> From: John D. Giorgis <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > At 05:43 AM 1/1/2004 -0600 The Fool wrote: > >The Spin, 'New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure'. > > > ><<http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=530&e=1&u=/ap/20031231/ a > >p_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy>> > > > >"The Labor Department (news - web sites) reported Wednesday that new > >applications filed for unemployment insurance dropped by a seasonally > >adjusted 15,000 to 339,000 for the week ending Dec. 27." > > > >The reality: ETA Press Release: Unemployment Insurance > > > ><<http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm>> > > > >Weekly Claims Report: > > > >"The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, > >unadjusted, totaled 516,501 in the week ending Dec. 27, an increase of > >91,785 from the previous week. There were 620,929 initial claims in the > >comparable week in 2002." > > Sorry, Fool, but you're not going to get very far among the economic > statistical community by arguing that seasonal adjustment is > inappropriate.... or even crazier, is somehow politically manipulated.
This is why we say lies, damned lies and statistics. The Real number of people making new claims this week is ~520k, the Real number of people making new claims Last week is ~430k. The Real Trend is upwards by ~90k. And Yet this ~520k is magically the 'Lowest of Bush Tenure' which it plainly is not. Through the magic wand of seasonal adjustment the trend upwards by ~90k becomes a trend downwards of ~15k. Not a very good statistical model IMNSHO. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
