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First Read: The day in politics by NBC News for NBC News
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FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** Not Over 'Til It's Over: Down in the polls with just 11 days left, the
McCain campaign has used two of the biggest CW table-setters out there -- the
New York Times' Adam Nagourney and the Washington Post's Dan Balz -- to argue
that this race isn't over just yet. Per Nagourney's piece, "'The McCain
campaign is roughly in the position where Vice President Gore was running
against President Bush one week before the election of 2000,' said Steve
Schmidt, Mr. McCain's chief strategist. 'We have ground to make up, but we
believe we can make it up.'" And writes Balz, "McCain's advisers acknowledge
that his way back is difficult, but they maintain that there is a way. It
requires a combination of smart campaigning, traction for his arguments and
what the McCain team hopes will be fears among the electorate at the prospect
of a Democrat in the White House with expanded Democratic majorities in
Congress." But it's also clear that Pennsylvania has become the campaign's
do-or-die state. As one McCain official candidly tells the Politico,
"We have a real chance in Pennsylvania. We are in trouble in Colorado, Nevada
and Virginia. We have lost Iowa and New Mexico. We are OK in Missouri, Ohio and
Florida. Our voter intensity is good and we can match their buy dollar for
dollar starting today till the election. It's a long shot but it's worth
fighting for." The scary thing for the McCain campaign is that they could win
Pennsylvania, but if they lose Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia, they lose in the
Electoral College, 270-268. That's just stunning. The McCain campaign could win
Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania -- and still lose. This is how Obama's money and
organizational advantage has made such a difference: They've rewritten the
battleground just as they promised.
*** $12 Million Left? But the McCain camp is going to have to flip Pennsylvania
-- and hold on to the other Bush states -- with limited funds. The AP got its
hands on campaign-finance reports for the first two weeks of October showing
that McCain, as of October 15, had $25 million left of his $84.1 million in
public funds. "At McCain's spending rate of $1.5 million a day, the Arizona
senator likely has only $12 million to spend in the next 11 days before the
Nov. 4 election." Yet that amount is bolstered when you add the Republican
National Committee's deep wallets. By comparison, the AP notes that Obama spent
more than $105 million (!!!) during the first two weeks of October, has $66
million cash on hand, and had raised about $36 million over those two weeks
(about half of the pace of his September haul).
*** The Blame Game: But it's not just diminishing resources and a shrinking map
the McCain camp has to contend with. There's also the blame game. This is what
creates an unhealthy atmosphere inside the campaign. Folks are looking over
their shoulders, and this is where the loyalists get separated from the
mercenaries. The true mettle of a political strategist/consultant gets tested
now when things look as dark as they do right now for McCain.
First Read with NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd, every weekday on
MSNBC-TV at 9 a.m. ET.
For more: The latest edition of First Read is available now at
http://www.FirstRead.MSNBC.com !
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