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First Read: The day in politics by NBC News for NBC News
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FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** Nine Days Later: Nine days after the public got a true sense of the urgency
of this financial crisis, President Bush finally addressed the American people
last night -- thanks mostly to the fact that the public (through Congress) was
sending the message to the Administration and Hank Paulson that it didn't like
this plan and didn't understand it. Last night's speech was a sobering one. It
was the first time ever in Bush's presidency when he delivered bad economic
news. It's not in his nature to talk down the economy, which is what made last
night's speech so historic (and yet potentially ineffective). Will the public
believe Bush's pleas on this? Of course, it's possible the audience for last
night's speech wasn't the American people as much as it was the House and
Senate Republican caucuses. Bush needed to actively engage his fellow party
members in explaining why he -- himself a free marketer -- believes this to be
the only answer. The one thing missing last night in his speech: the emphasis
to the American people that this was a shared problem and the solution wasn't
just money but potentially changing our own lifestyles.
*** McCain's Only Choice: As for McCain's campaign suspension and proposal to
postpone the debate until this bailout plan is negotiated and passed, he had no
choice but to do this. Yes, he's going to get criticized for making what may
look like a VERY political decision. Obama partisans are going to mock him for
wanting to duck a debate and wanting to stop his falling poll numbers in the
face of what's been 10 bad days for his campaign. But McCain is the head of a
Republican Party that is already viewed negatively by the American people. What
price would McCain pay if members of his own party ended up being responsible
for killing this bailout plan? While McCain likes to say he's never been
awarded Mr. Congeniality in his dealings on Capitol Hill, there are two
Republican caucuses whose future statuses as strong or weak minority parties
depend on a strong McCain-Palin showing in November. Could McCain afford
carrying the baggage of being the head of the party that 1) was led by Bush and
2) turned its back on a financial bailout plan that if not enacted could do
things like bring about a recession even more rapidly?
*** More Guerilla Warfare: McCain's campaign has been remarkable in its ability
to -- in the words of NBCs Tom Brokaw -- engage in guerilla political tactics,
which allow him to win political battles that on paper he shouldn't be winning.
And this debate gambit is the latest example of this (following his town hall
challenge the day after Obama clinched the Dem nomination, and even his pick of
Sarah Palin). But while McCain has proven adept at winning these battles, can
he ultimately win the war? By the way, look for McCain today to declare victory
with the Bush decision to bring together McCain and Obama at the White House
and then agree to let the debates go on as planned. This does seem to be a game
of political chicken. Obama so far has indicated he's not going to blink.
Neither has the Commission. And neither has the University of Mississippi. Will
McCain?
*** McCain's Economic And Palin Problems: Here's a political reason why McCain
called to postpone the debate and essentially ask for a timeout in the
campaign: The latest NBC/WSJ poll -- which has Obama leading overall by just
two points, 48%-46% (Obama's up five among very high interest voters) -- shows
Obama with a 12-point advantage over McCain in handling the economy. And a Los
Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll -- which also has Obama up two among registered
voters and four among likelies -- finds Obama with a 14-point edge on the
economy. In addition, Palin, who two weeks ago was seen as a shot in the arm
for McCain, has now potentially turned into a liability. Per the NBC/WSJ poll,
49% say she's unqualified to be president if the need arises, versus just 40%
who say she's qualified. (By comparison, 64% say Biden is qualified.) NBC/WSJ
co-pollster Peter Hart (D) says that when you add that to concerns about
McCain's age (44% say they worry about McCain being able to serve for four
years), that becomes a "lethal" problem for the McCain campaign. We've
regularly asked a question in our poll about who is the riskier choice for
president, Obama or McCain. Not surprisingly Obama has been viewed as the
riskier choice by about 10-15 points. Has McCain now inserted his own risk into
the campaign when you combine age and Palin's experience? By the way, one in
four McCain-Palin voters believe she does not have the experience to be
president.
*** Obama's Indie Problem: The NBC/WSJ poll, however, also shows that Obama has
an indie problem. McCain leads him here by 14 points, up six from earlier this
month. Moreover, Obama has just a 39%-35% fav/unfav among independents, which
is down considerably from his 48%-36% overall favorability score. And while
voters say they identify with Obama's values and background by a 50%-44%
margin, those numbers are essentially reversed among independents. Hart says
that if Obama ends up losing the presidential election, you can attribute it to
the indie problem -- particularly the values and background question. Just to
let you know that these independents in the poll don't lean Republican, they
prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress by 14 points (43%-29%).
