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http://www.dailystar.com.lb/opinion/07_03_03_b.htm The Daily Star (Lebanon) March 7, 2003 The unspoken war motives of Bush supporters Muna Shuqair -The war against Afghanistan in October 2001 marked the real beginning of the project’s execution. This region extends in an arc from Pakistan in the southeast up to Afghanistan, the southern republics of the Caspian basin, west to Turkey then down to the countries of the eastern Mediterranean and the western shore of the Red Sea. Within this arc lies the Arabian Peninsula, the biggest oil reservoir in the world, as well as the Caspian oil reserves. Until now, the United States has not been able to reap the true benefits of its status as the world’s only superpower. Since the end of the Cold War, it was expected that the US would dominate the world, either by peaceful means or through regional and local conflicts in which it would play a part. Yet the fact is that many enemies today target America. Any group of countries are now able to undermine America’s interests; any small nuclear country can challenge the US, while a whole range of public or secret organizations can deliver painful blows to the American mainland itself. Since early in the 20th century, the Middle East has been a source of many problems for colonial powers. Syria, Iraq and Egypt were hotbeds of Arab nationalism with its rabid hostility toward the old colonial powers of Britain and France - as well as the United States. The Middle East also witnessed several Arab-Israeli wars, which the Arabs always lost. Yet despite its victories, Israel failed to achieve its most cherished goal of being accepted as part of the Middle East both on the official and popular levels. When the West realized early in the 20th century that some Arab countries in the Middle East were rich in the oil it needed to keep its industries running, the region assumed a special significance. Despite the undying loyalty of Arab oil-producing countries to Washington, regional developments (such as the chronic Arab-Israeli conflict, the 1991 Gulf War, and the circumstances surrounding the Palestine question) led to the rise of Islamic fundamentalist movements that were extremely hostile to the US and its interests. This phenomenon was first seen in Egypt, but then widened to involve Gulf countries later. America came to the conclusion that Gulf oil could be threatened by the political and military ambitions of regional leaders such as Saddam Hussein. Despite the fact that the Gulf War succeeded in achieving its primary purpose (of liberating Kuwait), it failed to achieve its longer-term objective of guaranteeing the permanent free flow of oil to the West by getting rid of all possible sources of threat. That is why America now feels that it needs a geopolitical settlement through which it can reshape the region to better serve its interests. The Middle East contains 65 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves; it is a region in which ideologies hostile to the United States are born and thrive. Paradoxically, it is in those countries most friendly to America that such ideologies are the strongest and most extreme. According to Washington, some Arab states are ruled by political systems that support and nurture terrorism; others are intent on acquiring nuclear arms and other types of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Therefore, the American logic goes, the region must be changed in such a way as to eliminate all sources of threat. Israel’s security can be assured through the creation of a new geopolitical reality dominated by the Jewish state. Two events laid the groundwork for this grand American project: the Gulf War and the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks. The war against Afghanistan in October 2001 marked the real beginning of the project’s execution. This region extends in an arc from Pakistan in the southeast up to Afghanistan, the southern republics of the Caspian basin, west to Turkey then down to the countries of the eastern Mediterranean and the western shore of the Red Sea. Within this arc lies the Arabian Peninsula, the biggest oil reservoir in the world, as well as the Caspian oil reserves. Within its borders lie the major centers of Sunni Islam (Saudi Arabia), Shiite Islam (Iran), and non-Arab Islam (Pakistan). It is also the heartland of anti-colonial nationalism (Syria, Iraq) and Nasserism (Egypt). In its countries were established Islamic fundamentalist movements that are rabidly anti-American (Afghanistan, Pakistan), as well as the most important Islamic state (Iran). This arc also encloses a small country that waged a long war of liberation against a vicious occupying force (Lebanon), and a small population engaged in a daily struggle for survival against Israeli occupation (the Palestinians). That is why this region has always been a threat to American interests, as well as to other alien forces. And that is why it must be “reshaped,” starting with Saddam Hussein’s regime not because Saddam poses an imminent threat to the US, but in order to seize control of Iraq’s vast oil reserves and to occupy the center of the arc, thus making it easier to target Iran (an Islamic state with nuclear ambitions), Syria (a supporter of revolutionary Islamist and Palestinian movements, as well as a connoisseur of WMDs), and Saudi Arabia (to eliminate the political, educational, and cultural roots of terrorism). By controlling this region, the US can render safe the geopolitical environment of Arab and Asian oil. “Safe” in this context means direct American control of production, pricing, and investments. The region would also be freed of nuclear weapons and other WMDs; only Israel would be allowed to retain a nuclear arsenal to enable it to maintain its superiority over all its Arab neighbors combined. Israel would assume the role of monitoring the region for any terrorist cells that could be used by hostile regimes, and would also be responsible for bringing to power friendly regimes that would serve America’s strategic objectives. Colonial powers have usually employed such policies backed by military power in the past. Britain, for example, created new states, appointed rulers, and built a sprawling empire, all to ensure its political and economic interests. France for its part waged many wars to defend its colonial interests. Yet despite the force used by colonial powers in their heyday, the essential fact remained that colonized peoples always resisted and rebelled in order to secure their independence. By trying to control this region, America would be helping to create the forces that would resist its domination. New ideologies would rise up, drawing support from the wider Arab and Muslim worlds. Long-term plans have never shown that they can withstand political and economic changes anywhere in the world. No region in the world has submitted quietly to foreign domination. If the Americans believe that by targeting Iraq they would be taking the first step toward reshaping the entire region according to their own agenda, they should know that the coming war would mark the birth of new forces whose only objective is to defeat them. Such forces would not be effective in the short term, but they would undoubtedly become so in due course. Muna Shuqair is an Amman-based Jordanian political analyst. She wrote this commentary for The Daily Star __________________________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! 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