----- Original Message ----- From: "Richard Baker" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Tuesday, November 09, 2004 1:32 PM Subject: Re: Brin: Purple America
> > This also is true. The important thing, though, is not the gap between > the US and EU militaries, but between the EU militaries and anybody > they're likely to fight. It seems to me (although I'm not even remotely > a military analyst!) that the gap in effectiveness between European > forces and those of potential adversaries is increasing in size even if > not at the rate at which American forces are gaining in relative > superiority. I can understand this, but one question remains to me. In the '90s, Western European forces were ineffective projecting force as far as Bosnia. When the trouble in the Balkins was started, Europe gave every indication of wanting to take the lead, and I felt that this was a very reasonable policy. For a number of reasons, including political ones of course, they didn't take the lead, and required the US to handle the situation. Indeed, the Dutchbat report criticized Clinton for not ordering Europe around. This was the foundation of my point. Europe's inability to project force now is political as well as material. In 11 years, they may have advanced to the point that, given unbelievable political union and an a US which is unwilling to help, they can project force to enforce their will on one subject or another. But, it is also apparent to me that the relative power of Europe should start declining very soon. The EU has grown by accepting Eastern Europe, but the last real target for expansion is a rapidly shrinking Russia (the European public won't stand for Turkey in the EU). Maybe there will be a brief window (say '15 to '25) where Europe can back up an independant foreign policy with the ability to project force, but I think that it will fade long before the US stops being the lone superpower. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
