From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
In a message dated 7/8/2003 6:09:54 PM Eastern Standard Time, Julia Thompson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:
>Speaking of sports, anyone else following the Tour de France? If anyone
>who knows more about cycling than I do (which isn't very much, aside
>from having read Lance Armstrong's _It's Not About the Bike_ and knowing
>where his house near Lake Austin is and thinking he's just incredible)
>and would like to give me analyses off-list (unless there's a general
>clamor for it to be on-list), I'd be keenly interested. :)
I'm following it, but it's way too early to really get into it. Lance Armstrong is currently in 12th place, 19 seconds behind the leader, but this race doesn't really start to mean anything until it moves up into the mountains, which is where Armstrong usually leaves his competition minutes behind, not seconds. They say in American team sports that a playoff series doesn't really begin until the home team loses a game; the last few years, the Tour De France doesn't mean a thing until, if ever, Lance Armstrong is beaten in the mountains.
I'm cheering for Lance, but for some reason I have a feeling that this isn't going to be his year. Maybe part of it was I read a brief interview with him after the Prologue (a time trial), in which he said things didn't feel right or something of the sort. I had thought part of his domination in previous years wasn't just due to his strong mountain stages, but also his time trial stages. Maybe another part of it is that the press seems to think he's almost a lock to win it again.
I don't like breaking up a post, so everything will be down here. Julia: Maybe you could post something about his marital discord that he and his wife went through this spring, since fixed. Not really, but when that's given as a reason for him not having a great spring, I have to wonder if the reporters are grasping at straws or even if LA himself put that out as a feint.
When Jon had his little rant about books into movies and actors who play the roles, I agreed with him and feel the same way about sporting matches. I do go with friends or sit here at home rooting for sporting events, but a lot of people I know actively feel that if they aren't watching, it won't go well for their team. I remind them that if the TV was turned off, the score would still be the same. I'm not changing my view, but I do feel that fans at the game can help their team a little because some players say the fans energize them.
TDF analysis: So what does that have to do with the TDF? That there is nothing I can say that will matter a hill of beans. There are maybe seven to twelve riders that have a shot of winning the overall title. If none of them crash, gets a flat, or gets sick; then it will be very close between Jan Ullrich and LA. But anything can happen. Look at Ullrich's crash last year. It's a miracle he didn't die. (If you don't know about it, he went off the road on a descent, jumped off his bike which sailed into the ether.)
The biggest difference will be today, the team time trial, my favorite stage. (There's a clip, from years ago, that shows the Motorola team near the end, and even then all the riders, wearing matching everything, even shoes, were pedaling in sequence, all the feet going up and down at the same time.) Each team starts together at five minute intervals, and the time is given when the fifth man crosses the line, for the first five riders. The USPS team knows this and trains for this event. All teams train together, but not all put as much effort into this stage. Looking at the first stage, USPS had a slight advantage over Ullrich's team, but not by much. This will be a day when things get shaken out.
Of course there are the mountains. Everyone made assumptions last year at LA looking back at Ullrich and riding away from him. Lance swears he was looking behind Ullrich, that he didn't think he'd drop him and wasn't trying to psyche him out. This year Ullrich is leaner. Did he train hard on the big hills? I'm sure he did.
I can add more, about other riders, but have to leave for work. For now: today is important, and overall it's a race between LA and JU.
Kevin T. - VRWC
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