The numbers are probably right. I've not checked them, but (a) the ease in which someone could and (b) the reasonability of the numbers (I'll get to that) would rule out most of my skepticism.
Of course, the numbers are wholly meaningless.
Pro sports teams don't hire head coaches to get more wins or to the playoffs. That may be the long-term goal, but the truth is that coaches are hired for one reason -- to fill the void left when the other coach left. It seems glib to say it that way, but it's the truth. Why? The order is important. You'll rarely if ever see a team hire a coach (or, take steps to hire a coach) without getting rid of the old one first. The corollary to this is that the incumbant has a good deal of staying power, _even if he shouldn't_.
Take the NY Giants right now. Their coach, Jim Fassell made some awful decisions throughout the year and the playoffs. People have been calling for his head all season. But he took the team to the playoffs when many writers (myself included, sadly) had them going 8-8 or worse. Even though a Dennis Green or Steve Mariucci is available and would probably be an improvement, Fassell has the incumbancy and the power associated with it.
The types of vacancies are, in order of likelihood:
1) A bad (sub-.500 team) who fired their coach
2) A good (playoff-level, often Super Bowl bound) team whose coach retired or was drawn away to another team
3) A good (playoff-level, never Super Bowl bound) team who failed to meet expectations.
Edwards (Jets) was a type-2 hire. Al Groh, the old coach, left after the 2001 season to go back to UVa. The Jets were a decently good team already. Dungy (Colts) was a type-3 hire. Jim Mora's Colts were _awful_ at times last year -- his "Playoffs?!" rant is still made light of -- and Dungy himself was a recent type-3 firee (coming from Tampa Bay). It's unfair to compare these guys to the likes of John Fox (Carolina) and Mike Tice (Vikings), because those guys were in type-1 situations. Instead, take a look at John Gruden, who took Dungy's old job (type-3), and Bill Callahan, who filled the Raiders' void when Gruden left (type-2). It's a much different picture.
The data cited by Dr. Madden is wholly worthless. Dungy comes to a team that averaged 9.66 wins over the last three years. He comes from a team that averaged 10 wins over the last three. He finished with 9 this year with a team with a Jeff Sagarin-rated 25th hardest (8th easiest) strength of schedule. Edwards's Jets (5th hardest SOS this year) went 9-7 this year and 10-6 last. The three years before Edwards, the Jets averaged 9.66. Much more telling, no?
Some other stats of black coaches;
Dennis Green (Vikings, 1992-2001) had an incredible 86-58 record with Minny. But he inheritied a team that had been .500 or better in five of the six years prior, including three playoff berths. Also: Over his 10 years, Green made the playoffs eight times -- but never got the second win there.
Art Shell (Raiders, 1989-1994) took over for Mike Shanahan four games into the 1989 season. That team was pretty bad before Shell (they salvaged an 8-8 record that year after starting 1-3) and was quite good under Shell, going 54-38, including a 12-4 1990 season in Shell's first fully ear. And you can't really fault Shell for the next few years of mediocrity -- the Raiders lost Bo Jackson to that hip injury in the playoffs after that season. Yet they still made the playoffs in 1991.
Ray Rhodes (Eagles, 1995-1998) also took over a mediocre (type-1) spot. He had two good years early one, making the playoffs both times. But he fizzled in years three and four, winning a total of 9.5 games (there's a tie in there). Four years before him (Rich Kotite): 36 wins, plus one playoff win. His four years: 29.5 wins, plus one playoff win. The four years since (Andy Reid): 39 wins, including at least 4 playoff wins, going into tomorrow.
Rhodes, however, would bounce back. He found a job with the Packers the next year (1999). The team went 8-8 that season -- their worst record since 1992 and since then as well.
The only other black coach since Shell was Terry Robiskie, who was an interim coach that only had the reigns for three games. If the study didn't include him, they did so correctly.
Last thing:
The Bengals (2-14 this year) just hired Marvin Lewis, the most obvious choice for a coach out there, black or white, experienced or otherwise. And no, I'm not related to him. (Maybe Denny Green is the most obvious choice, but the rest would hold true). The Bengals aren't going to get to 8 wins, let alone the playoffs, next season. That will hurt the study's numbers even though there's incredible opportunity to help their cause. Even worse, some people (http://www.sportserver.com/pressbox/story/715810p-5257735c.html) see it as a slap in the face, saying that black coaches should get "top" jobs, not that of the lowly Bengals.
Dan Lewis
www.dlewis.net
At 10:30 AM 1/18/2003 -0500, you wrote:
All- Just got my Atlantic Mo. in the mail yesterday. Under the Primary Sources section is the following report by Mr. Johnnie Cochran and U. Penn labor economist Janice Madden:"Dr. Madden determined that: the black coaches [over the last fifteen years] averaged 1.1 more wins per season than the white coaches; the black coaches led their teams to the playoffs 67% of the time verses 39% of the time for white coaches....." -- "Black coaches in the NFL: Superior Performance, Inferior Opportunities." (www.findjustice.com/ms/nfl/indextext.html) You can't make me believe that with the amount of money at stake in the NFL that team owners are systematically indulging racial preferences. No way. Racial preference indulgence takes place at the level of team janitor, not head coach. To suggest otherwise flies in the face of modern economic theory. Help me out. Can this data be accurate? Suspect I'm sure considering who's behind it. But on the other hand, it seems that it would be difficult to fudge. Supposing it is true, is there any other explanation for this phenomenon? -Bill P.S. - Both black coaches in the NFL (Tony Dungee and Herman Edwards) led their teams to playoffs this year..... William M. Butterfield Analyst MultiState Assoc. Inc. Phone: (703) 684-1110 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
