> Should markets be priced assuming that nothing will go wrong ("randomWhen you say, "should markets be priced", I guess that you really mean, "should buyers prefer or insist on buying at prices", and "should sellers prefer or insist on selling at prices". > IF that be so, shouldnt markets factor this in their pricing ? The answer here is obviously "yes" -- we should factor into our actions all that we can reasonably anticipate. That we don't always do that is clear, and this failing is due to the fact that we cannot predict the future (especially when it involves the actions of other people) and that we do not always invest in research that would have resulted in better outcomes (some call this "rational ignorance"). You seem to implicitly claim that people do not factor such things into their actions, or that they do so poorly. What makes you think that? What is the standard against which you are assessing market actions? -gil
smime.p7s
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