Last night before I went to bed (10:00 CST), the Iowa Electronic Markets site was showing Kerry shares selling for $.506 and Bush shares selling for $.49 in the vote-share market. Now (5:00am CST) Kerry shares are selling for $.457 and Bush shares are selling for $.547. There was an equally dramatic change in the winner-take-all market. I a stunned at how far off the market was and that the shift didn't take place until after 10pm.
-Jeff >>> Robin Hanson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> 11/02/04 09:02PM >>> At 5:33 EST I wrote: >Tradesports, IEM, Betfair give Kerry a 71 to 74% chance to win. Tradesports now gives Bush a 62% of winning. Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444 703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