*** McCain's Need For Speed: McCain was always seen as having a good chance at
appealing to indies, and with anger and frustration at the government and other
institutions at an all-time high, it's possible McCain's benefiting from his
"I'm mad as hell" attitude about government. CW says the more optimistic
candidate usually wins election, but with a country tired of hearing all of the
optimistic talk they got about the economy from the Bush Administration over
the last four years, it may be they are looking for not just a straight-talking
candidate, but one who channels their frustration. McCain's best political
moments in his career are when he shows indignation. As Peggy Noonan said today
on "Morning Joe," McCain's got two speeds, 0 and 60. And while calm, cool,
collected isn't McCain, like a good fighter pilot, McCain has the need for
speed and for needing to always be dealing with a crisis. Lucky for him, there
appear to be a lot of crises ahead for the next president.
*** Versus Obama's Cool: That said, don't miss yet ANOTHER very important
number in the NBC/WSJ poll: A majority of voters agree that Obama could handle
a military crisis well as president. Could it be his calm, cool demeanor that's
been on display these last 10 days on the economy has helped on the leadership
front overall when compared to McCain? Something to watch for in future polls.
The New York Times' Gail Collins put it well this morning: "This election is
turning into a Goldilocks story. One candidate's too hot, and one's too cool.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/25/opinion/25collins.html?ref=opinion
*** Tied in Michigan: The latest TODAY Show/NBC/Mason-Dixon poll shows McCain
and Obama tied at 46% each in the battleground state of Michigan. Per
Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker, McCain is leading in the traditionally GOP
regions of Western and Northern Michigan -- but is also holding his own in the
Detroit suburbs (Oakland County, Macomb County, and western Wayne County),
which is cutting into Obama's margin in the Detroit Metro region. To win, Obama
needs to run up a big margin in the Detroit Metro area, which means performing
well in those suburbs. That said, a new CNN/Time poll has Obama up by five in
Michigan among registered voters (51%-44%), and a new EPIC/MRA has Obama up 10
(48%-38%).
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/articles/2008/09/24/polls_2_mich_polls_give_obama_edge_over_mccain/
*** On The Trail: McCain speaks at the Clinton Global Initiative in New York,
then travels to Washington to meet with President Bush. Obama remains in
Florida for debate prep, but addresses the Clinton Global Initiative via
satellite and then heads to DC to meet with Bush and congressional leaders.
Palin attends the Clinton Global Initiative. And Biden is in Pennsylvania,
stumping in Greensburg and Wilkes-Barre.
Countdown to the first presidential debate: 1 day
Countdown to the vice presidential debate: 9 days
Countdown to the second presidential debate 12 days
Countdown to the third presidential debate: 20 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 40 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 117 days
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MCCAIN vs. OBAMA: The debate gamble
The Washington Post's Dan Balz says McCain's decision to suspend his campaign
and seek to postpone Friday's debate "may be among the biggest of his political
life. The Republican presidential nominee is hoping that his abrupt decision .
will be seen as the kind of country-first, bipartisan leadership he believes
Americans want. What he risks, if things don't go as he hopes, is a judgment by
voters that his move was a reckless act by an impetuous and struggling
politician that hardened partisan lines in Washington at just the wrong moment
and complicated efforts to deal with the biggest financial crisis in more than
half a century."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/24/AR2008092403950.html?hpid=topnews
The New York Times writes that McCain's "decision seeking to postpone the first
debate was yet another unpredictable, daring step taken by his campaign over
the last month: its selection of Gov. Sarah Palin as a vice-presidential
candidate shook up the race in late August, and days later the campaign
stripped down the first day of the Republican National Convention because of
the threat of Hurricane Gustav. In the midst of the confusion, officials with
the Commission on Presidential Debates said that they were moving forward with
the debate and that talks with the McCain campaign throughout the day had not
persuaded them on Mr. McCain's position. 'We believe the public will be well
served by having all of the debates go forward as scheduled,' the commission
said."
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/25/us/politics/25campaign.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
The Boston Globe calls McCain's move in asking for the debate to be delayed "a
high-wire political gambit." "McCain's move was another extraordinary twist in
a race full of extraordinary twists. It reflects not only the deep concerns of
Republican and Democratic leaders about the grave state of the economy, but
also the shifting dynamics in a presidential contest that polls suggest has
swung in Obama's favor. Voters' focus on the Wall Street crisis and the economy
-- long an advantage for Obama -- has helped give him an edge this week
nationally and in key battleground states."
