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http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10034/1032912-374.stm


Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
February 3, 2010


The Pentagon runs amok
Obama is letting the generals and contractors roll over him
By Dan Simpson


It is not possible to believe that it is coincidence that just as the Pentagon 
is being called upon to justify its immunity from the across-the-board budget 
freeze that President Barack Obama is declaring for the federal government, at 
least three provocative U.S. arms sales have been announced - to Taiwan, Poland 
and four Persian Gulf states.

The announcements were clearly scheduled to provoke, respectively, China, 
Russia and Iran. Each will now bark loudly, and perhaps take retaliatory 
action. Their responses will, in turn, serve as justification by the Pentagon 
for the 7.1 percent increase in proposed defense spending, even as painful cuts 
are being administered in other fields.

The other beneficiaries of this move will be the defense contractors - the 
happy band of manufacturers and trainers and their lobbyists - into the ranks 
of which many senior military officers and Pentagon officials retire once their 
active duty days are done.

The timing is extraordinary, if one had any inclination to consider it to be 
coincidental. The other "coincidental" development was the failure - again - of 
the missile-defense system in a $150 million trial that took place Sunday. That 
system, a dog that has been around for years, cleverly conceived and presented 
as an umbrella over the United States and some of its allies against Iranian or 
North Korean missiles, has two basic problems. First, it is expensive. Second, 
it doesn't work, although those two flaws do not necessarily deter Pentagon 
planners or defense contractors.

The three newly announced arms sales were surer bets, in the sense that each is 
sure to alarm or enrage some serious country.

The biggest sale, announced Friday, and the most serious in terms of impact, is 
a plan to sell $6.4 billion in arms to Taiwan. China considers Taiwan to be 
part of China. The island will receive from the United States 60 Black Hawk 
helicopters, 114 missile-defense rockets, 12 anti-ship missiles and two 
mine-hunting vessels, as well as communications and surveillance equipment.

The timing of the U.S. announcement - unless the furious Chinese reaction is 
seen as helping the Pentagon's budgetary case with the Congress - would seem to 
be particularly unpropitious.

The United States is asking China to sign on to sanctions against Iran. It 
continues to rely on China to keep North Korea in line. Mr. Obama's new 
initiative to double U.S. exports is dependent on China's adjusting its 
currency, a step it is reluctant to take in any case. And in general, China's 
relations with Taiwan have been improving steadily, tending more toward 
enhanced commercial ties, as opposed to military competition. The new U.S. arms 
sales would seem to cut counter to this evolution of relations and must have 
been a difficult decision for the Taipei government to take, one certainly 
encouraged by U.S. defense equipment exporters.

The Chinese reaction will probably not be pleasant for the United States. It 
immediately is likely to exclude U.S. companies involved in the sale, such as 
Boeing, from operating in China. It also will cut for the time being 
military-to-military contacts with the United States, and perhaps others. The 
most serious action China can take - one which it was already moving toward - 
is a reduction in its purchases of U.S. debt. That would have a grave initial 
and then secondary impact on the U.S. economy.

It would mean, first, that the U.S. government would have to pay higher 
interest rates to borrow the cash necessary to cover its enormous, growing 
budget deficits. Second -- and probably most serious - it would mean that the 
U.S. government would have to compete in U.S. financial markets to a greater 
degree for the capital needed to restart the engines of American industry.

That is absolutely the last thing that the Obama administration needs at this 
point. It makes one wonder how much pressure was put on Mr. Obama by defense 
industry lobbyists to obtain authorization for the arms sales to Taiwan - or 
worse, whether he understood what he was doing.

The second arms deal was made public when Poland announced that the United 
States would sell it surface-to-air missiles for deployment 35 miles from the 
Russian border by April. Russia has consistently opposed such U.S. action, 
considering it provocative and inconsistent with Mr. Obama's declaration of his 
intention to reset relations with Russia. Where and how Russia's reaction will 
come is not yet known, although cooperation on sanctions against Iran and/or 
the signing of a new arms reduction treaty may now be out the window.

The third major arms deal announced in recent days was that the United States 
will sell Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and perhaps other 
Arab Persian Gulf states new anti-missile defense systems, targeted against 
nearby Iran.

Apart from the financial aspects of the deal for companies like Raytheon, the 
theory is that the new weapons will make the Gulf states more comfortable 
hosting the U.S. military installations already on their territory.

The theory also is that Israel will be more comfortable with U.S. 
missile-defense systems in the Gulf to protect it from Iranian retaliation if 
Israel were to bomb Iranian nuclear installations. This theory is severely 
flawed in that Israel could equally well conclude that it now can attack Iran 
with less risk of Iranian retaliation against America's allies in the Gulf. The 
easy way to prevent Israel from starting a major Middle East war by attacking 
Iran is simply to tell it that the United States will not come to its rescue if 
it does so and then finds that it can't handle the Iranian counterattack.

The budget line for defense stands at $708 billion, 53 percent of discretionary 
spending, eight times more than the next largest item, health and human 
services. Does that reflect America's priorities? Is that who we are?
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