----- Original Message ----- From: "Doug Pensinger" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Tuesday, April 27, 2004 11:05 PM Subject: Re: Collected thoughs on Iraq
> Dan wrote: > > > Given this, I would argue that public opinion is very volatile. It can > > easily swing against the US. The natural tendency is against the US, and > > it takes a tremendous amount of work to slow the slide in that direction. > > The longer we are in control, the more difficult it will be....especially > > if we do not guarantee security for the people. > > I've been wondering about the effacacy of polls in a place like Iraq. > These are people that are used to give the "correct" answers to questions > with out regard to how they really feel, don't you think that there is at > least some segment of the population that responds in this manner even if > promised anonymity? > There are probably larger systematic errors in this poll than in a US poll, that is true. And, the errors would be in the direction the people would expect their answers to be desired. IIRC, efforts are made to minimize these errors. The actual people doing the polls are local, to the best of my knowledge. An effort is made to put the people at ease. Still, I think that expecting some bias towards the people who are in power is not unreasonable. Even with that, trends should be fairly valid. Dan M.
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