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/articles/2008/09/25/mccain_pauses_campaign/
The Los Angeles Times: "McCain's decision to up the ante was an audacious
gambit to show leadership in a time of crisis. It drew the same kind of
attention McCain received when he picked Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running
mate and, earlier, when he retooled himself as an ally of oil drilling as gas
prices soared."
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-campaign25-2008sep25,0,766973.story?page=1
The LA Times also offers a timeline of the Obama/McCain phone tag. When Obama
called his opponent at 8:30 am yesterday, "McCain was meeting with economic
advisors, including former EBay Chief Executive Meg Whitman and former
Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Obama left a message with his phone number.
Later in the morning, Obama spent several hours in debate preparation at his
hotel in Clearwater -- keeping a phone with him in case his opponent called.
At 2:30 p.m., as Obama's motorcade left a rally near Clearwater, McCain
returned the call, and the two spoke for five minutes (according to Obama
aides) or 10 minutes (according to McCain aides)."
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-campaign25-2008sep25,0,766973.story?page=1
Per Politico, "A McCain aide [said] that the campaign is proposing to the
Presidential Debate Commission and the Obama camp that if there's no bailout
deal by Friday, the first presidential debate should take the place of the vice
presidential debate, currently scheduled for October 2 in St. Louis. Under this
scenario, the vice presidential debate would be rescheduled for a date yet to
be determined, and take place in Oxford, Miss., where the first presidential
debate is currently slated to be held."
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13853.html
The Boston Globe's editorial board calls it a "stunt." "[A]ltering the debate
schedule would hardly serve voters. If anything, debates are most valuable at
times of national crisis, because voters need to hear candidates highlight
their policy differences. And McCain's initial response to the mess -- his odd
claim that the fundamentals of the economy are strong -- made him look out of
touch. But if he now thinks the problem can be tidied up during a short break
from the campaign trail, he needs some new economic advisers. McCain has
already brought discredit upon his campaign by shielding running mate Sarah
Palin from hostile questions. This impulsive new stunt makes him appear
unsteady and underprepared, too. America can work through a financial crisis
and handle a campaign at the same time. In politics as on Broadway, the show
must go on."
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/articles/2008/09/24/mccains_debate_stunt/
The New York Daily News on McCain's move: "Bold. or Bonkers?"
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2008/09/24/2008-09-24_john_mccains_decision_to_suspend_his_cam.html
A new LA Times/Bloomberg poll shows Obama ahead of McCain 49%-45% nationally
among likely voters. That advantage shrinks to 46-44 among registered voters,
giving the Illinois senator a lead comparable to the paper's last poll in
August. The economy looms large, with voters preferring Obama on economic
issues by a rate of 46% to 32%. He also has a 15-point advantage for voters
evaluating his ability to handle rising gas prices, and a 30-point lead on
healthcare. But McCain has gained major ground among independents, swinging
from an 11-point deficit among the group in August to a 15-point lead in the
latest poll.
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll25-2008sep25,0,4911734.story?page=1
MoveOn has a new TV hitting McCain on the economy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ordae-NBf7c
THE ECONOMY: Bush's primetime address
The Boston Globe: "While Bush's remarks were addressed to the American people,
his immediate target was 435 US representatives and 100 senators, including
many members of his own party who have responded with skepticism or outright
anger to his call for what many have called a massive bailout of Wall Street."
More: "A vote could come within days. Bush, a staunch believer in free markets,
acknowledged that he was going against his own philosophy in urging a massive
government intervention in the financial industry. But he said the situation
had grown so dire, and the banking regulations so outdated, that he had no
choice."
http://www.boston.com/business/markets/articles/2008/09/25/bush_urges_bailout_unity/
The New York Times: "Mr. Bush's televised address, and his extraordinary offer
to bring together Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee,
and Senator John McCain, the Republican, just weeks before the election
underscored a growing sense of urgency on the part of the administration that
Congress must act to avert an economic collapse. It was the first time in Mr.
Bush's presidency that he delivered a prime-time speech devoted exclusively to
the economy. It came at a time when deep public unease about shaky financial
markets and the demise of Wall Street icons such as Lehman Brothers has been
coupled with skepticism and anger directed at a government bailout that could
become the most expensive in American history."
More: "Mr. Bush used his speech to signal that he was willing to address
lawmakers' concerns, including fears that tax dollars will be used to pay Wall
Street executives and that the plan would put too much authority in the hands
of the Treasury secretary without sufficient oversight. 'Any rescue plan should
also be designed to ensure that taxpayers are protected,' Mr. Bush said. 'It
should welcome the participation of financial institutions, large and small. It
should make certain that failed executives do not receive a windfall from your
tax dollars. It should establish a bipartisan board to oversee the plan's
implementation. And it should be enacted as soon as possible.'"
