____________________________________
From: r...@tristatestormwatch.com
To: asburyst...@aol.com
Sent: 3/5/2013 9:16:05 A.M. Eastern Standard Time
Subj: Nor'Easter Update - March 5th
MAJOR EAST COAST STORM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS TO 60
MPH...WORST OF THE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RAIN WEDNESDAY TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BACK TO
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THURSDAY
TUESDAY - MARCH 5TH
A large slow moving storm will impact our area from Wednesday morning
through Thursday night.
Deepening low pressure will be centered near Norfolk, VA on Wednesday
morning, then move northeast during the day on Wednesday. The forward motion
of the storm will than be halted by a block over eastern Canada which will
force the storm on a slow east to southeast drift Wednesday night through
Friday.
Precipitation will break out Wednesday morning over southern and central
NJ as mostly rain or a rain/snow mix inland. Precipitation will reach
northern NJ around midday as a rain/snow mix.
There may be a lull in the precipitation early Wednesday afternoon before
heavier precipitation moves in later Wednesday afternoon. By late in the
afternoon, rain or mixed rain/snow will be changing to all snow. Snow will
continue Wednesday night.
Snow amounts will be difficult to forecast throughout this entire event
due to strong easterly flow, marginal surface temperatures and banding
features pivoting around the fully occluded and stacked area of low pressure.
Best estimate right now is for 2 to 5 inches of wet snow throughout the
area with perhaps as much as 6 inches over interior southern NJ where the
heaviest banding will take place. Forecasting the location of the best lift
and forcing (under which the most snow will fall) is a complete guess right
now.
On Thursday, the storm lingers offshore and waves of mixed rain and snow
will be pivoting in from the east. Temperatures on Thursday will be above
freezing. On Thursday night, additional jet stream energy could intensify
the precipitation once again causing additional light accumulations of wet
snow. By Friday, we should be left with just some leftover rain showers.
There will be strong and gusty northeast winds for at least a 36 hour
period from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon. Wind gusts of 40
mph will be common, except overnight Wednesday when wind gusts of 50 mph to
60 mph are possible.
Tides will be up for 4 tide cycles. Tides of up to 2 feet above normal
will occur at the times of high tide Wednesday afternoon, Thursday afternoon
and very early Friday morning. The high tide that occurs around 2am on
Thursday will be 3 to perhaps 4 feet above normal causing moderate coastal
flooding. This will flood the streets in areas normally prone to coastal
flooding and vehicles should be removed from these locations. Fortunately,
astronomical tides are not high during this period. A complete washover
of the beaches is likely Wednesday night and beach erosion will be an issue
due to the persistent high tides and rough surf.
Additional updates will be provided through the day.
MONDAY - MARCH 4TH
Very potent upper level energy will be moving through Chicago, the Ohio
Valley, southern VA and off the VA coast over the next 48 to 60 hours. This
will initiate strong low pressure to develop near Cape Hatteras. While the
wind and moderate coastal aspects of the storm have remained unchanged
for the last several days, the track of the surface low has been trending
from due east offshore of the NC coast to a more northeast trajectory to off
the New England coast. This has raised the chances for heavy precipitation
into much of NJ, particularly coastal sections and south of I-78. This
precipitation most likely will start as rain during the day on Wednesday, but
as precipitation gets heavy towards Wednesday night, dynamic cooling will
take place and rain will change to snow.
With surface temperatures no colder than 32 or 33, this will be a wet
snow, but it things continue to trend as they have been over the last 24
hours, this could be a heavy snow event. With temperatures borderline for
snow, its difficult to pinpoint exactly where the heavy snow will fall because
it is all dependent on the rate of precipitation, but at least parts of our
area are now under at least the threat of a heavy snowstorm Wednesday
night.
The wind and tidal forecast remains the same as described yesterday. The
high tide that will likely produce moderate coastal flooding and possible
washover of the beaches will be Wednesday night, just after midnight. Wind
gusts of 50mph to 60mph are likely from Wednesday evening through Thursday
morning.
