> From: Ronn!Blankenship <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > At 09:22 AM 2/28/04, Steve Sloan II wrote: > >Travis Edmunds wrote: > > > > > Do you mean (A) singualarity? If so, I saw one the other night > > > on TNG. If not...then could you explain? I probably am familiar > > > with what you speak of, but it's not exactly rolling of my > > > tongue. > > > >The Singularity Robert's talking about is metaphorically like a > >black hole-type singularity, because you can't see in from outside. > >The idea is that computing technology (and other technologies as > >well) has been increasing in speed and power exponentially. > >Assuming that exponential curve continues at the same rate, > >computers should have the raw processing power of a human brain > >in about 30 years or so, give or take a year or two. Moore's Law > >suggests that 18 months later, they'll be equivalent to 2 brains, > >then 18 months later, 4 brains, then 8 brains, 16 brains, etc. In > >the course of a few years, that effect should change society so > >much and so rapidly that people living before it happens can't > >even comprehend it, much less predict its effects with any > >reliability. > > > >Vernor Vinge is the main author who promoted the idea in science > >fiction, and serious stories since then have had to react to it. > >They either have to explain why it didn't happen in the particular > >far future society they're writing about > > > > Perhaps because some working in the AI field were predicting the same thing > thirty years ago, and like controlled fusion as a commercially feasible
> power source, thirty years later it is still thirty years away? The difference is that computer processor speed / # of transistors, RAM Size and Hard-Disk storage have all _continued_ doubling every 18 or so months, and will continue to do so. It's actually slightly faster than that (there are two exponents, the rate of doubling is also increasing if more slowly). Apparently the top Chess-AI Programs increase in Chess Rating at about 50 points per year. Only a few more years where a human can win or draw a computer before being completely bypassed. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
