Re: Interest rates and housing

[AdmrlLocke]

Dear Fred,

Is the real estate cycle approximately 18 years from peak to trough, or from peak to peak?

When do you predict the next downturn will begin?

Thanks,

David

In a message dated 8/19/05 9:36:47 AM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:

> Are you saying that there's a
> real cycle of real estate
> that takes 18 years from (from peak to peak or from
> peak to trough?)?
> David

That is the usual cycle, although there are
exceptions.

>   That
> seems different from your initial contention that
> the current bubble has been
> caused by monetary growth.

My contention is that there are two causes, monetary
and real (including fiscal), and the causes are
complementary.  The timing of the cycle is inherent in
the nature of the real estate market for rentals and
construction.

>  then do you
> predict a collapse of real estate prices based on
> monetary or real factors, or both?

Both

Fred