steve herman, asbury tower
____________________________________
From: r...@tristatestormwatch.com
To: asburyst...@aol.com
Sent: 8/27/2011 7:22:16 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time
Subj: Hurricane Irene - August 27th - 5am
Approaching StormHURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY
COAST
HURRICANE IRENE TO IMPACT NEW JERSEY TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING
HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
Membership Feedback
AUGUST 27TH - 5:00 AM
Hurricane Irene is located about 90 miles south of the Outer Banks and
about 440 miles south of New Jersey. The hurricane has continued to weaken
as measured by highest sustained winds, which are down to 90 mph, however
the central pressure has not risen meaning Irene remains a very large
hurricane with strong winds over a huge area...but lacking a tight central
core
of extreme winds.
This does not change the projected effects as outlined here over the last
couple of days. This does however eliminate the threat of winds over
80mph. Irene is looking more and more like a flooding threat and not a
damaging wind threat.
It is interesting to observe that Cape Hatteras just gusted to 83mph and
Irene is about 110 miles from that location. So, to reiterate, the central
core is weakening but the large wind field remains in tact.
Rain begins this afternoon and ends by Noon on Sunday with 5 to 10 inches
of rain expected and localized amounts approaching 15 inches.
Winds will increase tonight out of the east...the worst of the winds will
be between midnight and noon. Although the winds will shift to west after
the center passes. The center will pass Atlantic City around 5:00am, Long
Beach Island between 6:00am and 7:00am and the Neptune area around
8:00am. Many areas may experience a calm period as the center of the storm
moves
over. Gusty west winds will then move in for a period of several hours.
Sunday afternoon is looking more and more as if sunshine will return and
winds begin to slacken.
The Sunday morning 7am high tide is of concern....east winds will have
been blowing for many hours and the tide is astronomically high. This tide
is likely to be 4 or 5 above normal which will be high enough to bring water
over the boardwalk is some areas and also flood areas around back bays
and lakes. Also remember that coastal lakes that drain into the ocean will
not be able to at high tide so flooding from rain around these lakes is
likely.
To sum up....this will be a very nasty storm but the potential for
widespread devastation and structural damage seems to be off the table at
this
hour. I dont want to downplay the event and leave the impression that all is
well, but I have been hearing a lot of doomsday talk from media outlets
and I dont see that occurring with Irene.
I will be putting quick observations on the web site from time to time as
we watch Irene make her way towards us.
AUGUST 26TH - 9:00 PM
Hurricane Irene is about 200 miles south-southeast of the Outer Banks and
about 550 miles south-southeast of the NJ coast. Highest sustained winds
have decreased to 100mph, however the radius of tropical storm force and
hurricane winds is massive. The cloud shield from Irene extends from Long
Island to central Florida. The satellite imagery of Irene was not overly
impressive during the day but has improved a bit over the last few hours.
Irene will make landfall late tonight over eastern North Carolina and
continue on a track near or just east of Norfolk, VA tomorrow morning.
Because the hurricane is very large, it is important not to focus on the
actual center of the storm because there is really no chance that we escape
the brunt of Irene.
Tropical storm force winds will arrive near or just before midnight
tomorrow night and continue late morning on Sunday.
Six foot swells have reached our waters and the high tide that just past
around 6pm this evening reached about half way between the standard high
water mark and the dunes in Ocean Grove. This is a bit disconcerting because
we are still three high tide cycles from the highest tide expected Sunday
morning.
The remaining aspects of the morning forecast remain in effect including
the projected rainfall and winds.
Next update will be Saturday morning
AUGUST 26TH - 1:00 PM
HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES
Midday forecast guidance reveals no changes in forecast track
Highest winds are 105mph, no further strengthening is expected. Irene is
a very large hurricane and strong winds extend well out from the center so
this lack of additional strengthening really does not impact the expected
conditions in our area.
The eye of Irene will likely be passing over the NJ coast between 5am and
7am down near Cape May and between 8am and 10am in the Neptune area.
Rain begins Saturday afternoon. Winds will increase and become very
strong around midnight Saturday night.
AUGUST 26TH - 5:00 AM
HURRICANE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NJ COAST. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION
At 5:00 am Hurricane Irene was located about 700 miles south of the NJ
coast with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. The hurricane has deepened
overnight as evidenced by a drop in central pressure (943mb) however this
deepening has translated into a more expansive wind field rather than higher
winds around the center. Hurricane force winds now extend outward from
the center by almost 100 miles and tropical storm force winds extend outward
about 300 miles.
