steve herman, 610 sewall ave
____________________________________
From: r...@tristatestormwatch.com
To: asburyst...@aol.com
Sent: 11/7/2012 11:00:51 A.M. Eastern Standard Time
Subj: Weather Update - November 7th
Approaching StormNOR'EASTER WILL BRING RAIN, SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TODAY
AND TONIGHT
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END THURSDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE
NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST TO OUR SOUTH IS GOOD NEWS FOR THE COASTAL
FLOOD THREAT BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY - NOVEMBER 7TH - 9AM
A Nor'Easter is currently deepening over the coastal waters east of
Delaware. Current observations indicate that the storm is far enough
offshore
such that winds along the coast from New Jersey through Maryland are from
the due north. This is a positive development in regards to the concern for
coastal flooding. While the coastal flood threat is certainly not
eliminated, the flooding should be confined to those areas that normally flood
during a typical Nor'Easter. The times of high tide are around 12:30 p.m.
this afternoon and overnight tonight around 1:30 a.m.
The threat of snow with this storm continues to increase and it looks like
much of interior New Jersey will see 2 to 6 inches of snow. Along the
immediate coast, 1 to 2 inches of snow is possible. The snow will be falling
this afternoon and this evening. After midnight tonight, temperatures
should warm enough to cause a change to light rain.
Winds will continue to increase this morning and gust to around 55mph
along the coast and 45mph inland this afternoon and evening.
On Thursday, much of the precipitation will be in the form of rain and be
spotty and light. Northwest winds will only slowly subside during the day
on Thursday.
TUESDAY - NOVEMBER 6TH - 7AM
A significant coastal storm is on the way for Wednesday and Thursday but
there are some changes in the computer guidance that has resulted in changes
to the forecast.
The storm now appears that it will be a bit further offshore as it tracks
slowly northward along the East Coast.
Wind - The wind from the storm will now have more of a northerly component
rather than northeast. Winds will increase during the day on Wednesday
and gust to 50 mph to 55 mph by from late Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday morning.
Coastal flooding - With winds more northerly, the degree of coastal
flooding is reduced, but certainly not eliminated. Residents in low lying
areas
should still prepare for the possibility of moderate coastal flooding.
The tides to watch are early Wednesday afternoon, overnight Wednesday (1:30
a.m. on Thursday) and early Thursday afternoon. The highest tide of the
three will be the overnight Wednesday high tide cycle.
Precipitation - Here is where the forecast is taking an interesting twist,
the further offshore track will allow colder air to enter the region and a
change to snow is now likely over much of the state later Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night. Snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are
possible
statewide with the exception of the immediate coast where a slushy
coating can be expected. With the relatively warm ground temperatures, snow
will
have a difficult time accumulating on roadways, so travel should not be
impacted.
On Thursday, snow and rain will become more intermittent and showery in
nature. Winds will slowly subside during the day.
A warming trend and a break from this weather madness is still on tap for
the weekend.
MONDAY - NOVEMBER 5TH - NOON
A coastal storm will be developing just off the southeast U.S. coast on
Tuesday. The storm will move slowly northward along the mid-Atlantic coast
on Wednesday and Thursday. This storm will bring rain beginning on
Wednesday morning and continuing into Thursday.
As the storm strengthens, northeast winds will increase during the day on
Wednesday. Wind gusts up to 55 mph are likely later Wednesday afternoon,
Wednesday night and Thursday morning. As the storm continues to move
slowly to our north later Thursday, winds will slowly subside.
It is anticipated that this storm will bring moderate coastal flooding at
the times of high tide on Wednesday around 12:30 pm, and particularly at
the two high tides on Thursday at 1:30 am and Thursday at 1:40 pm. The
coastal flooding will be no where near the severity that was experienced last
Monday, but flooding will occur in the usual low lying areas.
Cold conditions will accompany the storm with temperatures generally in
the upper 30s to mid 40s both Wednesday and Thursday.
Clearing conditions and a warming trend will begin on Friday.
SUNDAY - NOVEMBER 4TH - 7:00 AM
Partly sunny skies but below normal temperatures will continue through
Tuesday with high temperatures in the upper 40s and lows around 30.
A storm will be developing on Tuesday over the southeast U.S. and begin
tracking northeastward along the coast. The storm will be a slow mover so
rain and wind will be an issue in our area from late Tuesday night into
Thursday.
Rain will begin by sunrise Wednesday and continue into Thursday.
Northeast winds will be in the increase and could gust as high as 55 mph
Wednesday
afternoon, Wednesday night and Thursday morning. As the storm moves to
our north later Thursday winds will shift to the north and northwest and
slowly subside.
Rain could end as wet snow on Thursday over inland sections.
Coastal flooding is possible with this storm Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday morning. The flooding will certainly not be as severe as
experienced with Sandy but this has the potential to be a moderate coastal
flooding
event. The oceanfront is more vulnerable to coastal flooding due to the
loss of dune systems and bulkheading so this situation will have to be
monitored. In the back bays, coastal flooding will be on a par with what is
normally experienced during a significant Nor'Easter.
Efforts should continue in earnest to remove flood damaged items and
debris from the hard hit areas throughout coastal NJ in advance of this storm.
After the storm, a period of mild weather is likely.
FRIDAY - NOVEMBER 2ND - 3:00 PM
Will do a Hurricane Sandy wrap-up once things return to normal. In
Neptune, many good people suffered significant damage to their homes, but the
outpouring of support and resources from folks all throughout the eastern
U.S. has been nothing short of amazing.
Unfortunately, we have another storm event on the horizon, but let's put
it out there right now that this will be nothing like we experienced with
Sandy. A developing coastal storm along the Carolina coast on Tuesday night
will move slowly northward up the coast Wednesday and Thursday. Rain
will begin Wednesday morning and continue through much of Thursday. As the
storm strengthens, northeast winds will gust to 40 mph Wednesday night and
early Thursday before backing to the northwest on Thursday. Temperatures
will be chilly through the event and before the precipitation ends on
Thursday, there is a chance that some wet snowflakes could mix in.
This storm will be a typical cold season nor'easter that we normally
experience several times a year. There could be some minor coastal flooding
in
roadways at the time of high tide, but no damaging coastal flooding will
occur.
Skies will clear by Friday and a rather mild weekend will follow on
November 10th/11th.
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