Some interesting food for speculation. - Best, Steven
ARTHUR C. CLARKE OFFERS HIS VISION OF THE FUTURE By Raymond Kurzweil & Arthur C. Clarke KurzweilAI.net December 3, 2001 http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0361.html? On Friday, November 30, 2001, Arthur C. Clarke, author of 2001: A Space Odyssey, and inventor of the geosynchronous communications satellite, joined myself and two other panelists by video and phone connection from Sri Lanka to offer his vision of the future. The event took place at Worcester Polytechnic Institute in Worcester, Massachusetts in front of an audience of approximately 500 college and high school students and teachers. The other panelists included Alison Taunton-Rigby, president of Forester Biotech and David Cyganski, WPI professor of electrical and computer engineering and an expert in machine vision. The legendary science fiction author offered the predictions below. My own view is that Clarke's near term predictions involving energy are at least a decade premature. However, many of his predictions involving intelligent machines and nanotechnology are insightful and reflect a keen understanding of the acceleration of technological progress. Arthur C. Clarke's predictions for the next century: 2002 - Clean low-power fuel involving a new energy source, possibly based on cold fusion. 2003 - The automobile industry is given five years to replace fossil fuels. 2004 - First publicly admitted human clone. 2006 - Last coal mine closed. 2009 - A city in a third world country is devastated by an atomic bomb explosion. 2009 - All nuclear weapons are destroyed. 2010 - A new form of space-based energy is adopted. 2010 - Despite protests against "big brother," ubiquitous monitoring eliminates many forms of criminal activity. 2011 - Space flights become available for the public. 2013 - Prince Harry flies in space. 2015 - Complete control of matter at the atomic level is achieved. 2016 - All existing currencies are abolished. A universal currency is adopted based on the "megawatt hour." 2017 - Arthur C. Clarke, on his one hundredth birthday, is a guest on the space orbiter. 2019 - There is a meteorite impact on Earth. 2020 - Artificial Intelligence reaches human levels. There are now two intelligent species on Earth, one biological, and one nonbiological. 2021 - The first human landing on Mars is achieved. There is an unpleasant surprise. 2023 - Dinosaurs are cloned from fragments of DNA. A dinosaur zoo opens in Florida. 2025 - Brain research leads to an understanding of all human senses. Full immersion virtual reality becomes available. The user puts on a metal helmet and is then able to enter "new universes." 2040 - A universal replicator based on nanotechnology is now able to create any object from gourmet meals to diamonds. The only thing that has value is information. 2040 - The concept of human "work" is phased out. 2061 - Hunter gatherer societies are recreated. 2061 - The return of Haley's comet is visited by humans. 2090 - Large scale burning of fossil fuels is resumed to replace carbon dioxide. 2095 - A true "space drive" is developed. The first humans are sent out to nearby star systems already visited by robots. 2100 - History begins. ------------ Steven McFadden, Director Chiron Communications 7 Avenida Vista Grande #195 Santa Fe, NM 87508 USA http://www.chiron-communications.com