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Defense News
January 20, 2010


Bildt: Consensus Over Post-Soviet Borders Is Gone
By JULIAN HALE 


BRUSSELS: Sweden's Foreign Minister Carl Bildt said January 20 that the basic 
consensus on post-Soviet borders has disappeared since the brief Georgia-Russia 
war in August 2008.

Speaking at the launch of a book by German Marshall Fund analyst Ron Asmus 
entitled "A Little War That Shook the World: Georgia, Russia and the Future of 
the West," Bildt said that "either one border after another will now be 
questioned or we say that this was a mistake and we need to seek solutions."

He also said that the West should have challenged the presence of Soviet 
peacekeeping forces [in frozen conflict areas] in the former Soviet empire. His 
view was that the West should have been firmer in response to Russian 
provocations and reacted to moves such as military aircraft flying over Georgia 
as a "warning" to the country ahead of a visit by the then-U.S. Secretary of 
State Condoleezza Rice.

"More attention needs to be given to frozen conflicts," he added. "Now it's a 
stalemate in the region and that is likely to be the case for quite some time 
to come," he said.

Bildt indicated that there are currently two monologues - Russia's and the 
West's - but that that was beginning to change.

One reason the conflict took place was that the West was fractured and had no 
coherent policy, Bildt argued.

Ron Asmus, the Executive Director at the Transatlantic Center and Strategic 
Planning at the German Marshall Fund, said Russia's aim from the conflict was 
"regime change" in Georgia and he was not sure if it had abandoned that aim. 
"The region is less stable than before. The future status of the region is up 
in the air," he said, adding that "the risk of future conflict is still there 
and is very real."
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