SUNDAY - 4:30 P.M.
Going over all of the guidance this afternoon and its quite a lesson in
the atmospheric interaction of several entities....to which very small
changes will have profound effects to our sensible weather. All of the
guidance, with the important exception of the European model and the not so
important UKMET model, have trended to take the main storm and phase it a bit
with exiting energy off the New England coast, rather than this energy acting
to supress the storm. This means no change to the forecast for points
south and west of us, but its a big deal for NJ because it causes the storm
to gain some latitude offshore rather than moving due east from the
southeast VA coast.
So most of the guidance is dropping more precipitation over NJ,
particularly from I-195 south. So becoming a bit more wary about a heavy wet
snow
impacting south NJ and the Philly area....not ready to call it likely but
this is going to be interesting to watch over the next several days.
I hit the wind aspect of this storm a bit in the update earlier today, but
want to reiterate that we could be looking at 50mph to 60mph wind gusts
for almost 24 hours from around midday Wednesday to midday Thursday. Still
going with the idea that coastal flooding in the Monmouth and Ocean County
areas will be what we normally see with a healthy Nor'Easter....that being
street flooding in the usual areas, but the beaches could certainly
washover with the lack of dune protection. No structural damage expected.
Farther south in Atlantic County and particularly Cape May County and the
Delaware Bay....this could be a more significant coastal flooding event
particularly with the overnight high tide on Wednesday night. If you are
along
the coast in those areas, I would pay particular attention to future
forecasts.
Now, back to Monmouth and Ocean, you may be wondering if the coastal
flooding forecast could change if the storm comes farther north.. I do not
believe the coastal flood forecast will worsen for Monmouth and Ocean because
even if the storm comes farther north, it will do so offshore with a
resulting north to northeast wind rather than straight easterly. The big
variable in this area will be precipitation amounts and type and as I stated
earlier, this is getting interesting.
The forecast for a big snow event for the Baltimore/DC corridor and most
of Maryland and northern VA holds.
Quick peek ahead...much more tranquil and milder period follows this
storm. Around mid-month, blocking returns along with colder weather, i.e. no
early Spring this year.
SUNDAY, MARCH 3RD
Quick update on the midweek storm.....I know a lot of folks are concerned
about the coastal flooding aspect of the storm. Yes, there will be a slow
moving coastal storm that will bring a couple of days of strong gusty
northeast winds. Astronomical tides are low in this time period, so while
there certainly is the likelihood of coastal flooding and perhaps complete
washover of the beaches, I don't see this being an event that causes
additional damage to our vulnerable waterfront areas.
The precipitation forecast is tricky. There is a massive block in
eastern Canada and slowly departing jet stream energy off the New England
coast.
These two pieces of the puzzle are going to make it difficult for heavy
precipitation to reach our area. The surface temperatures during the event
are not all that cold, so frozen precipitation will be dependent on heavy
rates of precipitation bringing down cold air from up above. This is one
of these late season storms where if you do get precipitation, its either a
little rain or a lot of snow.
I think there will be a band of very heavy snow associated with the
storm. Right now that band looks to be in the Baltimore/DC area, including
much
of Maryland away from the coast as well as northern Virginia. The
precipitation gradient will be extreme because of the block pressing down from
the north. This could be a situation where Philadelphia gets about a 1/4
inch of rain, but Baltimore sees a foot of snow.
As we know from the past, coastal storms tend to trend northward on the
computer guidance as we get closer to the event and it would not take much to
get heavier precipitation rates into central and particularly southern
NJ. Two things working against this right now are the strength of the block
to the north and that the European model remains the furthest south of all
the guidance with its forecast precipitation field.
So for now, the concern around here with the storm is a prolonged period
of very gusty winds and several cycles of above normal high tides starting
Wednesday morning and continuing through Thursday. Will continue to
monitor closely and provide future updates as necessary.
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