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First Read: The day in politics by NBC News for NBC News
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FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** Two Weeks Out: There are no significant changes to this week's NBC
electoral map. Obama continues to hold a 264-163 lead over McCain, which is
unchanged from last week. The slight changes: We moved Georgia, North Dakota,
South Dakota and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District from Likely McCain to
Lean McCain. Also, we almost moved McCain's home state of Arizona to the Lean
column; the state would have been a battleground had McCain not been on the
ticket. And keep an eye on South Carolina - yes, South Carolina. The historic
African-American turnout appears to be happening and could make it a
single-digit race there. In sum, the political winds are still at Obama's back.
As for the Toss-up states and any that are teetering toward Obama: Colorado,
Florida, and Virginia all seem to tilting the Democrat's way, but we haven't
moved then yet because all three states have histories of Republican candidates
over-performing polls. Unlike other maps, ours is not poll-driven. Polls are
only a part of how we make our decisions on our map.
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (175
electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, PA, WI (89 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, MO, NV, NC, OH, VA (111 votes)
Lean McCain: GA, MT, NE 02, ND, SD, WV (30 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE (the rest of the state),
OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY (133 votes)
*** More On The Battleground: Over the weekend, new NBC/Mason-Dixon polls
showed Obama leading in Wisconsin (51%-39%), McCain ahead in West Virginia
(47%-41%), and the two essentially tied in Ohio (McCain 46%, Obama 45%). That
Obama's Wisconsin lead is bigger than McCain's West Virginia edge is striking.
Think about it: Who would have guessed that at this point in time in the
campaign, Obama would have a better shot at winning West Virginia than McCain
does in Wisconsin. . Meanwhile, here are the candidates' schedules for the next
few days: McCain is in Missouri today and Pennsylvania tomorrow; Obama is in
Florida today and tomorrow, and in Virginia on Wednesday; Biden hops on a bus
tour through Colorado on Tuesday and Wednesday; and Palin campaigns in Colorado
today and Nevada tomorrow.
*** Colin's Blow: Not only did Colin Powell endorse Obama yesterday on Meet the
Press; he also fired the first big shot in the post-election fight for the
heart and soul of the Republican Party. "I have some concerns about the
direction that the party has taken in recent years," he said. "It has moved
more to the right than I would like to see it, but that's a choice the party
makes." Win or lose in November, the GOP is going to go through an identity
crisis. And especially if McCain loses, it's going to be one ugly period in the
history of the Republican Party. It took the GOP some 16 years to truly find
its soul post-Goldwater, the last Arizona senator to lead the Republican
ticket. By the way, Powell's rejection of Palin -- "I don't believe she's
ready to be president of the United States, which is the job of the vice
president" -- will probably lead to more anti-Palin commentary from the right.
And a third debate Powell started (which has been incredibly underreported) was
his defense of being Muslim in America. He did something that Obama has
hesitated to do when attacked for being a Muslim: defended the religion. As for
the impact of Powell on voters, it's probably tough to measure. Voters usually
don't believe they are ever moved by endorsements but it can reassure soft
supporters. Moreover, it's the impact Powell will have on the news cycle with
the opinion intelligentsia that should Obama the most over the next few days.
First Read with NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd, every weekday on
MSNBC-TV at 9 a.m. ET.
For more: The latest edition of First Read is available now at
http://www.FirstRead.MSNBC.com !
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