Reading between the lines here, basically what
happened is this: a country whose leadership supports
the war, but faces unhappiness with the war among its
own people and/or possible diplomatic retribution from
France is going to be unlikely, ceteris paribis, to
vote for a resolution when it knows that its "yes
vote" won't count anyways due to the veto. Since the
UNSC votes in English alphabetic order, France would
thus have the opportunity to veto very early, and
nations with a vote before "F", i.e. Chile and
Cameroon, could simply wait to pass first before
seeing if France would vote "no." Thus, the French
veto really did "poison" the discussions, since it
made the opinions of the "undecideds" essentially
unknowable.
JDG
IRAQ: U.S., U.K., Spain Withdraw Resolution; Annan
Orders U.N. Staff To Leave, Niger May Have Forged
Documents, Iraqis Lead World in Asylum-Seeking
UN WIRE
The United States, the United Kingdom and Spain this
morning took a major step toward launching war against
Iraq, withdrawing their faltering resolution at the
Security Council and declaring that they "reserve the
right to take their own steps to secure the
disarmament of Iraq," according to British Ambassador
to the United Nations Jeremy Greenstock.
Before the ambassadors of the three countries entered
a closed Security Council session this morning on
Iraq, Greenstock announced, "We have had to conclude
that council consensus will not be possible," adding
that the three countries would therefore not seek a
vote on the draft resolution. "One country in
particular has underlined its intention to veto a
resolution no matter what the circumstances,"
Greenstock said, referring to France without naming
the country. France, which supports more time for
weapons inspections rather than an attack on Iraq, has
repeatedly said it would veto the resolution if a vote
was called (CNN.com, March 17).
French President Jacques Chirac said in a CBS 60
Minutes interview broadcast yesterday that Paris "will
naturally go to the end" with its refusal to back an
Iraq war. He proposed giving Iraqi President Saddam
Hussein 30 more days to comply with U.N. disarmament
resolutions, an offer U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney
dismissed as "further delaying tactics" (Bob Kemper,
Chicago Tribune, March 17).
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Negroponte
today said nearly 4½ months have passed since the
council unanimously passed Resolution 1441, which
declared Iraq in "material breach" of its obligations
under previous resolutions to disarm. "The government
of Iraq has clearly failed to comply," Negroponte
said. "Through acts of omission as well as
commission, Iraq is in further material breach."
Negroponte added that "the vote would have been close"
but that "in the face of an explicit threat to veto,
the vote-counting became a secondary consideration."
When asked if he believed the three countries would
have received the needed nine votes from among the 15
council members to pass their resolution, Greenstock
said that the threat of a veto affected the framework
of discussion about the resolution.
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said the
withdrawn resolution "was not a resolution we believed
was necessary" but was "one last step" to see if
Hussein would disarm.
"The United Nations is an important institution, and
it will survive," Powell said, "but clearly, this was
a test the Security Council did not meet." He added
that Hussein was able to "thumb his nose" at
Resolution 1441.
A couple of hours after the U.S.-British-Spanish
announcement, U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan
announced that he was withdrawing U.N. weapons
inspectors and aid workers from Iraq. "We will find a
way" to resume aid to the country, Annan said.
"The council will have to give me a mandate to
continue activities in Iraq," Annan said, adding that
pulling out U.N. staff does not mean the end of U.N.
operations in Iraq.
Syrian U.N. Ambassador Mikhail Wehbe said withdrawing
weapons inspectors from Iraq has "a very dangerous
implication -- it means there are no more
inspections."
Wehbe also confirmed to reporters that a ministerial
meeting on the Iraq crisis is scheduled for Wednesday
(Angela Stephens, UN Wire, March 17).
ElBaradei said today that Washington advised him last
night to "pull out our inspectors from Baghdad." U.N.
officials said the inspectors and support staff could
be evacuated from Iraq in as little as 48 hours. The
IAEA said it would wait for Security Council advice
today before deciding whether to pull out. U.N.
Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission
Executive Chairman Hans Blix said UNMOVIC inspectors
will continue their work in Iraq "unless we call them
back."
Most of the inspectors' helicopters have already left
Iraq after their insurance was canceled (William Kole,
Associated Press/Yahoo! News, March 17).
U.N. Iraq-Kuwait Observer Mission employees began
pulling out of the Iraqi-Kuwaiti border zone today
after their alert status was increased to level 4,
which entails ceasing all operations (CNN.com, March
17).
German Ambassador Gunter Pleuger said his country,
France and Russia, which have tried to block the
U.S.-British-Spanish move toward war on Iraq, "share
the goal of the international community to disarm
Iraq" and do not see a need to halt weapons
inspections that he said are showing signs of
succeeding. He said the three countries are trying to
"make a last-ditch effort" to avoid war.
Pleuger also said Blix is ready to give us the council
his program of work this afternoon (Stephens, UN
Wire).
Meanwhile, Hussein said today that Iraq previously had
weapons of mass destruction for defensive purposes but
no longer has any (AP/Yahoo News, March 17).
Today's action from the United States, the United
Kingdom and Spain came after their leaders agreed
yesterday at a summit in Portugal's Azores islands
that today would be, in the words of U.S. President
George W. Bush, "a moment of truth for the world" as
it seeks to "determine whether or not diplomacy can
work" to defuse the Iraq crisis.
