This Sunday, the BAFTA awards will take place. The winners will be announced via press release before the broadcast but it will be airing in America on the BBC at 8pm Eastern and 5pm Pacific. We will already know the winners by then but it will be fun to watch! InContention’s Guy Lodge will be live-blogging them. There were a couple of things last year that were shockingly similar to the Oscars - which begs the question again, have the BAFTA become THE awards body to look to in predicting the Academy? Their choices always seemed a little wacky but looking over last year’s winners - Marion Cotillard, Tilda Swinton and then the Bourne Ultimatum in the sound categories. On the other hand, Atonement beat No Country for Old Men for Best Picture and the Diving Bell beat No Country for screenplay. So how accurate are they? And why is it they are SO accurate on some categories but not so much on the “big” categories?
I think you could say, when all else fails rely on their love for God and country. I am imagining John Cleese explaining the BAFTAs in his foppish voice. The British seem to side with themselves when given the opportunity but it certainly isn’t always the case. That’s where I personally run into problems when predicting the Oscars off the BAFTA; I always assume that the odd winners happened because they were British. And that the Academy wouldn’t follow suit. But the similarities lately have been too strong to ignore. Americans are forever playing catch-up to the smarter, classier British! With that, let’s take a pointless look at how we think it might go. BEST FILM THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON Kathleen Kennedy / Frank Marshall / Ceán Chaffin FROST/NIXON Tim Bevan / Eric Fellner / Brian Grazer / Ron Howard MILK Dan Jinks / Bruce Cohen THE READER Anthony Minghella / Sydney Pollack / Donna Gigliotti / Redmond Morris SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE Christian Colson I really think Slumdog is going to clean sweep it, winning the WGA, the BAFTA, the Eddie and eventually the Oscar so I’m not going to predict it won’t win here. What I do think, though, is that if anywhere is going to feel the brunt of the so-called controversy (which is wholly unfair and beside the point of these awards and of making films in the first place) it will be here at the BAFTAs, where the press is wildly out of control and where scandal tends to reign. Sorry, Brits, but that’s just the way it is. We have McDonalds, you have the scandals. If it isn’t Slumdog, though, I’m going to guess it’s either The Reader or Benjamin Button. Prediction: Slumdog DIRECTOR CHANGELING Clint Eastwood THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON David Fincher FROST/NIXON Ron Howard THE READER Stephen Daldry SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE Danny Boyle The last time a film won both Picture and Director at the BAFTAs was when Brokeback Mountain and Ang Lee won. Brokeback, like Slumdog, was winning everything (not the SAG ensemble nor the Eddie, however). So it’s possible that Danny Boyle and Slumdog will win here. It’s the safest prediction. But in light of their recent pattern of splitting those awards, who might benefit? Again, I think it’s down to Daldry or Fincher, and in light of the London Critics honoring Fincher I would give him the edge. But it’s tough to bet against Danny Boyle — especially since Fincher is American! Prediction: Danny Boyle Alternate: David Fincher ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY BURN AFTER READING Joel Coen / Ethan Coen CHANGELING J. Michael Straczynski I’VE LOVED YOU SO LONG Philippe Claudel IN BRUGES Martin McDonagh MILK Dustin Lance Black Well, this is a tough one. My first instinct is that McDonagh will take this but what of Dustin Lance Black and Milk? And then there are the Coens. Smart money would pick the Coens as I sense that Burn After Reading is going to catch on in the years to come. Prediction: In Bruges Alternate: Milk ADAPTED SCREENPLAY THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON Eric Roth FROST/NIXON Peter Morgan THE READER David Hare REVOLUTIONARY ROAD Justin Haythe SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE Simon Beaufoy Oh I think Mr. Beaufoy, for a variety of reasons, wins this in a walk. Yes, there is Peter Morgan to contend with here. They don’t have the same stigma on the film as we do because it was already a Broadway show here first. I also think Brits would appreciate the Nixon saga as told through the eyes of a Brit than many of us do here. And then there is David Hare, famous playwrite who adapted that beloved book. This is tough to call but when in doubt, Slumdog it out. Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire Alt: Frost/Nixon FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE THE BAADER MEINHOF COMPLEX Bernard Eichinger / Uli Edel GOMORRAH Domenico Procacci / Matteo Garrone I’VE LOVED YOU SO LONG Yves Marmion / Philippe Claudel PERSEPOLIS Marc-Antoine Robert / Xavier Rigault / Marjane Satrapi / Vincent Parannaud WALTZ WITH BASHIR Serge Lalou / Gerhard Meixner / Yael Nahl Ieli / Ari Folman Prediction: Waltz with Bashir Alt: Persepolis ANIMATED FILM PERSEPOLIS Marjane Satrapi / Vincent Parannaud WALL•E Andrew Stanton WALTZ WITH BASHIR Ari Folman Oh, tough call here because Waltz is up against Wall-E. Both Persepolis and Waltz are in the foreign category as well and if they are beloved enough both will win in these two categories. Still…Only a fool bets against Wall-E (note how Kung-Fu Panda is not nomintated here). Prediction: Wall-E! Alternate: Waltz with Bashir LEADING ACTOR FRANK LANGELLA Frost/Nixon DEV PATEL Slumdog Millionaire SEAN PENN Milk BRAD PITT The Curious Case of Benjamin Button MICKEY ROURKE The Wrestler Wow, this is tough. I actually saw Milk at a BAFTA screening and they loved this movie. Penn has never won a BAFTA, though he’s been nominated twice before. This is a really tough call between Mickey Rourke (who just won the London Film Critics) and Penn (who has basically won everything else except the Globe). It’s a really tough call. The last time the BAFTA missed Best Actor with Oscar was, weirdly enough, Sean Penn v. Bill Murray, wher Murray won. The year before that, Daniel Day-Lewis won the BAFTA for Gangs of New York but Adrien Brody won the Oscar (most deservedly). I figure whomever wins this probably wins the Oscar and since I’m currently predicting Rourke for the Oscar I suppose I’ll white-knuckle it through. My instincts are telling me it’s Penn, though, just for the record. Prediction: Mickey Rourke Alt: Sean Penn LEADING ACTRESS ANGELINA JOLIE Changeling KRISTIN SCOTT THOMAS I’ve Loved You So Long MERYL STREEP Doubt KATE WINSLET The Reader KATE WINSLET Revolutionary Road Okay, this is tricky because Kate is in twice. The grand dame Meryl Streep is up for this award and, if you can believe it, the last time she won a BAFTA was for The French Lieutenant’s Woman and that was before they switched the date to make these before the Oscars. Still, it’s hard to bet again the very British Ms. Winslet for either part. There is also the old theory that Winslet cancels herself out and Streep wins. Prediction: Kate Winslet for The Reader Alt: Meryl Streep, Doubt SUPPORTING ACTOR ROBERT DOWNEY JR. Tropic Thunder BRENDAN GLEESON In Bruges PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN Doubt HEATH LEDGER The Dark Knight BRAD PITT Burn After Reading If there is a crack in the Heath Ledger vessel it will be felt here, I suspect. So if anyone but Heath wins, his Oscar will not be the slam dunk everyone is assuming it will be. Still, I’m not going to be the one who doesn’t predict him since his was among my favorite performances of the year and he fucking deserves it. Prediction: Heath Ledger Alt: Robert Downey, Jr. SUPPORTING ACTRESS AMY ADAMS Doubt PENÉLOPE CRUZ Vicky Cristina Barcelona FREIDA PINTO Slumdog Millionaire TILDA SWINTON Burn After Reading MARISA TOMEI The Wrestler This is a tough one again. I think it’s down to Penelope Cruz versus Marisa Tomei and there’s a chance that Tomei and Rourke could win. There’s always Freida Pinto to contend with. Liking her character could prove successful. Prediction: Penelope Cruz Alt: Marisa Tomei Wild card: Freida Pinto MUSIC THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON Alexandre Desplat THE DARK KNIGHT Hans Zimmer / James Newton Howard MAMMA MIA! Benny Andersson / Björn Ulvaeus SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE A. R. Rahman WALL•E Thomas Newman The Dark Knight should win this but I’m going to bet it’s either Button or Slumdog, or Wall-E. Prediction: Slumdog Alt: Button CINEMATOGRAPHY CHANGELING Tom Stern THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON Claudio Miranda THE DARK KNIGHT Wally Pfister THE READER Chris Menges / Roger Deakins SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE Anthony Dod Mantle These are, I think, five for five for the Oscars too. I don’t know how this will go - it’s the same conflicts as predicting it for the Oscar. Since Button’s strength is how pretty it is, though, it has to be that film. Prediction: Button Alt: Slumdog EDITING CHANGELING Joel Cox / Gary D. Roach THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON Kirk Baxter / Angus Wall THE DARK KNIGHT Lee Smith FROST/NIXON Mike Hill / Dan Hanley IN BRUGES Jon Gregory SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE Chris Dickens Again, who knows. In Bruges could win here but I think The Dark Knight will have to win something and this could be the one prize it does win. I think Slumdog will win the editing Oscar but BAFTA likes to spread the wealth more. Prediction: The Dark Knight Alt: Slumdog PRODUCTION DESIGN CHANGELING James J. Murakami / Gary Fettis THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON Donald Graham Burt / Victor J. Zolfo THE DARK KNIGHT Nathan Crowley / Peter Lando REVOLUTIONARY ROAD Kristi Zea / Debra Schutt SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE Mark Digby / Michelle Day Button deserves this but they clearly liked Changeling enough to give it all of these nominations and it’s so gorgeous, isn’t it? Prediction: Changeling Alt: Button COSTUME DESIGN CHANGELING Deborah Hopper THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON Jacqueline West THE DARK KNIGHT Lindy Hemming THE DUCHESS Michael O’Connor REVOLUTIONARY ROAD Albert Wolsky Prediction: The Duchess Alt: Button SOUND CHANGELING Walt Martin / Alan Robert Murray / John Reitz / Gregg Rudloff THE DARK KNIGHT Lora Hirschberg / Richard King / Ed Novick / Gary Rizzo QUANTUM OF SOLACE Eddy Joseph / Chris Munro / Mike Prestwood Smith / Mark Taylor SLUMDOG MILLIONARE Glenn Freemantle / Resul Pookutty / Richard Pryke / Tom Sayers / Ian Tapp WALL•E Ben Burtt / Tom Myers / Michael Semanick / Matthew Wood Prediction: The Dark Knight Alt: Wall-E SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON Eric Barba / Craig Barron / Nathan McGuinness / Edson Williams THE DARK KNIGHT Chris Corbould / Nick Davis / Paul Franklin / Tim Webber INDIANA JONES AND THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL Pablo Helman IRON MAN Shane Patrick Mahan / John Nelson / Ben Snow QUANTUM OF SOLACE Chris Corbould / Kevin Tod Haug Prediction: Iron Man Alt. Button MAKE UP & HAIR THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON Jean Black / Colleen Callaghan THE DARK KNIGHT Peter Robb-King THE DUCHESS Daniel Phillips / Jan Archibald FROST/NIXON Edouard Henriques / Kim Santantonio MILK Steven E. Anderson / Michael White Prediction: Button Alt. The Duchess (SKIPPING THE SHORTS) OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM HUNGER Laura Hastings-Smith / Robin Gutch / Steve McQueen / Enda Walsh IN BRUGES Graham Broadbent / Pete Czernin / Martin McDonagh MAMMA MIA! Judy Craymer / Gary Goetzman / Phyllida Lloyd / Catherine Johnson MAN ON WIRE Simon Chinn / James Marsh SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE Christian Colson / Danny Boyle / Simon Beaufoy Prediction: Hunger Alt: Slumdog THE CARL FOREMAN AWARD for Special Achievement by a British Director, Writer or Producer for their First Feature Film SIMON CHINN Producer – Man On Wire JUDY CRAYMER Producer – Mamma Mia! GARTH JENNINGS Writer – Son of Rambow STEVE McQUEEN Director/Writer – Hunger SOLON PAPADOPOULOS / ROY BOULTER Producers – Of Time And The City Prediction: Steve McQueen Alt. Simon Chinn THE ORANGE RISING STAR AWARD (voted for by the public) MICHAEL CERA NOEL CLARKE MICHAEL FASSBENDER REBECCA HALL TOBY KEBBELL Prediction: Rebecca Hall