Friends, Nepal burning is always to be a cause of concern to India. With a porous border and with intricate web of relationships at social' cultural and familial basis other than the geo-political realities, the development in Nepal are something which we just can't take lightly. The events till now include the attempt made by the ex-PM Prachanda to sack the Army Chief, the chief's refusal to obey the orders, the President's objections to sign the order on legal grounds culminating in Prachanda's resignation from the post. after this, the situation in Nepal is quite uncertain. Here I would attempt to present the various possible scenario and their subsequent repercussions- 1. Maoists (238 members in Constituent assembly out of a total of 601 and hence needing 301 members) joins hands with some of the smaller parties to form the government- not an easy option because it does not seem likely that Madhesi People's Right Forum (53 members) and Terai Madesh democratic party (21 members) will go along with Maoists, considering the bitter past they had and also because of the radically opposite support base they enjoy. So is the case with Sadbhavana Party (9 members) another Madhesi group. This leaves only 60 seats with other smaller groups to go along with Maoists and this does not seem sufficient for the 301 mark. 2. Nepali Congress, the UML and the above three small parties join hands. This makes their number 303 (with 112 members of Nepali Congress and 108 from UML) which is sufficient enough to cross the 301 mark. This is quite feasible also. But here the problem will be the Maoists who would naturally take it as a letdown and might revert back to the same turbulent days, plunging Nepal to chaos. Moreover, there is also the issue of the PMship where both NC and UML might claim their stakes 3. No consensus or coalition is formed, leaving the President to rule, with the aid of the Military. This would be more damaging because it would bring the military rule with the political partiers on the streets and the Maoists back to their violent ways. 4. Fourthly the military might attempt a coup in the present situation, with an overconfident and buoyant Chief at its head. This is not improbable and would harm the country in no less measures 5. Finally, there is also a chance of the King returning back, taking this opportunity to get back to his saddle. As we can easily see, the situation in Nepal is grim. Theoretically, the second option seems to be the best. But will it happen successfully? Dr Nutan Thakur Editor Nutan Satta Pravah Lucknow # 94155-34525
