--to suck money out. That's why I have to tell myself be happy with a
.20 pop. No jersey numbers for HOV. Fact is, developers home prices
are still pegged at a level they were over 1 year ago HIGH.
The number of homeowners.investors in HOVs and Beezers developments
and others - many can't afford what they bought into. Means when they
try to sell, they compete with the rest of the development and
additonal phases from the same developer (my observations).
Another article came out this afternoon:
Investors eyes have been so glued on Bernankeâs move Tuesday that it
would be easy to overlook that an index that tracks developers'
expectations of future home sales--also released Tuesday--fell this
month to its record low, signaling that housing weakness could persist
into early 2008.
On Tuesday, the NAHB announced that its housing market index, which
tracks buildersâ perceptions of current market conditions and
expectations for home sales over the next six months, fell two points
in September to 20 from 22.
The drop, which matched the consensus forecast of economists surveyed
by Thomson/IFR, was the seventh straight monthly decline and the same
reading as in January 1991, the last housing slump. During that slump
former-President George H.W. Bush called for a Federal Reserve rate
cut in front of Congress.
Executives of the nation's largest homebuilders, speaking at an
industry conference in New York, gave a similarly gloomy picture,
despite Tuesday's bounce.
"We're operating as though these conditions will continue for a long
time," said Ara Hovnanian, chief executive of the Red Bank, N.J.-based
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. On Tuesday both Hovnanian and Beazer Homes
said they will lower prices to weather the downturn.
In the trade group's report, declining builder confidence was seen in
all parts of the country. The index was lowest in the Midwest and
highest in the Northeast.
However, the homebuilders' group projected the market will turn around
in less than a year. David Seiders, the trade group's chief economist,
said home sales should start trending up again by the middle of next
year, and housing construction should recover by the third quarter of
2008.
This view is optimistic compared to the feelings at Moody's, which
earlier this month published a report arguing that not only will the
housing market not turn around for the next two years, but it will be
weak when it finally does
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