----- Original Message ----- From: "JDG" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Saturday, August 28, 2004 9:26 PM Subject: The Next Superpower Re: AIDs in Africa
> At 09:03 PM 8/28/2004 -0500 Dan Minette wrote: > >One interesting thing on the way home...we were speculating on who the next > >superpower might be. She said that the US has done plenty of things wrong, > >but she shudders to think of the other candidates taking over as the > >biggest power. > > First, I would say that the US has sole claim on the title "superpower" > essentially locked up for the next 50 years. I would also say that the US > has a very strong inside track for the next 50-100 years after that. You are probably right, in that timeframe, but there are always risks in predicting in that timeframe. Enough can happen in 50 years so that essentially locked up may be an overstatement. > In terms of potential next superpowers, the only real possibilities I could > see are: > > 1) China > 2) India > 3) United States of Europe We talked about that. I'd rank it 1) India 2) China 3) An Arab superpower 4) USE. We switched 1 and 2 from yours basically due to population trends. China should be trending downward in 50 years, with India still increasing. The chances of China having a major upheaval increase, since their best ecconomic center is at odds with its goverment. The Tawain problem could also hit China. India is in a much better position to benefit from global trade, since they speak the world language of commerce: English. An Arab superpower can happen. If a reasonable worst case scenero occurs, we'll have a government run by AQ or AQ fellow travelers in SA. With ~400 million a day in gross oil revenues, a lot can happen with that money. They should be able to buy the ability to have nuclear weapons...from France if from nowhere else. With the same reasonable worst case scenario > And even in those cases, it is hard to see any of them moving into anything > more than a "tie" with the United States in the next 100-150 years. That's true if things keep going smoothly. That's one reason I told Neli that the US is in a position to favor stable liberal democracies with bustling ecconomies in the world...they are in our best interest. But, I can think of scenarios where this won't work. They aren't pleasant ones at all. From a biased African point of view, Neli wants the US to be the superpower for a long time. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
