steve herman 610 sewall ave
____________________________________
From: r...@tristatestormwatch.com
To: asburyst...@aol.com
Sent: 3/24/2013 2:54:44 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time
Subj: Weather Update - March 24th
WET SNOW AND WIND ON MONDAY
RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY MONDAY MORNING CHANGING TO WET SNOW
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON COLDER SURFACES WITH JUST SLUSH ON
ROADWAYS
HOWEVER, UNDER HEAVY BANDING, SOME AREAS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ COULD
SEE 6 INCHES
SUNDAY - MARCH 25TH
A snowy Monday on the way....but at this time of the year, accumulations
are highly dependent on the rate of snowfall. Any light or moderate snow
will melt on roadways and only accumulate slowly on grassy surfaces. Heavy
rates of snowfall would bring accumulations on all surfaces.
The timeframe for the snow is about 12 hours....starting around sunrise
and ending around sunset. The computer guidance is showing a compact storm
system that is going to have a deformation band of heavy snow on its
northwest side. It is under than band where snow will accumulate on all
surfaces and result in some travel problems Monday afternoon. The most
likely
location for the band of heavier snow is in central/southern NJ.
North to northeast winds will be on the increase Monday with gusts to 35
mph, but the storm will be moving out to sea Monday night so this will not
be a long duration wind event.
A general 2 to 4 inches of snow is possible over much of NJ, with lesser
amounts north of I-80. This accumulation will generally be on colder
surfaces such as grass and car tops, but again, there is likely to an area
somewhere in southern and/or central NJ where this ends up being a more
significant snow event with up to 6 inches possible. Will be watching radar
trends Monday morning to see exactly where this heavier band of snow will
park
itself.
All snow will end around or just after sunset Monday.
Easter weekend looks ok for now, but no warm up in sight.
SATURDAY - MARCH 24TH
The calendar says Spring, but winter is not done yet as computer guidance
is converging on the idea of a winter storm in our area Monday and Monday
night.
Low pressure moving through the Tennessee Valley will bring snow to
portions of the midwest and lower Ohio Valley. This storm will be forced to
redevelop off the mid-Atlantic coast as a result of strong blocking in the
higher latitudes.
As the storm gets cranking along the coast and begins to move
northeastward just off the Delaware and New Jersey coast, mixes precipitation
will
develop in the pre-dawn hours on Monday morning. While surface temperatures
will be in the 30s, it will be quite cold just above the surface, so as
precipitation gets heavier mixed precipitation should change to all
snow....first over inland sections and then along the coast.
With the track of the surface storm, placement of upper features and
amount of cold air available, this would certainly be a significant snowstorm
if it occurred in in January or February....but its late March and things
have to come together just right in order to get accumulating snow this time
of the year. The elevation of the sun above the horizon in late March is
the same as it is in mid-September, so even with cloud cover, the strong
late March sun is able to keep roadways warm enough to prevent snow from
accumulating....unless the snow falls very heavily.
What is becoming apparent is that the storm has the capability to produce
heavy precipitation so the door is open for accumulations area wide, first
on grassy surfaces, then perhaps on paved surfaces as the sun begins to
get lower in the horizon late in the day on Monday.
Will be providing a snowfall accumulation forecast later, but for now an
accumulating snow looks likely throughout the area Monday and Monday night
with better chances inland over higher elevations, but accumulations all
the way to the beaches are certainly possible.
After the storm, temperatures will be in the 40s for much of next week.
Still no signs of warm weather through the end of March and likely the
first week of April.
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Tri-State Storm Watch 1234 Any Street Shark River Hills NJ USA
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