I've been reading the news for the last few days, and I've seen the following trends
1) The US will go to war with allies without a UN sanction 2) NATO will not cooperate, even to the extent of officially protecting Turkey...until after the war starts, which is too late 3) Public opinion will continue to be split between the US and Europe. Polling indicates that on the general question of war, without the qualifier of with or with the UN, the US is roughly 2-1 for, and Europe is roughly 4-1 against. The governmental leaders who support the US are doing so at risk of losing the next election or, in Blair's case, being ousted by his own party. So, one could extrapolate to a world where: 1) NATO is effectively broken 2) The UN is relegated to the same importance of the League of Nations 3) The EU is in turmoil. 4) The decline of the special relationship between the US and Europe (which is natural as the US has fewer people who consider their roots in Europe (or has people who consider their roots less in Europe) is accelerated. As a result, I see two possibilities, based on whether the US is sucessful or unsucessful in managing the peace. 1) Sucessful: The US sees itself as the sole champion of liberty and listens even less to the rest of the world. "Look what would have happened if we listened to you in Iraq. Who needs sidewalk superintendants?" 2) Failure: The US sees that intervention doesn't work, it stops pushing, and sees its self interest as promoting Fortress America. When there is trouble, like an invasion of one country by another, the US refuses to intervene again. Of course, without the US to lead, nothing happens. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