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/25/business/economy/25bush.html?hp
Obama spokesman Bill Burton issued this statement. "While Sen. Obama believed
that the Administration's initial proposal was flawed and unacceptable to the
American taxpayer, he was heartened tonight that the President seemed to be
moving in the direction of the principles that Sen. Obama outlined over the
last week, including limits on CEO pay, independent oversight, and taxpayer
protection. He was also encouraged that the President suggested strengthening
an outdated regulatory structure that led to this crisis, something that
Senator Obama specifically proposed last March."
Unless we missed it, we didn't see a statement from McCain or his campaign
regarding Bush's speech.
Per the Los Angeles Times, "Democrats had been waiting for Bush to speak out
more prominently for the bailout plan and to demand that GOP lawmakers support
it. They have argued that they should not have to take the political risk of
passing the wildly unpopular measure without Republicans joining in, especially
since they blame lax oversight by the administration and GOP advocacy of
deregulation for causing the crisis."
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-bailout25-2008sep25,0,3576826.story?page=1
BATTLEGROUND: Obama breaking open?
New numbers from CNN/Time/Opinion Research show Obama up 51% to 45% among
registered voters in Colorado, up from a 5-point deficit for the Illinois
senator last month. The Democratic nominee bests McCain in Michigan by 51% to
44% percent among registered voters. And in Pennsylvania, he jumped to a nine
point lead, 52% to McCain's 43%.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/24/polls-in-battleground-states-show-obama-gaining-ground/
With Obama posting widened leads in notable battleground states, Politico's
Mike Allen writes that "State by state, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill). is showing
signs of breaking open a presidential race that looked deadlocked through much
of September. This is the first time that one of the candidates has dominated
state polls in the most closely contested
battlegrounds."http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13876.html
COLORADO: Independent groups are shoveling money into Colorado's contested
Senate race at an unprecedented rate. "Leave out the party committee spending,
and independent groups allied to the GOP have spent $10.4 million in Colorado,
while just $2.6 million in New Hampshire and $2.4 million in Minnesota, the two
runners-up, data provided by Democratic media buyers show. (Attack groups
supporting Democrats, by comparison, have spent $3.4 million in Colorado, $1.6
million in Minnesota, and $1.2 million in New Hampshire.)"
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_10550738
The Rocky Mountain News reports on yet another voter registration controversy:
"Allegations of fraudulent voter registrations in El Paso County have prompted
the state Republican Party to begin looking into nearly 500 statewide addresses
where 10 or more people have registered. Party volunteers have started checking
the list of residences, homeless shelters, nursing homes, rehab centers and
college dormitories to confirm registrations are legitimate."
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/sep/25/colorado-gop-fearing-deception-checks-addresses/
FLORIDA: Another registration-is-overwhelming-elections-boards story out of
Florida. The state elections division received 25,000 new registrations in one
day this week.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/state/orl-voter2508sep25,0,6238727.story
IOWA: Absentee voting begins today in the Hawkeye State. "The general election
turnout could reach between 76 percent and 80 percent of Iowa's 2.1 million
registered voters, [Secretary of State Michael] Mauro predicted. The record
turnout in Iowa was 80.5 percent in 1992 when Bill Clinton defeated George H.W.
Bush and Ross Perot."
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080925/NEWS10/809250389/1007/NEWS05
MICHIGAN: Numbers from a new Michigan poll from Selzer & Co.via the Detroit
Free Press: "As Congress wrangles over an expensive Wall Street bailout, 76% of
likely Michigan voters say the U.S. economy already is in either a recession or
a depression -- including one in four who say the nation is in a depression."
More: "Michigan voters are split on whether the government should help the
nation's financial institutions, on the heels of the bankruptcy of investment
bank Lehman Brothers. Of those surveyed, 43% said the government needs to step
in, while 45% said a bailout would only encourage the greed and risk-taking
that led to the financial meltdown."
http://freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080925/NEWS06/809250398
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Gov. Bill Richardson stumped for Obama in the Granite State
earlier this week. The New Mexico governor said that while McCain used to be a
maverick, "to get the Republican nomination, he's compromised. He's lost his
'maverickness.'"
http://unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=John+DiStaso%27s+Granite+Status%3a+Who%27s+more+muddy%3f&articleId=5aa673a0-021f-486e-9810-5dde35b6faae
Your fun ballot fact of the day: "For the first time in 110 years, New
Hampshire voters will not be able to make one mark on the ballot to vote a
straight ticket for one party or the other."
