05/06/2008 15:46 | Goal.com
Calcio Debate: Three Big Team Losses For Italy In 78 Years
If Italy are to win Euro 2008 they will have to do it the hard way after
being drawn in the ‘Group of Death’. Carlo Garganese investigates
Italy’s record against the big teams…
At Euro 2004 Italy exited the tournament at the group stages despite
being unbeaten and obtaining five points. The Azzurri finished level on
points with both Denmark and Sweden, but were controversially eliminated
due to having an inferior head-to-head record to the Nordic neighbours.
Many people believe that with Holland and France in the Azzurri’s group,
that an identical scenario could arise at Euro 2008. In light of this it
is quite clear that Italy will have to beat either Holland or France if
they are to guarantee (assuming Romania are overcome) progression into
the knockout stages.
So what is Italy’s record against the big teams in major international
tournaments?
First of all it is important to note that over the years there will
always be golden periods for different sides, but for the sake of
argument let’s accept that the footballing superpowers are Brazil,
Argentina, Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Holland, and England.
Italy’s record against these teams over the years is, at first glance,
pretty sensational. Since the first World Cup 78 years ago, Italy have
only lost three games in major international tournaments DURING 90
MINUTES. These were the 4-1 defeat to Brazil in 1970, the 2-1 loss to
Holland in 1978 and the 2-0 second round exit to France at Mexico ’86.
In a total of 28 games against the big nations, during normal time,
Italy have won nine, drawn 16 and lost three. They have not lost to a
big nation for 22 years. Argentina, Brazil and France left them
heartbroken on penalties in successive World Cups in the 90s, while
David Trezeguet’s golden goal did the damage in the final of Euro 2000.
Furthermore, despite Italy’s rather shaky European Championships
history, they have never lost a game in the competition to a big team
during regulation time. This is all pretty impressive stuff you would
say, and enough to leave Azzurri fans feeling pretty confident going
into a Euros that could also see Roberto Donadoni’s men play Spain in
the quarters, France again in the semis, before Germany in the final.
However, as stated above, it is highly likely that Italy will have to
win at least one of their group games against Holland or France in order
to qualify for the last eight. Two draws may not be good enough. Recent
history though tells us that two points from these games is very possible.
The Azzurri’s last seven matches against big teams in major tournaments
have all ended in a tie after 90 minutes, with five of these finishing
goalless. These include the World Cup final against Brazil in 1994, the
Germany group game at Euro ’96, the penalty loss to France in ’98, the
Euro 2000 epics against Holland and France, as well as the matches
against Germany and Les Bleus two years ago.
The last time Italy beat a top team in 90 minutes was the quarter final
of USA ’94, when Roberto Baggio worked his magic to hit an 89th minute
winner against Spain. Indeed discounting the rather meaningless 2-1
third and fourth playoff win against England at Italia ’90, the Azzurri
have only beaten a top side twice in regulation time in the last 25
years, the other also being against Spain at Euro ’88. Thus 10 of
Italy’s last 14 matches have ended level.
To continue the negative trend, Italy have not beaten France in any
competition, friendlies included, for 30 years, with four major cup
matches being contested during this time. As for Holland, Italy have
never triumphed over them in a World Cup or Euros, although they have
only met twice. The first was in Argentina ‘78, when the Dutch, thanks
to some astonishing long-range shooting, won 2-1. The other of course
was at Euro 2000, which Italy won on penalties thanks to the heroics of
Francesco Toldo.
Thus there are two ways to view Italy’s past record against the football
superpowers. Three defeats in 78 years should leave you supremely
confident going into Euro 2008. However the fact that Italy have drawn
so many of these recent games, especially when it is clear they will
have to beat either Holland or France, is a cause for concern.
There is in fact a third way of analysing the situation, and that is to
say that statistics mean nothing in football, in which case you will
have probably wasted five minutes of your life reading this article!
What are your views on this topic? What do you think about Italy’s
record against the big teams? Can Italy end this trend of draws and beat
Holland and/or France? Should we read too much into these statistics.
Goal.com wants to know what YOU think.
Carlo Garganese (idea: Danilo Pochini)
--
Cavaliere
AC Milan atau tidak sama sekal!
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