At this point, it is hard to see how Kerry wins FL. Overall, Bush is up
300,000 votes.
Based on assuming that the remaining precincts in Broward, West Palm Beach,
and Miami-Dade report for Kerry at the same rate as the currently reported
precincts (97%, 84%, and 94%, respectfully), Kerry only picks up only
83,000 votes. I should clarify that this projection is based on two
questionable assumptions - namely that the remaining precincts will vote in
the same propotion for Kerry as the previous precincts - not necessarily
true, and that the remaining precincts will have approximately the same
number of votes per precinct as the previously reported precincts - also
*very* not necessarily true. Nevertheless, the fact that this projection
produces such a stark gap for Kerry has to be very troubling, as that is a
long shot that those missing precincts will be *that* large.
Additionally, no other county that Kerry is currently winning has *any*
remaining precincts. Moreover, this doesn't account for Bush's general
advantage among absentee voters (guesstimates are that Bush will pick up a
minimum of 100,000 votes in this group) and those remaining precincts in
rural counties.
Look for Florida to be called by 1am..... and as I have posted earlier, if
Bush gets FL, Kerry has to either pull a mild upset in NM or IA, or else
run the table.... Bush meanwhile would be 20 EV's away with OH, MI, WI,
MN, IA, OR, NM, NH, and HI left to call..... OH, of course is 20 EV's.....
JDG
_______________________________________________________
John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED]
"The liberty we prize is not America's gift to the world,
it is God's gift to humanity." - George W. Bush 1/29/03
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