Some issues to think about.

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T he ULFA Chairman, Arabinda Rajkhowa's letter to the US President
seeking his intervention in resolving the "Assam-India" conflict is
clearly a sign of the measure of desperation into which the militant
outfit has fallen into. More than that, it clearly reveals the utter
political immaturity of an organization which has been waging war
against the Indian State for the last 25 years and more. One expected
that all these years of struggle would have added something to the
ULFA's ideological basket, but the Chairman's recent statements
virtually welcoming the influx from Bangladesh and his appeal to big
brother Bush show the utter political bankruptcy of an outfit which
promises to liberate the people of Assam from the Indian yoke. On
earlier occasions too the ULFA leadership had displayed quite a large
measure of political imbecility. For instance, one remembers the
ULFA's statements supporting Pakistan during the Kargil war. This was
in sharp contrast to the position adopted by the Naga underground
under the leadership of the Naga National Council during the Chinese
aggression of 1962 when, unofficially, it is said to have suspended
its operations against the Government of India.

Mr Rajkhowa's letter to the American President shows total lack of
understanding of the international situation. He seems to be unaware
of the clear shift after September 11 in the US position in relation
to movements for self-determination in different parts of the world.
The very concepts of self-determination and autonomy have undergone
radical change in a US-dominated world where international terrorism
is the main target today. While the NSCN(I-M) has done its homework
well and has been able to read the changing equations in today's
international scene, the ULFA seems stuck on its idea of a sovereign
Assam. Unlike the ULFA, the NSCN(I-M) leadership knows what it is
talking about, (however unacceptable this may be to the GOI) for they
have been honing their skills at negotiations side by side with their
armed struggle. For the ULFA, the demand for a sovereign Assam seems
to be just a convenient shield to cover up its ideological bankruptcy.

The possibility of ULFA-GOI talks has kindled a lot of hope in the
minds of the people of Assam who seem to have reached the dead end of
violence. But have we ever asked ourselves as to whether the militant
outfit is politically equipped for such negotiations with as
experienced a side as the Government of India? Over the years, while
dealing with different forms of armed conflict ever since it came into
existence, the Indian State has acquired a degree of sophistication
which would be extremely difficult for militaristic organizations like
ULFA to match. Even the NSCN(I-M) which has perfected its political
skills so well, is finding the going quite tough in its negotiations
with New Delhi. If the recent statements of the ULFA leaders are any
indication, then the organization seems least prepared for protracted
negotiations. Far removed as they are from the ground realities of the
international scene and of developments at home, the ULFA leadership
has been attempting to cover its weakness by a show of bravado and
arrogance, which is actually a sign of their desperation. Suppose the
talks eventually materialize? Apart from its apparently intractable
position on sovereignty, what else would the ULFA be prepared to
discuss? Or, would the ULFA's agenda for the talks be decided by its
mentors in Bangladesh? Or would they ask Mr Bush to help them out?

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