Re: [Assam] Is India an 'Undeserving superpower' ?

[umesh sharma]

Ram-da,

 

I believe that just like we cannot choose our parents after we are born --or children for that matter --it is better to go for plastic surgery or operate -and improve the current systems than compare unrealistic situations in Indian democratic context.

 

Umesh

Ram Sarangapani <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

Here is an article by Jeremy Carl, who is a Visiting Fellow in
Resource and Development Economics at The Energy and Resources
Institute in New Delhi.

The author has pointed out the challenges India faces - breucracy,
poverty etc, and then compares India to China. Though he acknowledges
that India is a democracy while China is not, this goes back to one
basic question I have:

Should a country develop first into first rate country, and then worry
about democracy, or should it be the other way around? Can both of
these be instituted in a new country?

Some people, (and a number of netters) are not at all happy with the
democratic institutions in India.

What would they rather choose - strengthen democratic institutions in
India, break away and try their own experiment, or opt for something
like China with vastly restricted ! freedoms for the sake of
developement?

--Ram

_____________________________
http://sify.com/news/othernews/fullstory.php?id=13876831&page=1

India & China: 'Undeserving superpowers'?

By Jeremy Carl
Monday, 20 June , 2005, 13:25

While American foreign policy remains focused on Iraq in the
short-term, those taking a longer-term view certainly understand that
we are entering the Asian Century, 100 Years that will likely be led
by China and India.
The US Central Intelligence Agency's 9CIA0 recent "2020 project",
issued by the National Intelligence Council, says that China and India
will be "new major global players" that will "transform the
geopolitical landscape".

Even before this document was issued, American policymakers were
certainly aware that China was a rising power. Will India be able to
join the great power club as well?

The CIA report is as good a synthesis as exists on current US
strategic thinking on China and India. And it emphasises they key
point in determining the geopolitical role that China and India will
play over the coming decades: "Their standard of living need not
approach Western levels for these countries to become important
economic powers."

In America's eyes, China and India are already at the cusp of becoming
"undeserving superpowers" -- that is, due to their tremendous
population, they can become superpowers on the global scale without
necessarily building a fully modern and prosperous state that respects
the lives and rights of their citizens.

This situation is without precedent in modern international relations
is the fundamental fact that will govern US views of China and India
in the years ahead. It is in the U.S. national interest to have China
and India become deserving superpowers-that is, to become superpowers
based not just their population but on their ability to be effective,
functional, and prosperous democracies that will be good global
citizens.

Over the last half century, Americans have not generally taken a
positive view of the Indian and Chinese states. India was held at
arm's length during the Nehru years, and India's official
non-alignment (with a sympathetic tilt towards the Soviet Union)
caused much bitterness in Washington and hampered the construction of
meaningful Indo-US relationship.

Meanwhile, in American eyes, China was the "Red Menace" with the US
staunchly backing Chiang-Kai-shek's nationalist regime long after it
had fled into exile in Taiwan.

Of course Mao Zedong's xenophobic policies and economic disasters such
The Great Leap Forward, where 30 million Chinese starved to death, did
not make a rapprochement easy.

In the late 1970s, Deng Xiaoping brought China out of the shadows and
began its ascent into superpower status. Will Manmohan Singh, who asfinance minister ushered in India's reforms, be able to do the same?

A couple of decades ago, if you asked the average American to mention
what came to mind when he thought of India, her would probably say
something along the lines of poverty, overpopulation, and filth-India
was seen as an exotic yet somewhat benighted land of the Taj Mahal,
elephants, snakecharmers, and Mother Teresa.

Particularly among an older generation, these attitudes still persist,
to some degree. "Why would you ever want to move there?" a middle-aged
couple asked my wife with horror when we informed them that we were
relocating to Delhi.

While these old attitudes (and a measure of the underlying reality)
still remain, happily, however, American attitudes toward India are
rapidly changing. The opening of the Indian economy in 1991, and the
resultant IT-led growth, has rapidly changed India's image in many
American's eyes.

Greater familiarity with I! ndian culture also erased simplistic earlier
impressions. The number of Indian Americans doubled between 1990 and
2000 and quadrupled between 1980 and 2000. Indian-Americans are now
America's wealthiest ethnic group.

