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First Read: The day in politics by NBC News for NBC News
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FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** No Change To The Map: Although we saw the needle move in Obama's direction
after last week's events -- including McCain's own stumbles -- the newest NBC
electoral map this week is essentially unchanged. Obama holds a slight 233-227
lead over McCain. Our only change was moving New Jersey from Likely Obama to
Lean Obama after various polls showed him with a single-digit lead there.
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT (157 electoral
votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, NJ, NM OR, PA, WA (76 votes)
Toss-up: CO, MI, NV, NH, OH, VA, WI (78 votes)
Lean McCain: FL, IN, MO, MT, NC (67 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN,
TX, UT, WV, WY (160 votes)
*** Three States To Watch: But we have our eyes on three "Lean" states that we
could move back to the Toss-up column. The first is Pennsylvania, where a new
TODAY Show/NBC/Mason-Dixon poll shows Obama with a two-point advantage,
46%-44%. And the other two are Florida and North Carolina, where polls show
Obama closing in on McCain. For now, because all three states show the same
leader in polls that we trust, we're leaving them in their lean status. But do
note that many a Democrat believes North Carolina is a state where the
electorate really may have changed. It's a fascinating state this cycle,
actually -- not a single white male Democrat is in the top three races on the
state's ballot.
*** Bailing Out The Bailout: Is this bailout going to make it through? It
seemed like a slam-dunk Friday, but there are enough folks on both sides who
seem intent on making sure this bill is debated somewhat. Will Congress roll
over like they did for the Patriot Act and for Homeland Security? And what
about Obama and McCain -- will they come back to DC to vote on the bailout and
to introduce their own reforms?
*** Race Affecting The Race: Not too long ago, we implored Democrats and the
media against saying that an Obama loss would reflect poorly on America --
i.e., the only reason he could lose in this political environment is because of
the color of his skin. Yet according to a new AP-Yahoo poll, race is certainly
out there. The poll found that one-third of white Democrats harbor negative
feelings about blacks, and it also noted this: "Statistical models derived from
the poll suggest that Obama's support would be as much as 6 percentage points
higher if there were no white racial prejudice." "Look, if you're asking me are
there some people who might not vote for me because of my race? Of course,"
Obama told John Harwood of CNBC and the New York Times. "Are there some who
might vote for me because of my race? You bet. I think ultimately, though, the
question's going to be decided by a guy or a woman who is working hard every
day trying to save enough to send their kid to college, trying to pay the
bills."
First Read with NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd, every weekday on
MSNBC-TV at 9 a.m. ET.
For more: The latest edition of First Read is available now at
http://www.FirstRead.MSNBC.com !
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