That is plain English,
Chandan
If Assam is THE looser, then GOI is
not THE looser.
RB
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, January 18, 2006 10:42
AM
Subject: Re: [Assam] Reforms - The
CONCLUSION
>>You got it right, GOI
will not be the looser.
*** I said that?
I must be losing my mind!
Or then again, maybe it is not ME.
At 10:39 AM -0600 1/18/06, Rajen Barua wrote:
Because you said it.
>That would be an unfortunate outcome,
in which Assam will be the loser.
RB
----- Original Message -----
From: Chan
Mahanta
To: Rajen
Barua ; assam@assamnet.org ;
Roy, Santanu
Sent: Wednesday, January 18, 2006 9:30 AM
Subject: Re: [Assam] Reforms - The
CONCLUSION
>You got it right,
GOI will not be the looser.
*** Will you explain WHY?
At 9:28 AM -0600 1/18/06, Rajen Barua wrote:
>That would be an unfortunate
outcome, in which Assam will be the loser.
You got it right,
GOI will not be the looser.
But how can one who
is already a looser (Assam) be a looser again? You mean 'more
looser'?
RB
----- Original Message -----
From: Chan
Mahanta
To: assam@assamnet.org ; Roy, Santanu
Sent: Wednesday, January 18, 2006 9:13
AM
Subject: Re: [Assam] Reforms - The
CONCLUSION
Hi Santanu:
Of all the analyses, yours make the most sense, and I
agree with most of it. I also was not sure how Utpal's points
correlate with the ones you make. But be that as it may, allow
me to chime in here:
As I see it, the GOI thinks of
negotiations with ULFA as basically a process of waiting till the
latter is ready to surrender - the only talk it wants is to check
out if they are ready for that - and if that ever happens, they have
a stdandard face saving formula that they will offer - bits of
special powers for the state, maybe inner line permit, lots of
central funds (to fatten the leaders) and a political process to
return them to power in the state
elections.
>As I see it, the ULFA has no reason to accept such an
offer at this point.
**** I will have to agree with what you observe
above. I harbor similar concerns. The Naga non-negotiations and
the stand-still is an example of things to expect. However what
is unknown here is whether ULFA will submit itself to a prolonged
period of non-ability to put any pressure on GoI, by resumption of
violence again that is, if the talks do not progress. That would be
an unfortunate outcome, in which Assam will be the loser. It
therefore behooves the people of Assam--at least those who want to see
an end to the hostilities with some essential and measurable gains for
Assam, to put political/public opinion pressures on GoI . Similarly on
that segment of Assam's establishment and intelligentsia, who is
opposed to meaningful and substantive governmental
reforms
and regaining of controls over its resources, either
willfully or unwittingly.
________________________________________________________________________________
*** I wrote the above on Monday, on my way back to
St.Louis. Since then, we have already seen things changing, like
ULFA's notice to OIL ( or was it ONGC? ), and an editorial in the
Sentinel of yesterday's, in which it criticizes ( rightly, for a
change) the ghee-belly-governor-general's 'bad-cop' talk,
contradicting Delhi's willingness to engage in talks with ULFA
for a negotiated settlement of the conflict. While it could be given
the benefit of the doubt that Dilli's right hand does not know what
its left is doing, a frequent phenomenon, I will be loathe to accept
it. It looks more and more like that ol' "good-cop, bad-cop" routine.
Does ULFA see the handwriting on the wall? I will have to believe they
do, very well.
And it does not bode well.
________________________________________________________________________________
Like we discussed earlier , here arises the importance of
a concerted political effort both on ULFA's part as well as that
segment of Assam which is sympathetic to ULFA's efforts on behalf of
Assam, as an essential concurrent movement.
Reluctantly, I am resigned to the notion that the tiny
segment that is beholden to Delhi's interests should be ignored as
irrelevant and a complete waste of effort.
But those of us who do care, have an important role to
play: To help move the efforts for a negotiated along, by mobilizing
public support. One such effort would be by offering ideas for a
reformed Assam governance, based on real ( asc opposed to the desi
kind) democratic concepts and principles.
c-da
At 10:18 PM -0600 1/13/06, Roy, Santanu
wrote:
Utpal: I agree with your
vision. The way I see it - in the short run, there is almost
nothing substantive that one can get the GOI to accede to in terms
of effective decentralization of power or plebscite or any other
adjustment to the political relationship between Delhi and Assam.
The babus and polticians that run Delhi are under almost no pressure
at all. Chandan-da suggested that the pressure might come from
the fact that New Delhi wants to look like a big world power and
carry international prestige & it can't do that with an armed
rebellion and suppression of liberty in one part of its country. I
actually don't think that India has any such ambition. India want to
be China in terms of international leverage. China routinely
suppresses even peaceful peasant movements by brute force.
International power follows from aggregate economic and military
might. It does not require internal democracy or liberty. Countries
like today's India, China, current Russia, Iran, Turkey are not very
civil (I know I am going to be lynched for saying this)- they do not
aim to project their power through moral superiority of their
internal social
order.
The only way a rebellion in Assam would threaten India's
ascendency would be if it made India look unstable. But like
Chechnya or even the Kurdish border in Turkey, Assam is almost a
detached fringe of Indian society. It cannot destabilize India as of
now.
Therefore, I see no closure in
sight. I also agree with you that hope lies in history. None of
us concievably imagine what the geopolitical map of the world will
look like 20 or 30 years from now. To take advantage of historical
opportunities (like your third world war), one needs to have a
strong civil movement at the grassroot level - a cohesive
nationality formation process. That is much harder than armed
insurrection. Santanu.
-----Original
Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] on behalf of
Malabika Brahma Sent: Sat 1/14/2006 10:57
AM
To: assam@assamnet.org Subject: Re: [Assam] Reforms -
The CONCLUSION Ram da asked some very practical
questions. We all know that the GOI is controlled by politicians who
gives a damn if Assam or NE bleeds to death.
Here is the fact (as stressed by
Santanu ) Those who control GOI are
politicians who care less for the people of Assam and NE and care
less for the lives of soldiers that die in NE. So achieving
independence through an armed struggle is next to
impossible. The only way independence can
be achieved are: 1. By making
constitutional amendment to include "instrument of secession" in
Indian constitution and influencing upon the GOI to hold a
plesbicite in Assam/NE and hope that majority of the people vote for
secession. But this can not be achieved unless there is move to
build a consensus in the National level.
2. By hoping that a 3rd world war
breaks out and GOI finds it impossible to manage the present
political India. Actually in my opinion 2nd world war is what
helped India win its independence from the British. It became too
expensive for Britain to maintain its colonies because of its
involvement in the war. This again is highly
unlikely. May be Chandan da or Mike da
knows some other Practical Means of achieving independence that we
are missing. That's why I think
"Independence of Assam/NE is excellent to have but not possible to
achieve". So why build castles in the air
? But yes, if we can force GOI to hold a
plesbicite, that will be the greatest victory. What will be the
outcome of the plesbicite , is left to speculation of
course.
But one thing we have to
understand, for Government of India , ULFA and NDFB may not
count, but for Assam and NE, they are our boys after all. When
one ULFA/NDFB member gets eliminated, one of my brother or sister is
getting eliminated. Utpal
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