On 9/19/2016 10:56 AM, Peter Todd wrote: > I should state that assumption more clearly.
Glad to get you thinking, and I need to change my suggestion. The catch-up formula is not applicable because it doesn't limit how long the dishonest miners have to catch up. Instead you want the probability that the honest miners can build a chain N blocks long before the dishonest miners do the same, which is CDF[Erlang(N, q) - Erlang(N, 1 - q), 0] I have some apparatus for doing this numerically without simulation if you're interested.
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