Forecast guidance overnight has changed very little as far as the track
is concerned and Irene is still forecast to track over or just east of the
NJ coast. At this point there should be little focus on the track since
Irene is such a large storm, there will be major effects from the storm
regardless.
One important trend overnight is to accelerate Irene just a bit. This
has a significant impact in that it is going to bring the worst of Irene's
wrath closer to that all important Sunday 7am high tide. Irene's closest
passage looks to NJ looks to be between 8am and 11am and any further
acceleration is going to bring that window right into the high tide period.
Rain will begin Saturday afternoon. Rain and increasing wind will begin
around or just after midnight Saturday night. The worst of the hurricane
will occur between 4am and Noon on Sunday when wind gusts of 80mph may
occur.
Winds will back to the west after Irene passes our latitude and remain
gusty Sunday afternoon but skies will likely begin to clear.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated amounts approaching 15
inches, are expected throughout the state.
A storm surge of 3 to 6 feet is forecast by the National Weather Service
which will result in dangerous coastal flooding, complete washover of
beaches and the potential for damage to boardwalks, piers and other beachfront
structures.
At this point you should have hurricane preparations well underway. The
States of New Jersey and New York have both declared a state of emergency
as have most local governments. Please heed the advice and recommendations
being provided.
AUGUST 25TH - 5:00 PM
HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NJ COAST FROM CAPE MAY TO SANDY
HOOK
No changes to the 9:00 AM forecast at this time
AUGUST 25TH - 9:00 AM
She is big.....She is mean.....She is Hurricane Irene.....and like it or
not, she's coming our way.
At 8:00 am, Hurricane Irene was making her way through the northwest
Bahamas with highest winds of 115 mph. Irene has been going through an ERC
(eye replacement cycle) which has prevented additional strengthening, but that
process is nearly complete and the hurricane will likely gain strength
today and tonight.
Forecast guidance has shifted the forecast track of Irene decidedly to the
west. The track spray of the models are now all very close to the NJ
shore. A couple have a landfall in Ocean City, MD and then northward along
the Delaware River, a few more are right over the Jersey Shore and a few
others are just offshore.
The National Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Watch for the North
Carolina coast....additional watches are likely further north today,
tonight and tomorrow. The earliest time for a Hurricane Watch in New Jersey
is
late tonight or tomorrow morning.
We are still 2 1/2 days away from impact, but given the trends of the
forecast guidance, our area should prepare for, and expect, hurricane
conditions on Saturday night and Sunday with the possibility of a direct
landfall
on New Jersey, which has not occurred since 1903.
Assuming that Irene reaches Category 4 status later today, strikes eastern
North Carolina on Saturday afternoon as a Category 3 storm and then
tracks over or just east of our area as a Category 1 storm, wind gusts of
80mph
are possible Sunday morning with perhaps 90 mph south of Atlantic City.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected throughout the area.
Rain will begin Saturday afternoon well in advance of Irene
A storm surge of 3 to 4 feet is possible on the Jersey Shore which will
cause coastal flooding in the back bays. Along the oceanfront, the
landscape has changed dramatically over the last 15 years with sand
replenishment
and the installation of dune protection systems on many beaches. The
beaches are wider than then were when previous hurricanes passed by in 1944,
1954, 1960 and 1985 and caused boardwalk damage. The wider beaches will
certainly help, but the elevation has not changed so complete washover of the
beaches is likely. The dune protection systems will be put to the test by
Irene.
Irene will be north of the area around mid-afternoon on Sunday at which
time strong east winds will shift to the west and skies will rapidly clear.
Today is a good day to begin preliminary preparations such as removing or
securing loose outdoor items, fueling automobiles, and ensuring
flashlights are working.
I will continue to provide a daily e-mail update through Sunday however,
I will post updates on the web site from without sending an additional
e-mail so check back from time to time. I will post the next update around
4:00.
AUGUST 24TH - 7:00 PM - BRIEF UPDATE
Model data since midday has been indicating a track closer to the NJ coast
with the consensus of the data showing Irene passing within 50 miles of
the coast before making landfall on central Long Island. One of the most
trusted long range models is even closer than that. The models runs
tonight will be viewed with much interest. Obviously, a track this close
really
increases the concern for us for damaging winds and coastal flooding.
