--- "John D. Giorgis" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > If you want to read the last 3/4 of the article that > discusses the room for > improvement in Afghanistan, you'll have to buy the > article from The Economsit. :)
I added a few links on that. >http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displayStory.cfm?subject > id=796681&story_id=1524657 > > So far, yes. Afghanistan is better off than it was a > year ago. The country > is at peace, by its own standards... Is that the peace of warlords who are fighting for control of the country outside of Kabul and a few other cities? I'm really not trying to be snide here, but having to run a gauntlet of various armed factions outside of the major cities is not in my definition of a country at peace. The article/report you cited in the 'Post-Iraq Plans' thread states, "One purpose of a U.S. military government in Iraq would be to avoid a repeat of the instability that has occurred in Afghanistan with the fall of the Taliban regime, officials said." Regarding that: a 2/05/03 report/article: "...UN workers have been the target of a string of attacks in recent weeks. In the past fortnight a demining team was attacked by an armed gang in the western province of Farah, World Food Programme employees were stopped by armed gunman south of Kabul, a bomb exploded on the roof of an empty UN office in the northern city of Mazar-i-Sharif and a UN convoy was attacked in eastern Nangarhar province. "The security is not yet stable, we have episodes of violence ranging from inter-factional fighting to crime, terrorism and that is a concern," UN spokesman Manoel de Almeida e Silva said Sunday. Last week the UN's special envoy to Afghanistan Lakhdar Brahimi told the UN Security Council that support for the former ruling Taliban militia, ousted in 2001 by an international military campaign, was re-emerging. "We continue to hear worrying reports that support for the remnants of the Taliban may be growing in some areas of Afghanistan," he said." http://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/480fa8736b88bbc3c12564f6004c8ad5/4e142663f90b424ec1256cc400405544?OpenDocument Many other articles are linked from this page http://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/vLCE/Afghanistan?OpenDocument&StartKey=Afghanistan&Expandview > ...The World Bank broadly applauds > its [the loyajirga's] reconstruction strategy and > efforts to stimulate the private sector. Strategy and efforts are laudable, but need money and power to back them. > A new national currency, the afghani, has been > successfully introduced. > Several cities have a mobile phone system. Major > infrastructure projects > have started; some, such as the reconstruction of > the Salang tunnel linking > the north of the country with the south, will be > completed in 2003. > > In public at least, Afghanistan has the support of > neighbouring countries; > none of them wants to dismember it. Iran and > Pakistan, long at loggerheads > over what sort of government Afghanistan should > have, agreed to let Afghans > decide. Pakistan has signed a deal with Turkmenistan > and Afghanistan to > build a $3.2 billion gas pipeline through > Afghanistan. A recent donors' > conference in Oslo pledged $1.2 billion in aid to > Afghanistan for 2003; > Norwegian diplomats hope the realised sum may be > closer to $2 billion. Some > 3m Afghan children are back in school, double the > number the United Nations > predicted. The remnants of al-Qaeda and the Taliban > hiding in tribal areas > along the Pakistani border have fewer friends than > they did a year ago. > They are scattered and on the run; shipments of > weapons destined for them > have been regularly intercepted... See the Feb 5 '03 article I cited above. A UN report agrees that the people are better off than under the Taliban (duh!), but major problems - which will require major effort to correct - abound: http://wwww.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/9ca65951ee22658ec125663300408599/d178542fcabc4e36c1256c6f0054f9ab?OpenDocument "Contrasted with the situation in Afghanistan less than a year ago, the humanitarian situation has improved immeasurably. Over 1.7 million refugees and 400,000 internally displaced have returned to their communities of origin in 2002, attesting to their belief in a future climate of stability and economic opportunity. Reconstruction activities are underway in many rural communities and cities throughout the country. However, immense challenges remain. Despite a good harvest in 2002, the effects of years of conflict, drought, isolation and impoverishment still affect millions of Afghans. Some 2.2 million Afghans are highly vulnerable to the expected effects of the harsh winter weather and are receiving emergency food aid and support for shelter and warmth to combat the cold. After 23 years of conflict, social service infrastructure is fragile at best. Basic health facilities and schools have been destroyed. Child and maternal mortality rates are among the highest in the world. Literacy rates, for men and women, boys and girls, are among the world's lowest. Yet throughout recent years, massive social mobilisation has brought Afghanistan close to polio eradication, while