This greater familiarity has done much to push away the older image,
especially in the eyes of a younger generation, who have grown up
knowing Indians and Indian Americans and seeing Indian success
stories. Increased tourism to India has also brought a greater
familiarity with the country.

The beginnings of non-resident Indian (NRI) political power,
particularly with the emergence of rising stars such as US Congressman
Piyush "Bobby" Jindal in Louisiana, will see the community taking on
an ever-more-prominent role.

On the other hand, many American policymakers still see India as prone
to "punching above its weight", making pronouncements and attempting
to influence global affairs beyond all bounds of its current economic
or military power.

While this bombastic tendency has diminished somewhat since the Nehru
years, it is still, in American eyes, very much a feature of Indian
statecraft.

American policymakers who have spent time in India are well aware of
how desperately poor and backward much of India still is -- although
this fact is seemingly lost on many of India's elite.
While China has made great progress on poverty, India has been much
slower to improve in this regard. Speaking personally, it is difficult
to take moral pronouncements on global politics too seriously from a
country that does such a poor job of providing even rudimentary food
and housing for so many of its citizens. If India wants to become a
major player on the global stage, it first has to put its own house in
order.

India's "stifling bureaucracy" (In the words of the CIA report) is
probably the largest barrier between the country achieving great power
status in reality and in the eyes of Americans. A recent national
survey showed that while young Chinese dreamed of being entrepreneurs,
the civil service was still the dream job for most young Indians.

While the government certainly needs talented people, this survey
indicates a continued statist mentality in India that seems certain to
hamper its emergence as a dynamic nation with a strong private sector.

India's sense of self-respect will also have to improve before the
country can be elevated to a power by China's side.

The younger generation, typified by many of my work colleagues, have
made dramatic strides in this regard-but among much of the older
generation, there is still an uncomfortably obvious attempt to put on
a show of some sort for Westerners.

I almost never experienced similar behaviour during my time in China.
Other risks that could jeopardise India's climb to great power status
include ren! ewed hostilities with Pakistan, a continued unwillingness
to combat corruption, or the renewal of sectarian violence such as was
witnessed in Gujarat in 2002.



If India's policies must still improve if it is to become a global
power, the timing of its emergence is, at least, impeccable. India has
emerged at a time when US policymakers are particularly eager to reach
out to a new power in Asia that can counteract the growing influence
of China. Furthermore, India has a large and relatively
well-integrated Muslim population to which the US is very interested
in building a bridge in the wake of 9/11.

"Hindi Chini, Bhai Bhai" rhetoric aside, it would seem to be in both
India's and America's interests to check China's influence. While the
US does not want to see Indian regional dominance of Asia, the reality
is that economically China is 15 years ahead of India economically,
and that its lead is growing and not shrinking, so In! dian regional
dominance is not seen as likely by American policymakers.

With India checking China's influence, China may be more concerned
about its own neighbourhood than causing trouble for the US. India is
in a natural position to do this, with a growing economy and its own
desire to maintain a strong position in Asia. This increasing
commonality of interests will draw India into a closer alliance with
the US.

Militarily speaking, America also has a greater comfort with India
than it does with China. India is also not historically as
expansionist and imperialist a power as China, which, even now, is
essentially an occupying power on approximately 60 per cent of its
landmass (with only 40 per cent or so really constituting China's
historic core).

China shows a very strong nationalist and xenophobic streak that is
well beyond anything to be found in India, outside of groups such as
the Rightwing Rashtriya Sevak Sangh (RSS).

India's ability to reach into Central Asia is also of great interest
to American policymakers. Given the strategic importance of this
region, driven by its abundance of natural resources, if India is able
to exert a stabilising, pro-Western orientation there, Americans will
view the actions most favourably. It also helps that India is the
world's largest democracy, even if that may be cold comfort to many
watching China's dictatorship race ahead.

India continues to be very concerned about its perceived status in the
community of nations and in the eyes of the US, the world's sole
current superpower. But the important question is not whether India
will join China in achieving great power status-due to its population
and given even moderate economic growth, such a status is inevitable.

The more important question for Indians should be whether India,
having achieved this status, can show both the US and the rest of the
world that it truly deserves it.

Jeremy Carl is a Visiting Fellow in Resource and Development Economics
at The Energy and Resources Institute in New Delhi

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