Full update in the morning, but if this westward trend holds overnight, the
forecast tomorrow will be a more dire than what was issued today.
AUGUST 24TH
At Noon, Hurricane Irene was moving through the southeastern Bahamas with
a clearly defined eye and maximum winds of 115mph. Irene will likely
continue to slowly strengthen today and Thursday and probably reach its peak
strength of around 140mph sometime on Thursday.
Forecast guidance has trended slightly east and that is reducing the
possibility of a direct hit on New Jersey...but that does not diminish the
fact
that we will have a very large and powerful hurricane moving through the
nearby offshore waters.
Best track estimate now is for Irene to be near the North Carolina Outer
Banks on Saturday afternoon and near eastern Long Island on Sunday
afternoon.
For the Jersey Shore, even though rain will likely begin during the day on
Saturday, the worst effects are likely to be between midnight Saturday
night to early afternoon on Sunday.
If Irene takes the estimated track described above, the Jersey Shore
would experience very heavy rains, wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph, tidal flooding
and complete washover of the beaches. Please remember we are still days
away from impact and there are still other track options to consider.....the
above is just to give an idea of what would occur should Irene take that
type of track.
Will continue to monitor and update daily, more frequent updates will
occur should anything change.
AUGUST 23RD
At Noon, Hurricane Irene was headed towards the southeastern Bahamas with
maximum sustained winds of 100mph. After strengthening last evening,
Irene's intensity has leveled off due to interaction with the mountainous
terrain of the Dominican Republic and Haiti to the south of the storm center.
As Irene continues to move further away, another round of strengthening
should occur.
Forecast guidance has shifted a bit to the east and is moving Irene a bit
faster. Given the latest data, landfall appears likely along the eastern
North Carolina coast between Morehead City and the Outer Banks on Saturday
afternoon.
>From that point, the big question is how much of an easterly component
will Irene take along its general northward motion. A track slightly east of
due north will bring a dangerous track from Norfolk, VA to Ocean City, MD
to along the Jersey Shore to Long Island. A bit more easterly component
brings the hurricane back over the water east of Norfolk, 50 to 100 miles
east of NJ followed by landfall on eastern Long Island or southeastern New
England.
Those two scenarios appear to be range we are looking at today. An
inland track to our west does not appear likely as this time. The big
questions
are how strong is the western Atlantic ridge which will act to keep the
hurricane close to the coast versus how strong is a trough moving into the
area from the west which will try to push Irene offshore.
Although landfall on North Carolina will certainly weaken Irene, she will
not weaken as rapidly as must tropical systems do when they pass north of
North Carolina. The prevailing westerlies associated with the jet stream
that usually reside over our area are displaced well to the north;
therefore, Irene will not be sheared apart and will experience a much more
favorable upper air environment than that which is climatologically expected
at
our latitude.
Large swells will likely arrive on the coastal waters on Friday. No
matter what track Irene takes, rain and wind will follow on Sunday. The
question is whether the winds are just gusty squalls or very strong and
damaging.
Tides are astronomically high over the weekend, so coastal flooding will
be a concern.
As Irene moves through the Bahama islands today and Wednesday, conditions
appear favorable for strengthening and Irene certainly has the potential
to be a Category 4 hurricane (135 mph + winds) at on Wednesday and Thursday.
Will continue to monitor trends and guidance...all are urged to keep
abreast of the latest updates
© Tri-State Storm Watch. All rights reserved.
If you are unable to read this e-mail, please go to:
_http://www.tristatestormwatch.com/pages/forecast_
(http://www.tristatestormwatch.com/pages/forecast) .
Tri-State Storm Watch 1234 Any Street Shark River Hills NJ USA
If you do not wish to receive messages from us, _click here_
(http://www.tristatestormwatch.com/livesite/unsubscribe.php?email_address=asburysteve@aol
.com) .
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
------------------------------------
Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/AsburyPark/
<*> Your email settings:
Individual Email | Traditional
<*> To change settings online go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/AsburyPark/join
(Yahoo! ID required)
<*> To change settings via email:
asburypark-dig...@yahoogroups.com
asburypark-fullfeatu...@yahoogroups.com
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
asburypark-unsubscr...@yahoogroups.com
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
