An election is a poll. A giant poll, but a poll nonetheless. About
27% of registered voters took this poll. Statistically speaking,
this is an extremely large and therefrore reliabile test group to
gauge the intent of the whole group (all of those presidential polls
you see on tv are of a fraction of 1% of registered voters and they
are considered statistically reliable, so 27% is enormous).
Let's look at some historical "landslides." Clinton/Dole is
considered by every historian a landslide. Clinton beat Dole by 9
percentage points, and it was only a 3 man race.
Reagan beat Mondale by 18 percentage points, and that too was a 3
man race. This is a monster landslide.
Now let's look at the AP incumbents. Bruno was 11 points above
Keady, Loffredo and Johnson were 13 points above Keady. These
landslides are better than Clinton's, so I dub them "Clintonesque."
Sanders was 19 percentage points above Keady. This landslide
was "Reaganesque."
Now consider that we aren't talking about a 3 man race, but a 19 man
split!!!! That makes the landslide even more impressive!!!
Also remember - Keady won a seat. Compare the incumbents to the
candidates that lost and thier margins are of course larger.
Anyone who argues that you need 51% percent to obtain a "landslide"
is forgetting to factor in the number of candidates. A 51-49
victory in a 2 man race is only 2 percentage points, and certainly
not a landlide.
The fact that Kevin Sanders got 49% of all participating voters to
pull the lever for him in a 19 man field is a giant landslide.
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, "Skip Bernstein" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
wrote:
> "Where did you get this "no confidence" vote information from? The
> incumbents won a landslide. That's a vote of confidence."
>
> Really, a plurality based on 5 – 9% of registered voters equals a
> landslide? Do explain.
>
>
> --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, "bluebishop82"
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> wrote:
> > Where did you get this "no confidence" vote information from?
The
> > incumbents won a landslide. That's a vote of confidence.
> >
> >
> > --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, "mognj" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > > the first job for the new council....they are
awful......particularly
> > > Aaron....They have been given a no confidence vote by the
whole
> > > town....Change is needed......
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