http://unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=Voter+registration+drive+takes+to+streets&articleId=3605106b-62f3-44ff-a0fb-90a3b91b6f74
OHIO: Calls are pouring into Senator Sherrod Brown's office from constituents
outraged about the bailout plan.
http://www.dispatchpolitics.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/09/25/copy/antibailout.ART_ART_09-25-08_A1_NFBE3DJ.html?adsec=politics&sid=101
MCCAIN: Davis story isn't going away
"One former Fannie Mae executive downplayed the McCain connection in the
decision to retain Davis' firm. "Rick's broader experience as a GOP operative
is what drew people to hire him," said William R. Maloni, Fannie Mae's former
chief lobbyist and a Democrat. McCain wasn't on the banking committee and
wasn't particularly influential on such issues, he noted. "The McCain
relationship was icing on the cake.""
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-davis25-2008sep25,0,1801675.story
PALIN: Who's the boss?
The AP's headline: "Who's running Alaska with Palin on stump?" Apparently, the
McCain campaign. "The McCain campaign is speaking for the Alaska state
government these days, especially when it wants to ensure that nothing
embarrassing about Gov. Sarah Palin emerges before Election Day. Even Palin's
lieutenant governor, Sean Parnell, said keeping in touch has been difficult.
And since hackers broke into Palin's Yahoo e-mail account last week, he said,
it has dropped off entirely. In Palin's absence, messages left with the
governor's office are usually returned by the McCain campaign. A recent request
for information was answered by a governor's spokesman with a sad smile and a
shake of the head. Even a message left on the cell phone of a hometown friend
of Palin was returned by a McCain campaign staffer."
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/articles/2008/09/25/whos_running_alaska_with_palin_on_stump/
"A grainy YouTube video surfaced Wednesday showing Sarah Palin being blessed in
her hometown church three years ago by a Kenyan pastor who prayed for her
protection from 'witchcraft' as she prepared to seek higher office. The video
shows Palin standing before Bishop Thomas Muthee in the pulpit of the Wasilla
Assembly of God church, holding her hands open as he asked Jesus Christ to keep
her safe from 'every form of witchcraft.' 'Come on, talk to God about this
woman. We declare, save her from Satan,' Muthee said as two attendants placed
their hands on Palin's shoulders. 'Make her way my God. Bring finances her way
even for the campaign in the name of Jesus. ... Use her to turn this nation the
other way around.'"
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/articles/2008/09/25/palin_once_blessed_to_be_free_from_witchcraft/
"Palin said Wednesday that the United States could be headed for another Great
Depression if Congress doesn't act on the financial crisis. Palin made the
comment in an interview with 'CBS Evening News' anchor Katie Couric while
visiting New York to meet foreign leaders for the first time in her political
career. As Palin sought to establish her credentials in world affairs, first
lady Laura Bush said Palin lacked sufficient foreign policy experience but was
'a quick study.' Recent surveys have shown that Palin's popularity, while still
strong, has begun to fade."
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/articles/2008/09/25/palin_us_could_face_another_great_depression/
Don't miss this exchange between Couric and Palin.
COURIC: You've said, quote, "John McCain will reform the way Wall Street does
business." Other than supporting stricter regulations of Fannie Mae and Freddie
Mac two years ago, can you give us any more example of his leading the charge
for more oversight?
PALIN: I think that the example that you just cited, with his warnings two
years ago about Fannie and Freddie -- that, that's paramount. That's more than
a heck of a lot of other senators and representatives did for us.
COURIC: But he's been in Congress for 26 years. He's been chairman of the
powerful Commerce Committee. And he has almost always sided with less
regulation, not more.
PALIN: He's also known as the maverick though. Taking shots from his own party,
and certainly taking shots from the other party. Trying to get people to
understand what he's been talking about--the need to reform government.
COURIC: I'm just going to ask you one more time, not to belabor the point.
Specific examples in his 26 years of pushing for more regulation?
PALIN: I'll try to find you some and I'll bring them to you.
Awkwwward. " 'Now I know why the whole of America is crazy about you,' gushed
President Asif Ali Zardari, 53. He called her 'gorgeous.' . A handler from
Zardari's entourage then told the two politicians to keep shaking hands for the
cameras. 'If he's insisting, I might hug,' Zardari quipped. Palin again smiled
politely."
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2008/09/24/2008-09-24_gorgeous_sarah_palin_wows_em.html
First Read with NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd, every weekday on
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