Sharon Boone
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
-- \"dfsavgny\" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
> Just a few observations from Asbury Radio's table -
> And, they expressed suspicion about the city's dedication to restore
the
> landmarks, because of the current appearance and the time that's gone
by since the
> City started its comeback.
> One couple asked how the condos could be selling as well as reported,
> preconstruction, when the surrounding area still looked so bad.
I was beginning to think we were only in the universe, but it appears
to have made contact with other intelligent life forms. Thank goodness
we are not alone after all.
I see this tempering of enthusiam as both good and bad. The good is
that it brings some rationality (and perhaps responsibility) to the
table, much like rationality coming back to the stock market. While
healthy for the long run, some must bear the pain. Like most real
estate professionals and layman alike, I am waiting for the bubble to
burst. Just last week I had Donald Trump ask me what I thought was
going to happen in the marketplace. I looked at him and said, "you're
asking me, you're Donald Trump?" That is exactly how perplexing it has
been. Just like in golf and a swing at the plate, poor follow through
can ruin your game in real estate. I have my fingers crossed that this
will not happen in AP, but I have seen it before. When a market
downturn hits, those areas being gentrified that are not substantially
completed, gets hit worse and take longer to recover. While no one is
predicting as serious a downturn as occured in the late-1980's to early-
1990's (does anyone really know for sure), market conditions are
eroding as we speak. Let's be frank about it. In addition to, and in
spite of its special nature, what has brought most to AP is its
availibility of relative bargains. Those bargains are already
dissappearing. If and when the market goes down, there will be relative
bargains elsewhere for many. In places with less crime, better schools
and more substantial and better maintained infrastructure. While those
areas may not have the same funky allure of AP, people will weigh the
pros with the cons in making a decision. If the price of the new condos
cannot be obtained (and let me tell you that there are some pretty
heady projetions), they will not get built, at least until market
conditions improve. If caught (as I am fond of comparing the current
state of AP's redevelopment process) with its "pants down," there will
be the perception that they may never get built and that it was another
false start. Now, if substantial work had already progressed on the
pavillions and historic structures, and other amenities of the general
area, the downturn would be weathered differently. Forgive me for being
blue this week, it was just a full moon in the past few days.
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