now we can get 6-12"
steve herman 610 sewall ave
____________________________________
From: r...@tristatestormwatch.com
To: asburyst...@aol.com
Sent: 2/7/2013 3:09:30 P.M. Eastern Standard Time
Subj: Weather Update - 2/7 2PM - Snowfall amounts revised upward
MAJOR NOR'EASTER LIKELY FRIDAY, FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
HIGH WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
SNOW EARLY FRIDAY CHANGES TO MIX/RAIN AND THEN CHANGES TO HEAVY SNOW LATER
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE STORM......FORECAST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING
THURSDAY - FEBRUARY 7TH - 2PM UPDATE
Forecast guidance continues to be more impressive with the impending
Nor'Easter. Stronger energy in both jet streams and favorable phasing are
all
pointing towards a colder solution and more precipitation for our area.
Precipitation will be moving in Friday morning as snow or a mix along the
coast. The change to rain now looks to be only for a brief period north of
I-78 and just outside of NYC.
The change to rain will occur in central and south NJ and the change back
to snow should still follow the times outlined this morning...perhaps an
hour earlier.
Once the rain changes to snow, the guidance is really spitting out some
very intense snowfall rates tomorrow night. There may be several hours of 2
to 3 inch snowfall rates along with heavy blowing and drifting.
End time for the snow will still be a couple of hours on either side of
sunrise on Saturday.
The snowfall accumulations are revised upward as follows:
Monmouth/northern Ocean and the remainder of the northern half of NJ - 6
to 12 inches.
Northeast corner of NJ east of I-287 and north of I-280 including all of
NYC - 12 to 18 inches
Southern Burlington/Southern Ocean/Philly/North of AC Expressway - 4 to 8
inches
South of AC Expressway - 2 to 5 inches
THURSDAY - FEBRUARY 7TH
Big coastal storm still on track for Friday through Saturday morning.
Its time to get more specific with timing and snow amounts.
Snow or a mix of snow and sleet will begin in the early morning hours
between 5am and 8am. This precipitation will not be heavy and should not
cause much in the way of problems for the morning rush hour. As the day
progresses on Friday precipitation will change over to plain rain, with the
exception being the area north of I-80 where 1 to 2 inches of snow may
accumulate during the day on Friday. Elsewhere, there will be little or no
snow
accumulation during the day on Friday
Winds will be on the increase during the day on Friday, but again, during
the daylight hours conditions will not be bad. As we approach late
afternoon and evening, any rain will be changing to snow from west to east.
The
changeover is going to occur very close to the evening rush hour,
particularly in northern NJ. The entire region should be snowing by 7pm or
8pm and
the snow will become heavy, temperatures will fall back into the 20s and
the winds will cause blowing and drifting.
Travel during Friday night is discouraged.
Snow will end a couple of hours before sunset in the western part of
NJ/Philly and just after sunrise in eastern NJ/NYC
South of I-80 where the precipitation will be rain on Friday, the
changeover to snow will occur from west to east starting between 3pm and 5pm
and
making its way to the coastline between 6pm and 8pm.
Here are the estimated snow accumulations for Friday night:
Monmouth/northern Ocean and the remainder of the northern half of
NJ/southern sections of NYC - 4 to 8 inches
Northeast corner of NJ east of I-287 and north of I-280/northern and
eastern sections of NYC - 8 to 12 inches
Southern Burlington/Southern Ocean/Philly/north of the AC Expressway - 2
to 5 inches
South of AC Expressway - 1 to 3 inches
Winds will gust to 50mph Friday night. Minor coastal flooding is likely
overnight Friday.
Saturday will see clearing skies with windy conditions in the morning,
slowly subsiding by afternoon.
Clear Sunday and rain for Monday
Check back early this afternoon for a quick update.
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