____________________________________
From: r...@tristatestormwatch.com
To: asburyst...@aol.com
Sent: 2/6/2013 2:28:07 P.M. Eastern Standard Time
Subj: Weather Update - February 6th
MAJOR NOR'EASTER LIKELY FRIDAY, FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
HIGH WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
SNOW EARLY FRIDAY CHANGES TO HEAVY RAIN AND THEN BACK TO HEAVY SNOW LATER
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCATION
WEDNESDAY - FEBRUARY 6TH
Major Nor'Easter headed this way for Friday through Saturday morning
Forecast guidance has trended stronger and colder with a more aggressive
phase of jet stream energy. The European model has led the way on this for
several days and with the other guidance now signaling a big event, the
chance of a big storm is now quite high.
What is certain is high winds and a lot of precipitation. The big
challenge is precipitation type, which is dependent on the timing of transfer
from energy to our west to energy to our south and east. The quicker the
transfer, the more frozen precipitation for the area. Also, as the upper
flow closes off, the storm will slow down for a time later Friday night. If
the surface low pressure is close enough to the coastline when the flow
closes off, snow will be prolonged into Saturday morning
Best estimate right now is that light snow breaks out around sunrise
Friday and changes to rain everywhere except north and west of I-287. During
the afternoon, as the coastal low takes over and deepens, the rain/snow line
will move southeast. There will be an area of very heavy precipitation
late Friday afternoon Friday night, so it makes a big difference in snow
amounts when the changeover occurs.
Snow for everyone Friday night and early Saturday morning.
Confidence is increasing that everyone in NJ north and east of the AC
Expressway will see significant snow...including NYC metro. Its also worth
noting that most of New England is going to get hammered by this storm with
amounts of two feet + possible.
Northeast winds will increase and be gusting from 40mph to 50mph later
Friday and Friday night. Will be monitoring the potential for coastal
flooding Friday night, but this will not be a major coastal flooding event.
Skies will clear later Saturday.
TUESDAY - FEBRUARY 5TH
Big Nor'Easter/winter storm is on the way for Friday.
Over the last few days, computer forecast guidance has converged on the
idea of a big coastal storm for Friday and Friday night. Although some key
elements for a big winter storm are present, there are also some things
working against seeing a lot of snow for our area. The strength of the
storm, amount of precipitation and precipitation type are all dependent on the
ultimate strength and phasing of a piece of energy in the northern jet with
energy in the southern jet stream. The northern energy will be moving
through northern Ohio and western New York State on Thursday night.
Meanwhile southern stream energy will be moving towards the Carolina coast.
Surface low pressure to our west will weaken and redevelop off the Outer Banks
and deepen rapidly and move toward Cape Cod on Friday and Friday night.
The low to our west will transport warm air into the region so initially
precipitation will start as rain on Friday morning. As the coastal low
takes over, winds will switch to the north and colder air will be drawn back
into the region. This should change the rain to heavy wet snow...from
north to south across the state. The amount of snow will be dependent on the
ultimate track and time of transfer to the coastal low, but even with the
precipitation starting as rain, there could be significant amounts of snow
Friday afternoon and Friday night.
Strong northeast winds will accompany the storm. There could be some
coastal flooding at high tide, but the degree of flooding should be held in
check due because winds will not be due east and the storm will be a relative
quick mover.
Will be fine tuning the forecast over the next few days as we get closer
the event.
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Tri-State Storm Watch 1234 Any Street Shark River Hills NJ USA
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Steve Herman, 610 Sewall Ave
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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