
members.

"Early next week, we'll make a judgment on what we
have heard, make a judgment on whether it's time to
put the resolution up to a vote," Mr. Powell told RTL
television of Germany, part of a series of interviews
with European networks.

The White House also announced today that Mr. Bush
would meet on Wednesday with Pio Laghi, a retired
cardinal sent by Pope John Paul II to Mr. Bush to make
"every effort" to avoid war.

As the diplomatic maneuvering intensified, Gen. Tommy
R. Franks, the commander of American forces in the
Persian Gulf, arrived here for briefings with Defense
Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and Mr. Bush over the
next two days.

Turkey is a main topic of discussions. There are now
30 Navy cargo ships in the eastern Mediterranean,
waiting for Turkish approval to unload tanks and other
heavy equipment for the Fourth Infantry Division. Some
ships have had to refuel in other foreign ports.

"There are several options on the table," General
Myers said. "Some are easier to execute. As in most
wars, logistics plays a very big role. It helps define
what the art of the possible is. The equation changes
dramatically whether or not you have support from
Turkey or you have to find support some other way."

The options include dispatching the 101st Airborne
Division and its fleet of helicopters north from
Kuwait to attack targets in northern Iraq. Another
alternative would be to fly or parachute troopers to
secure air bases in northern Iraq. Tanks and other
heavy equipment could be flown in later.

In addition to the heavy use of precision-guided bombs
and missiles, the war planning includes missions by
allied Special Operations forces in and around
Baghdad, attacking leadership, command and control and
storage sites for weapons of mass destruction.

"If your template is Desert Storm, you have to imagine
something much, much, much different," General Myers
said, issuing a warning to journalists who plan to
cover any war from Baghdad. "I would just be very,
very careful about how you do your business." In 1991,
allied aircraft conducted a 39-day bombing campaign
before ground troops moved into Kuwait. Commanders
this time plan a nearly simultaneous attack by land,
air and sea.

General Myers said that throughout the campaign, the
American military would go to "extraordinary lengths"
to avoid civilian casualties.

"But we can't forget that war is inherently violent,"
he said. "People are going to die. As hard as we try
to limit civilian casualties, it will occur. We need
to condition people that that is war. People get the
idea this is going to be antiseptic. Well, it's not
going to be."
 
 


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