Bush, British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Spanish
Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar said they would launch
a last-ditch push to convince other U.N. Security
Council members to support their resolution to
authorize an attack against Iraq. Bush said the
resolution could be withdrawn and invasion planning
could begin, though, if the three countries do not
appear to have the nine council votes needed for
passage of the resolution or if France maintains its
threat to veto the measure.
"What we cannot have is a situation where we simply go
back for endless discussion," Blair said after the
meeting. "Now is the time when we have to decide"
(Kemper, Chicago Tribune).
In a joint statement issued after the meeting, the
three leaders said that "if [Iraqi President] Saddam
[Hussein] refuses even now to cooperate fully with the
United Nations," they "would undertake a solemn
obligation to help the Iraqi people build a new Iraq
at peace with itself and its neighbors," supporting
"the Iraqi people's aspirations for a representative
government that upholds human rights and the rule of
law as cornerstones of democracy."
The three said they "plan to work in close partnership
with international institutions, including the United
Nations, our allies and partners and bilateral
donors," adding, "If conflict occurs, we plan to seek
the adoption, on an urgent basis, of new United
Nations Security Council resolutions that would affirm
Iraq's territorial integrity, ensure rapid delivery of
humanitarian relief and endorse an appropriate
post-conflict administration for Iraq. We will also
propose that the secretary general be given authority,
on an interim basis, to ensure that the humanitarian
needs of the Iraqi people continue to be met through
the oil-for-food program" (White House release, March
16).
The Wall Street Journal reports today, however, that a
Bush plan to rebuild Iraq, according to confidential
documents, would leave U.N. agencies and other
multilateral bodies on the sidelines (Neil King, Wall
Street Journal, March 17).
In a second statement, Bush, Blair and Aznar affirmed
their "commitment to trans-Atlantic solidarity" (White
House release II, March 16).
Blix said yesterday that the Azores summit yielded a
"slightly divided" message. "President Bush seems to
be talking mainly about how to liberate Iraq and make
sure they have no weapons left there," he said, but
Blair and Aznar "are giving more weight to having a
last chance to unite the world" (sky.com, March 16).
Hussein said yesterday that Iraq will fight "wherever
there is land, sky or water" if it is attacked (Hamza
Hendawi, AP/Yahoo! News, March 17). On Saturday, Iraq
invited Blix and International Atomic Energy Agency
head Mohamed ElBaradei to come to Baghdad "at the
earliest suitable date" to discuss outstanding
disarmament concerns (Rajiv Chandrasekaran, Washington
Post, March 16).
Niger Embassy In Italy Reportedly Forged Documents For
U.S.
Someone in Niger's embassy in Rome probably produced
forged documents that Washington used to bolster its
case against Iraq, a source close to a U.N.
investigation into the matter told the Chicago
Tribune. The documents indicate that Niger agreed to
give Iraq uranium that could be used to produce
nuclear weapons. IAEA officials found discrepancies
in the documents that led them to believe they were
faked.
An IAEA spokeswoman said the agency does not blame the
United States or the United Kingdom in the affair.
"We believe it was given to us in good faith," she
said. "It doesn't seem that it was fabricated by
British or American intelligence agencies in order to
make a case."
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said last week,
"It was the information that we had. We provided it.
If that information is inaccurate, fine" (Sam Roe,
Chicago Tribune, March 16).
Senator Jay Rockefeller, the senior Democrat on the
Senate Intelligence Committee, on Friday asked the FBI
to investigate whether the United States was involved
in creating the forgeries.
Other U.S. claims have also been questioned in recent
weeks, including charges that Iraq has aluminum tubes
for a nuclear program, drones that could deliver
chemical or biological weapons, mobile biological
laboratories and chemical bunkers (Donnelly/Neuffer,
Boston Globe, March 16).
Bush administration officials and members of Congress
cited in yesterday's Washington Post said U.S.
intelligence agencies have been unable to give
legislators or the Defense Department specific
information about the amounts of banned weapons Iraq
may have or where the weapons may be hidden. One
official cited a "lack of hard facts," while another
said the administration has offered "only
circumstantial evidence" (Walter Pincus, Washington
Post, March 16).
UNHCR Says Iraqis Constitute Largest Group Of Asylum
Seekers
The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees said Friday
that Iraqis last year constituted the largest group of
asylum seekers in the world, replacing Afghans.
The agency said 51,000 Iraqis applied for asylum in 37
industrialized countries last year. The figure
exceeds the 2001 number by only 600 asylum seekers,
but a sharp drop in Afghan asylum seekers, from 52,800
in 2001 to 25,700 last year, left Iraqis at the top of
the list (UNHCR release, March 14).
Refugees International wrote U.N. Secretary General
Kofi Annan Friday to call on him to "make UNHCR the
lead agency for IDPs [internally displaced persons] in
Iraq" (Refugees International release, March 14).
=====
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John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Tonight I have a message for the brave and oppressed people of Iraq:
Your enemy is not surrounding your country — your enemy is ruling your
country. And the day he and his regime are removed from power will be
the day of your liberation." -George W. Bush 1/29/03
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