Mining is a lottery.

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> On Mar 22, 2020, at 07:10, LORD HIS EXCELLENCY JAMES HRMH via bitcoin-dev 
> <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
> 
> 
> There seems to be the real possibility that miners are simply trying to 
> optimise mining profit by limiting the average hash rate during the 
> retargeting, saving some electricity but poorly considering the overall 
> situation where they give opportunity to other miners probably raising the 
> hashrate for the next period. It is far more profitable for the ecosystem 
> considering the whole to hold a lottery for minig as has been discussed 
> elsewhere some time ago.
> 
> Regards,
> LORD HIS EXCELLENCY JAMES HRMH
> 
> 
> From: bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-dev-boun...@lists.linuxfoundation.org> on behalf 
> of David A. Harding via bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
> Sent: Sunday, 22 March 2020 6:54 PM
> To: Dave Scotese <dscot...@litmocracy.com>; Bitcoin Protocol Discussion 
> <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
> Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Block solving slowdown question/poll
>  
> On Sat, Mar 21, 2020 at 11:40:24AM -0700, Dave Scotese via bitcoin-dev wrote:
> > [Imagine] we also see mining power dropping off at a rate that
> > suggests the few days [until retarget] might become a few weeks, and
> > then, possibly, a few months or even the unthinkable, a few eons.  I'm
> > curious to know if anyone has ideas on how this might be handled
> 
> There are only two practical solutions I'm aware of:
> 
> 1. Do nothing
> 2. Hard fork a difficulty reduction
> 
> If bitcoins retain even a small fraction of their value compared to the
> previous retarget period and if most mining equipment is still available
> for operation, then doing nothing is probably the best choice---as block
> space becomes scarcer, transaction feerates will increase and miners
> will be incentivized to increase their block production rate.
> 
> If the bitcoin price has plummeted more than, say, 99% in two weeks
> with no hope of short-term recovery or if a large fraction of mining
> equipment has become unusable (again, say, 99% in two weeks with no
> hope of short-term recovery), then it's probably worth Bitcoin users
> discussing a hard fork to reduce difficulty to a currently sustainable
> level.
> 
> -Dave
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