----- Original Message ----- From: "Dave Land" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <brin-l@mccmedia.com> Sent: Monday, April 18, 2005 2:18 PM Subject: Re: Peaceful change L3
> On Apr 17, 2005, at 7:32 PM, Gautam Mukunda wrote: > > > Lincoln's last great speech, and the one that seems to have best > > expressed his intentions, says it best - "With malice towards none, > > with > > charity for all, _with firmess in the right as God gives us to see the > > right_, let us strive on to finish the work we are in..." > > > > With firmness in the right. > > "... as God gives us to see the right." > > This elision is telling, and is for me the crux of the problem. > > Too often, we fail to remember that we only see so far, that our > certainties are only so certain. > > > Lincoln contained multitudes, but none of those multitudes can > > plausibly > > be enlisted in an argument that we should sit on our hands in the face > > of great evil. > > And this is a result of that failure: the oversimplification of complex > issues. Who, is it -- citations, please -- is arguing that we should sit > on our hands in the face of great evil? It's not that we should sit on our hands, exactly....but that is close to a first order approximation when it comes to stopping Hussein within Iraq. As of 2003 we had 1) dealt Hussein an embarassing defeat 2) strong sanctions 3) off and on inspections 4) no fly zones over most of Iraq 5) multiple Security Council resolutions condemning his actions. The consensus in '91 was that this would probably be enough to get him knocked out of power. I thought that in '91. But, in '03, it appears that the consensus was wrong. After 12 years of enduring some of the strongest measures short of war that could be devised, there was no evidence that Hussein's grip on Iraq had weakened. Thus, a wide range of people (including me) concluded that containment could limit the damage Hussein could do outside of Iraq, but that there was minimal evidence that it was leading to the fall of Hussein and/or the Bathists. Therefor, it is not reasonable to suggest that simply a different type of condemnation in Euorpe would have much of an affect on his grip on power. > Urge cautious language and be accused of cowardice and/or pretense. > Urge cautious action and stand accused of inaction. It's not cautious language that bothers me, it is vauge language. > Isn't the world more complex than this? The world is complex, and one cannot solve problems in political science the way one does in physics, but I think there are some things that can be done. For example, I assign a high probability to the following statements. "Since 12 years of containment has not weakened Hussein's grip on power, but instead has brought condemnation to those that have been containing him, the probability that further containment will result in Hussein's downfall is low." "Since the Republican Guard has kept Hussein in power through intimidation and the force of arms, and since there is no evidence that this Guard gives high regard to pronouncements in the Hague, such a pronouncement has a low probability of causing his removal from power." >From these two statements I deduced a conclusion: "Everyone who thinks that continued containment is the best option needs to be aware of the likelihood that there is a significant negative consequence to this: Hussein will continue his murder and torture in Iraq during the containment. Tens of thousands will be killed each year and millions will live in fear." Now, as I think I've stated in most of my posts in this thread, "Everyone who thinks that continued containment is the best option" includes me. I said before the war that containment was the preferred option, and I have not changed my mind on that in over two years. But, I consider it a matter of intellectual honesty to critically review the negative aspects of _my own_ choice as well as choices I differ with. In short, I think it is reasonable for me to ask others who were opposed to invading to either show how an option like the 6-point plan has a reasonable chance of overthrowing Hussein or join me in acknowledging that what we advocate, as well as what we reject, has significant negative consequences. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