at least three million children returned to school in 2002, emphasising the huge demand for learning by Afghans in all walks of life. Finally, Afghanistan remains one of the most heavily mined countries in the world. Capacity for mine action increased markedly in 2002 but enormous efforts and investment in this sector will be required for years to come." One NGO (Save the Chilren) has outlined health needs as they see them: http://www.savethechildren.org/press/afghan_minister.shtml "--70 percent of existing primary care clinics are unable to provide even basic mother and child services; --90 percent of hospitals do not have the complete equipment to perform C-sections; --40 percent of all basic health facilities do not have female staff --more than 25 percent of children die before their fifth birthday; --40 percent of child deaths are due to the preventable causes of diarrhea and acute respiratory infections...” “What’s on paper must be put into action,” said Bruce Rasmussmen, Operations Director for Save the Children’s programs in Afghanistan and Pakistan who spoke at the briefing. “The U.S. government must follow through on its commitment to Afghanistan by providing the necessary funding for effective and affordable health programs. The health and survival of mothers and children depends on it.” Rebuilding Afghanistan will cost roughly $15 billion over the next ten years...The United States pledged $297 million in Tokyo and has already more than met its initial one-year commitment to Afghan reconstruction. In the spirit of President Bush’s earlier call for a ‘Marshall Plan for Afghanistan,’ Congress passed the Afghan Freedom Support Act in November 2002, which would allocate $2.3 billion over the next four years. The questions that remain are whether the government will make the money available and whether health will be a priority." The environment is in real trouble: http://postconflict.unep.ch/pressafghanistanjan2003.htm "Kabul, Nairobi, January 29, 2003 - Two decades of warfare in Afghanistan have degraded the environment to the extent it now presents a major stumbling block for the country's reconstruction efforts. A United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Post-Conflict Environment Assessment report, produced in close cooperation with the Afghanistan Transitional Authority and released today, shows how conflict has put previous environmental management and conservation strategies on hold, brought about a collapse of local and national governance, destroyed infrastructure, hindered agricultural activity and driven people into cities already lacking the most basic public amenities. Three to four years of drought have compounded a state of widespread and serious resource degradation: lowered water tables, dried up wetlands, denuded forests, eroded land and depleted wildlife populations. With two million returning refugees in 2002 and a further 1.5 million expected this year, pressure on Afghanistan's natural resources and environmental services are set to increase further... ...In a plastic recycling/shoe factory in Kabul the assessment team found children working without protection from toxic chemicals and sleeping at machines, or in factory alcoves, between their 12 hours shifts... ...Today local communities have lost control of their resources [forests] in these eastern provinces with warlords, 'timber barons' and foreign traders controlling illegal and highly lucrative logging operations... ..."UNEP's post-conflict environment assessment illuminates Afghanistan's current levels of degradation, and sets forth a path that the country can take towards sustainable development. It warns us of a future without water, forests, wildlife and clean air if environmental problems are not addressed in the reconstruction period," Minister Nuristani said." (and I didn't excerpt problems like overgrazing or hunting of endangered animals such as the snow leopard.) I do not think that these are insurmountable problems; my concern is that ignoring or Band-Aiding these problems will result in an unstable situation down the road (again - since the US largely abandoned Afghanistan after we enabled the muhajedeen (sp?) to oust the Russians, which led to the Taliban's rise). They require a serious commitment of manpower and money. If the American military rolls over the Iraqi defenses in short order (quite possible; much depends on the regular Iraqi man-in-the-street: if he is secretly glad SH is gone, there will be cheering, but if he truly hates Americans, there will be bloody urban warfare. I have no idea where he stands.), Iraq should be in a much better position than Afghanistan re: resources, but factions do exist within the country and it will require a firm hand to keep things stable until a new government can be created. Is there a reasonable estimate of how many years that will take? The US government had better stay the course, whether years or decades... And now I think I've cross-threaded into 'War and Peace,' where others are expressing my views much more articulately, so I'll stop. :) Debbi __________________________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now. http://mailplus.yahoo.com _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
